Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner - page 27.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: Tirapon on November 26, 2013, 06:07:51 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on November 26, 2013, 03:47:11 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: rpietila on November 26, 2013, 02:34:44 PM

We are so far from mass adoption that it is not even funny.

That's very true. But I think you need to account for alt coins. LTC is at 2% of BTC now and who knows where it will be later. The more widespread BTC becomes there more widespread other alt coins become so it isn't really 21million coin cap. Someone who starts a popular alt coin and retains 10-20% might equate to 1% of BTC.

Actually LTC is at 8% of Bitcoin as there is a 4 time larger supply. I kinda think it's overpriced.

LTC market cap is $350 million, BTC is $10 billion. There are currently twice as many LTC as BTC, of course that ratio will change due to LTC having faster block rewards. If LTC were to capture 10% of BTC market share at this point, for a total cap of $1 billion, then price would be $40.

21 M : 84 M
1 : 4

It's not that important how many there are right now. Total supply is vastly more influential.

Tirapon

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Quote from: wachtwoord on November 26, 2013, 03:47:11 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: rpietila on November 26, 2013, 02:34:44 PM

We are so far from mass adoption that it is not even funny.

That's very true. But I think you need to account for alt coins. LTC is at 2% of BTC now and who knows where it will be later. The more widespread BTC becomes there more widespread other alt coins become so it isn't really 21million coin cap. Someone who starts a popular alt coin and retains 10-20% might equate to 1% of BTC.

Actually LTC is at 8% of Bitcoin as there is a 4 time larger supply. I kinda think it's overpriced.

LTC market cap is $350 million, BTC is $10 billion. There are currently twice as many LTC as BTC, of course that ratio will change due to LTC having faster block rewards. If LTC were to capture 10% of BTC market share at this point, for a total cap of $1 billion, then price would be $40.

FiatKiller

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I find this thread very encouraging. I used to think I was late to the game not having accumulated coin prior to the ASIC revolution, but seeing that I am in the top 100K of holders worldwide is not bad at all. Planning on hording for sure now. I was converting some into silver, and wish I had those bitcoins now. Live and learn!

Rassah

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Quote from: User705 on November 26, 2013, 05:49:30 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: rpietila on November 26, 2013, 02:34:44 PM

We are so far from mass adoption that it is not even funny.

That's very true. But I think you need to account for alt coins. LTC is at 2% of BTC now and who knows where it will be later. The more widespread BTC becomes there more widespread other alt coins become so it isn't really 21million coin cap. Someone who starts a popular alt coin and retains 10-20% might equate to 1% of BTC.

Actually if you read it, altcoins were included. An altcoin with 10-20% premine won't fly tho.

It doesn't need to be premised to retain 10-20%. Bitcoin is infinitely duplicatable and more copies are bound to keep coming up as bitcoin keeps growing. Since one can't predict which copy wins out in the end large holders must continuously diversify into new coins. This is OT and obviously implies greater bitcoin growth for this to even become an issue.

That ignored the network effect, which not only involved users and vendors, but also all the top developers and security experts. In other words, there is a higher risk of something going wrong with currencies other than bitcoin.

User705

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First 100% Liquid Stablecoin Backed by Gold

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: rpietila on November 26, 2013, 02:34:44 PM

We are so far from mass adoption that it is not even funny.

That's very true. But I think you need to account for alt coins. LTC is at 2% of BTC now and who knows where it will be later. The more widespread BTC becomes there more widespread other alt coins become so it isn't really 21million coin cap. Someone who starts a popular alt coin and retains 10-20% might equate to 1% of BTC.

Actually if you read it, altcoins were included. An altcoin with 10-20% premine won't fly tho.

It doesn't need to be premised to retain 10-20%. Bitcoin is infinitely duplicatable and more copies are bound to keep coming up as bitcoin keeps growing. Since one can't predict which copy wins out in the end large holders must continuously diversify into new coins. This is OT and obviously implies greater bitcoin growth for this to even become an issue.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: wachtwoord on November 26, 2013, 02:42:15 PM

I like your posts so much man. Claiming you only need 5 BTC to be in the top 29,000 people Grin

The wealthy will inherit the Earth! Grin

Wasn't it your link in the first place?? I just recompiled the information.. Grin

It was. Nice to see it expressed in absolute numbers though. You should add that this is about net worth though and even if Bitcoin "takes over" people will continue to own have some sort of other valuables as long as we are corporal Wink

Rassah

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Quote from: wachtwoord on November 26, 2013, 02:42:15 PM

The wealthy will inherit the Earth! Grin

Why inherit, when you can just buy it Grin

Adrian-x

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Quote from: rpietila on November 26, 2013, 02:59:54 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: rpietila on November 26, 2013, 02:34:10 PM

Let us assume that Bitcoin has completely taken over as a currency, and is now used worldwide. Because the emergence of Bitcoin has made commerce boom, the world GDP has grown such that bitcoins alone account for as much value as the physical and financial world did in 2012.

