Topic: Do you believe you can win on sports betting by analyzing a betting lines only? - page 4. (Read 582 times)
December 09, 2023, 06:22:10 PM
In theory, most games that involve two entities duking it out for a win, should at least yield you a 50/50 probability of winning every game, which means that no matter how you analyze the hell out of your games, you literally wouldn't be able to do anything if the games are laid out with that kind of parity. Which might be what you're experiencing, as well as millions of sports gambler in here like me. In any case, this doesn't mean you should stop analyzing your games and altogether just hope and pray that you're on the right 50/50 side this time, half the fun of playing on sportsbets is chipping in your own insights on stuff, keep that even if it's just for entertainment's sake. Don't worry much about if it would win you the game or not.
December 09, 2023, 05:52:37 PM
When I say 'line,' I am referring to the spreads or handicap of a certain team in the game. Through my years of experience, I have noticed that putting effort into analyzing the team's statistics and other factors, such as news and rumors, does not significantly affect my chances of winning.
I got this belief now that bookmakers are already knowledgeable about these aspects, and they take them into consideration when establishing a betting line for a specific game.
How about you? Do you share the same perspective or not?
I got this belief now that bookmakers are already knowledgeable about these aspects, and they take them into consideration when establishing a betting line for a specific game.
How about you? Do you share the same perspective or not?
101%, usually I analysis the game after checking the odds not before.
The odds sometimes telling us what we dont know about the match. Sometimes I feel the odds maker already knew the results even before the match begins.
December 09, 2023, 05:23:30 PM
How about you? Do you share the same perspective or not?
The odds says it all but I still prefer to analyze on my own and stay focus on my strategy and that includes analyzing the team and the players too though sometimes if I’m too busy and want to place a bet, I just rely on the odds and most of the time I won. Betting can still be risky, don’t ever forget to analyze and focus on your strategy, we know betting can be more rewarding if you bet correctly. 
December 09, 2023, 01:04:53 PM
In my opinion, bookmakers analyze them based on the data that is available to them and place odds or market that they think is fair for both sides (customers and bookmaker) but customers must do their own analysis, There are many cases in which bookmakers, when Asian, African and American teams play, place high odds on both teams that will play because they think it will be a balanced game, but for people from those countries who know those teams very well, they know well, they are the favorite teams and weak teams and the strong and weak points of those teams and people bet and win
I see sports betting as a fight between the bookmaker and the bettor, in this fight the one who has the most information about the game wins, that's why when I place a bet I don't see the odds value or who will be the favorite, first analyze the performance of the two teams and I choose which one I want to bet on because I believe they will win, then I go to the betting site to see what the odds value is for the team I want to bet on and if I see very low odds I give up on the bet, this is to prevent me from taking decisions based on what the bookmaker also decided
I see sports betting as a fight between the bookmaker and the bettor, in this fight the one who has the most information about the game wins, that's why when I place a bet I don't see the odds value or who will be the favorite, first analyze the performance of the two teams and I choose which one I want to bet on because I believe they will win, then I go to the betting site to see what the odds value is for the team I want to bet on and if I see very low odds I give up on the bet, this is to prevent me from taking decisions based on what the bookmaker also decided
December 09, 2023, 12:37:27 PM
It depends on whether it is a collective or individual game, it is not the same that a situation affects a player on a football team (e.g.) as it does a tennis player.
Hence also that situation can be illness, divorce, death of a family member and a great etcetera.(1)
And, in the other side there are those types of situations are those related to the sport; victories, statistics, etc.
The second mentioned may be more linked to that aspect of probability which is still a formula or algorithm.
But the one referred to (1) can be far from that probability environment and then influence our decision.
It is relative, in any case point (1) is sometimes insider information that makes money. That's why sports opinion programs exist, they are there minute by minute with the news.
Hence also that situation can be illness, divorce, death of a family member and a great etcetera.(1)
And, in the other side there are those types of situations are those related to the sport; victories, statistics, etc.
The second mentioned may be more linked to that aspect of probability which is still a formula or algorithm.
But the one referred to (1) can be far from that probability environment and then influence our decision.
It is relative, in any case point (1) is sometimes insider information that makes money. That's why sports opinion programs exist, they are there minute by minute with the news.
December 09, 2023, 12:01:03 PM
Not sure about that, but we also know that sports betting is not easy to just predict, because I also often experience losses even though I am sure I will win but it all still comes back to luck, this is not just how the bookie knows about these aspects because indeed they also want money and get their users' money, everyone knows about that, it's just that we as users still need analysis.
News and rumors or other things definitely have an influence because as people know, everything comes back to luck, everyone not only fully uses analysis and reads information about sports but is also lucky to win, always remember that professional bettors also experience losses, even though he is experienced in gambling in this sports betting. Just be confident and confident that we can win by analyzing it.
News and rumors or other things definitely have an influence because as people know, everything comes back to luck, everyone not only fully uses analysis and reads information about sports but is also lucky to win, always remember that professional bettors also experience losses, even though he is experienced in gambling in this sports betting. Just be confident and confident that we can win by analyzing it.