The world uses other methods for everyday payments. Bitcoins themselves are used for large transactions only and a measured in units of mBTC. The wealth is distributed in a similar way as in the article, but to quite different people.

In this order,
* the top 29,000 people would have 5,000mBTC or more, a huge fortune comparable to 100 million of today's dollars.
* the top 1 million people would have 500mBTC or more, corresponding to 10 million or more dollars
* 29 million people have at least 50mBTC, which puts them among the most affluent 0.6%, previously called 'millionaires'
* the upper middle class of 350 million people worldwide, owns 5mBTC or more
* lower middle class consists of 1 billion people is characterized by ownership of 0.5mBTC or more
* the lower class of (3+ billion) owns less than 0.5mBTC including people who don't have any or have negative worth.

Even if you find it hard to believe the dollar part, the number of bitcoins existing is still constant, and will likely be distributed quite exactly according to the table above, when the initial distribution period is completed and bitcoins are used everywhere.

are you sure about those numbers?
cause the first 5 sum up just 4345000000mBTC

They are the lower bounds. Eg. "0.5mBTC or more" means the same as "0.5mBTC - 4.99999mBTC".

In totality, this model assumes 15 million coins. Some of the top 29,000 have vast fortunes such as 50,000mBTC, the early block reward/VIP tag.

I applaud you methodology, and your sentiment issued elsewhere when referring to the redistribution of wealth in Russia, redistributing to a similar hierarchy.

But I think the distribution may be slightly misguided to base it on the existing distribution, as the existing system transfers wealth from the last earners of money to the top of the primed to the first to spend the newly created money through inflation by design.

Bitcoin will fall into a more natural distribution, not artificially influenced by inflation, and I think the numbers will be more generous to the people at the bottom of the pyramid.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: rpietila on November 26, 2013, 02:34:44 PM

We are so far from mass adoption that it is not even funny.

That's very true. But I think you need to account for alt coins. LTC is at 2% of BTC now and who knows where it will be later. The more widespread BTC becomes there more widespread other alt coins become so it isn't really 21million coin cap. Someone who starts a popular alt coin and retains 10-20% might equate to 1% of BTC.

Actually LTC is at 8% of Bitcoin as there is a 4 time larger supply. I kinda think it's overpriced.

rpietila

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Activity: 1722

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Quote from: ?? on ??

are you sure about those numbers?
cause the first 5 sum up just 4,345,000,000mBTC

They are the lower bounds. Eg. "0.5mBTC or more" means the same as "0.5mBTC - 4.99999mBTC".

In totality, this model assumes 15 million coins. Some of the top 29,000 have vast fortunes such as 50,000mBTC, the early block reward/VIP tag.

wachtwoord

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I like your posts so much man. Claiming you only need 5 BTC to be in the top 29,000 people Grin

The wealthy will inherit the Earth! Grin

rpietila

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Activity: 1722

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We are so far from mass adoption that it is not even funny.

rpietila

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Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Let us assume that Bitcoin has completely taken over as a currency, and is now used worldwide. Because the emergence of Bitcoin has made commerce boom, the world GDP has grown such that bitcoins alone account for as much value as the physical and financial world did in 2012.

The world uses other methods for everyday payments. Bitcoins themselves are used for large transactions only and a measured in units of mBTC. The wealth is distributed in a similar way as in the article, but to quite different people.

In this order,
* the top 29,000 people would have 5,000mBTC or more, a huge fortune comparable to 100 million of today's dollars.
* the top 1 million people would have 500mBTC or more, corresponding to 10 million or more dollars
* 29 million people have at least 50mBTC, which puts them among the most affluent 0.6%, previously called 'millionaires'
* the upper middle class of 350 million people worldwide, owns 5mBTC or more
* lower middle class consists of 1 billion people is characterized by ownership of 0.5mBTC or more
* the lower class of (3+ billion) owns less than 0.5mBTC including people who don't have any or have negative worth.