The sports bet or casino games,both had win or loss in the gambling site.The difference in sports bet was the gamblers was used to bet on the odds of the other gamblers in sports bet.But the casino was purely based on the betting made by the individual gamblers.So the gamblers loss or win in the casino was based on the prediction made by the gambler.If the gamblers had their luck, the possibility of winning would be more likely happen in both sports betting and casino.The sports betting was based on the previous day news and rumours about the specific player.This leads to gambler will bet on news in the sports betting.
December 09, 2023, 11:53:51 AM
When I say 'line,' I am referring to the spreads or handicap of a certain team in the game. Through my years of experience, I have noticed that putting effort into analyzing the team's statistics and other factors, such as news and rumors, does not significantly affect my chances of winning.
I got this belief now that bookmakers are already knowledgeable about these aspects, and they take them into consideration when establishing a betting line for a specific game.
How about you? Do you share the same perspective or not?
By my understanding and just using just common sense, any profitable angle i come up with, i can pretty much be sure that someone else has tried, or is trying it as well, and bookmarkers are way ahead of us, as they must think every possible exploit and system to try to beat them. Because that's coming from their living hood if someone cracks the code of "infinity money making machine" via gambling.I got this belief now that bookmakers are already knowledgeable about these aspects, and they take them into consideration when establishing a betting line for a specific game.
How about you? Do you share the same perspective or not?
You might get a slightly better edge with some specific info, you are familiar with, and it most likely affect your changes of winning, but those are most likely counted into the odds already.
December 09, 2023, 09:41:07 AM
No matter how perfect the analysis is, it does not guarantee that I will win my bet. The analysis I do can only increase the likelihood that I will win and increase my confidence in the bets I make. In doing sports betting, I believe that in addition to this bet relying on ability. but the luck factor also greatly influences it.
And when talking about the bookie, I believe that the bookie has predicted everything, they have paid attention and predicted what the final result will be. On the other hand, the bookie already has a system for how he can continue to benefit from his bettors. The bookie will take advantage of the difference in costs, because if we look further, each sports bet must have different odds or payouts.
Although skills are needed in sports betting, I do not guarantee the victory that will be obtained, analyzing does not mean that it will get an easy victory either. even though they can predict with certainty but in my opinion it will not be as perfect as their predictions. where there is still luck that has a role, because sports betting is also inseparable from luck. so no matter how good the analyzing skills a person has but it will end up with luck in the end.And when talking about the bookie, I believe that the bookie has predicted everything, they have paid attention and predicted what the final result will be. On the other hand, the bookie already has a system for how he can continue to benefit from his bettors. The bookie will take advantage of the difference in costs, because if we look further, each sports bet must have different odds or payouts.
Of course the bookie who has the role of the host will try everything to get a profitable victory for them.
December 09, 2023, 09:12:52 AM
No matter how perfect the analysis is, it does not guarantee that I will win my bet. The analysis I do can only increase the likelihood that I will win and increase my confidence in the bets I make. In doing sports betting, I believe that in addition to this bet relying on ability. but the luck factor also greatly influences it.
And when talking about the bookie, I believe that the bookie has predicted everything, they have paid attention and predicted what the final result will be. On the other hand, the bookie already has a system for how he can continue to benefit from his bettors. The bookie will take advantage of the difference in costs, because if we look further, each sports bet must have different odds or payouts.
you're right but having your analysis will determine and give you a chance or possibility to win. When it comes to sport betting, Historical data is at best a guide if you have no idea about anything but you will never get reliable data for your bets. In that way, you can predict who will win base on both teams historical data.And when talking about the bookie, I believe that the bookie has predicted everything, they have paid attention and predicted what the final result will be. On the other hand, the bookie already has a system for how he can continue to benefit from his bettors. The bookie will take advantage of the difference in costs, because if we look further, each sports bet must have different odds or payouts.
We can win in sports betting, but we have to be able to improve our analytical skills. And we can only continue to analyze every match that will take place and hope we win in sports betting.
December 09, 2023, 09:12:14 AM
...
How about you? Do you share the same perspective or not?
How about you? Do you share the same perspective or not?
Well, the reality is that you will never know what could happen if you don't decide to take a risk and try it your way. Not everything works for everyone, and what works for some people for others might not work...
So don't pay a lot of attention to what we have to say about this, whether it will work or not is up to you to discover. I can only wish you luck and my advice is to try it with some amount you can afford to lose, don't get in with everything you have, only that is important.
December 09, 2023, 08:33:13 AM
Don't variables always get neglected or undervalued? Human behavior, especially in sports, is unpredictable. Bookies may consider team performance data and current events, but do they consider morale, player psychology, and situational stress? Though unlikely, these missed factors may marginally change the probabilities. Does sports betting become a game of chance if bookies are near-perfect analysts? No, I disagree. Why? Because betting is about finding value in the lines, not winning or losing. The smart bettor looks for those few times when the lines don't match the game. They play against the bookmaker and market opinion. Could this be a more sophisticated sports betting strategy that acknowledges bookmakers' skill while allowing for bettor insight?