Even if you find it hard to believe the dollar part, the number of bitcoins existing is still constant, and will likely be distributed quite exactly according to the table above, when the initial distribution period is completed and bitcoins are used everywhere.

rpietila

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I will try to derive a calculation concerning the "eventual distribution" of bitcoins, which is the dynamic equilibrium. Soon...

AnonyMint

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Quote from: rpietila on November 25, 2013, 03:40:45 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: AnonyMint on November 25, 2013, 03:08:02 AM

FX to/from dollar, i.e. trading.

Hardly generates any transactions in Bitcoin network..

Are you sure? Looks to me all localbitcoin.com trades are on the public ledger.

Ah sure, but that is not "trading". And they are not sub-1mBTC, which was the issue here.

The post I was responding to was to the source of the 20 million transactions on the public ledger and whether that constitutes evidence of a large number of Bitcoin owners and thus a lower concentration of ownership. I am asserting that it is probably mostly transactions of trading, coin mixing, and SatoshiDice. Not evidence of separate ownership, just recycling amongst the small number of Bitcoin owners, some where in the realm of 350,000 to million owners perhaps.

P.S. I read a thread today about a guy who started with 5 BTC and is down to 3 BTC because he was trying to time the dips. You know many are doing that since that huge crash early in Bitcoin's life. There are numerous threads about how to hedge Bitcoin, as owners are justifiably very anxious.

rpietila

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: AnonyMint on November 25, 2013, 03:08:02 AM

FX to/from dollar, i.e. trading.

Hardly generates any transactions in Bitcoin network..

Are you sure? Looks to me all localbitcoin.com trades are on the public ledger.

Ah sure, but that is not "trading". And they are not sub-1mBTC, which was the issue here.

calian

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Quote from: rpietila on November 24, 2013, 11:10:07 AM

The addresses above 0.001 threshold could almost directly be mapped to holders 1:1. But I know that holders use several addresses so that has to be accounted for.

What are the 10 million dust addresses anyway? Nobody buys with $0.10 Huh

Every losing Satoshi Dice bet used to pay out 0.00000001 to the betting address. Obviously it costs a lot more to spend these outputs than they're worth so most of them are stuck.

AnonyMint

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Quote from: rpietila on November 25, 2013, 01:36:34 AM

Quote from: AnonyMint on November 24, 2013, 08:17:28 PM

Quote from: niothor on November 24, 2013, 11:35:22 AM

20 mils transactions in the blockchain

Coin mixers perhaps trying to shield identity from the coming confiscations...

Do coin mixers create bogus transactions? I thought their way was to just keep a pool of coins and try to have minimum taint between addresses A (recipient) and B (sender).

You've still got to have transactions from all the set of input addresses to a new set of output addresses. And those who really want maximum anonymity would continually go through mixers to add more stages of obfuscation to the ownership trail on the public ledger.

The entire point is to add transactions to the public ledger that confuse the trail of ownership.

Btw, it appears to me that regular transactions are now broken. They weren't broken at $350.

Those 20 million transactions would also include SatoshiDice which is the majority and also FX to/from dollar, i.e. trading.

rpietila

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Quote from: AnonyMint on November 24, 2013, 08:17:28 PM

Quote from: niothor on November 24, 2013, 11:35:22 AM

20 mils transactions in the blockchain

Coin mixers perhaps trying to shield identity from the coming confiscations...

Do coin mixers create bogus transactions? I thought their way was to just keep a pool of coins and try to have minimum taint between addresses A (recipient) and B (sender).

AnonyMint

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Quote from: niothor on November 24, 2013, 11:35:22 AM

Quote from: rpietila on November 24, 2013, 11:26:30 AM

Quote from: Rampion on November 24, 2013, 11:21:23 AM

Quote from: rpietila on November 24, 2013, 10:58:10 AM

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on November 24, 2013, 10:48:32 AM

It looks from this like several million will be the correct figure.

I heard that only about 3 million bitcoin addresses are used. I would say that the number of addresses > number of users.

Myself, I have used dozens of addresses, and don't consider to be a heavy user of addresses.

I use at least 100 addresses per year, and i don't consider myself a heavy user. Just imagine how many addresses do Bitcoin businesses use.

Another thing that speaks against the millions-of-users hypothesis is bitcoin price. The market cap is $10 billion. Most of the users have bought in before this month. Even if their average investment is only $1000, this means that number of users is only 2 million. But many have bought last year or so, making their stash worth much more than $1000, even after heavy selling.

With 20 mils transactions in the blockchain I find it hard to believe.

Coin mixers perhaps trying to shield identity from the coming confiscations...

Topic: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner - page 27. (Read 153446 times)