December 09, 2023, 07:37:44 AM
They are getting better and better. All of my greedy bets in sports cannot hit the right amount in the spreads. -4.5 and then the team I pick will win by just 4 points. Over 212.5 and then the total score is just 207-211. Sure, they are getting better at it and it's now harder to predict the game results. If you pick lesser spreads it will mean lesser profits and I don't like when it's just 1.40 below. 1.50 and above is what I prefer the most, going lower than that, I'd rather not bet for the game.
We spend time and effort analyzing the games and yet it's difficult to win it. I think they are getting wiser and worse they are the first to receive recent news about players' absence and other delicate news that can change the game widely. Some sports bettors prefer betting before the game but what if you are in a different timeline? That's another problem for those who want to bet early because they are asleep once the game starts.
We spend time and effort analyzing the games and yet it's difficult to win it. I think they are getting wiser and worse they are the first to receive recent news about players' absence and other delicate news that can change the game widely. Some sports bettors prefer betting before the game but what if you are in a different timeline? That's another problem for those who want to bet early because they are asleep once the game starts.
December 09, 2023, 07:32:37 AM
Analysis would be a huge help determining a winning bet, however nothing is guaranteed as well all know. However, it would be a huge help to determine a good bet. Analysis could simply be a huge help which team would be more advantageous over the other in particular with roster, league standing, and stats of players. Anything could happen within or during a game but a good analysis could be a huge lead to which team is more likely to win. Odds would as well help you decide which player or team is most likely to be victorious and i
this is already a part of analysis.
this is already a part of analysis.
December 09, 2023, 07:10:45 AM
If you analyze a match, all you will notice is that the old of the team you think that would win the match will be very low to the odd of the club that you think will not lose. The odd alone can be discouraging. It is good to analyze a match to know if you should select it or. But we should also consider the odd. It is good to know that a club that have most chance to win a match can still disappoint you by losing or drawing the match.
odds can be easily to understand, when a team is a favorite, like odds below 1.90, they'll likely win the game, at least that's the stand point of the bookmakers who created the odds. However, the real challenge there is on the spreads, as you never know if the favorites would be able to cover the spread or not, they can win but they may fail to cover, that will result to a losing bet.
If you are gambling and you are particularly focus on the moneyline odds, I don't think this strategy would give you a winning record in the long run.
December 09, 2023, 07:03:18 AM
If you analyze a match, all you will notice is that the old of the team you think that would win the match will be very low to the odd of the club that you think will not lose. The odd alone can be discouraging. It is good to analyze a match to know if you should select it or. But we should also consider the odd. It is good to know that a club that have most chance to win a match can still disappoint you by losing or drawing the match.
December 09, 2023, 06:45:55 AM
Some people also think that the bookie's chances of winning are much greater than the bettor's, well I don't think so either.
I think it's a wrong perception to think that way, bookies aren't the house like a casino where they had games and you play against the house. Bookies more like a facilitator of our bets and bookmakers job are the making lines and odds that would attract even actions, but adjustments are always their as balancing is always the main goal.
Why balance the action? This is to ensure that bookies accept as maybe bets as they can so they can increase the juice they'll ba making.
For example, team A had +2.5 vs team B -2.5, both have odds of 1.90, so regardless on what team will win, bookies will always pocket 10% of the total bets from the winning bets.
Also this is not like the bookies will win or lose based on the luck. They have the odds in place and in most cases, no matter which team wins or loses the bookies are in profit. Since bookies give less odds to the favourite team, so even if bookies have to give money to the gamblers, it is not that much because the odds are low.
Although it requires a little bit of math to understand, but being a bookie is a profitable business as compared to being a gambler. but not everyone can become a bookie because it needs a lot of initial capital which the ordinary gamblers do not possess.
They do the match, the bookmakers actually and the odds they would set will always benefit the bookies. Are you familiar with line movement? Things like that usually happen when one side have heavy action and that bookmakers will have to adjust in order to attract bets on the other side. Bookmakers does provide pregame and live betting odds, so the bookies job are just their to operate, accept bets and pays those winning bets.
December 09, 2023, 06:01:20 AM
No matter how perfect the analysis is, it does not guarantee that I will win my bet. The analysis I do can only increase the likelihood that I will win and increase my confidence in the bets I make. In doing sports betting, I believe that in addition to this bet relying on ability. but the luck factor also greatly influences it.
But how do you evaluate that luck factor to help you win in sports betting?When we talk about analysis here, we follow those statistics available, and other factors we can consider to increae our chances, but damn, "luck thing", that's something we can't control, so if we really are serious with sports betting, don't mentioned luck to be considerd as a factor to influence the outcome of our journey.
And when talking about the bookie, I believe that the bookie has predicted everything, they have paid attention and predicted what the final result will be. On the other hand, the bookie already has a system for how he can continue to benefit from his bettors. The bookie will take advantage of the difference in costs, because if we look further, each sports bet must have different odds or payouts.
Just like us, they also are predicting, and that's where the odds are very created. This bookies doesn't have their own pick, it's the line that we are betting on, so we can't say book beat us or the other way around.
December 09, 2023, 05:45:43 AM
When I say 'line,' I am referring to the spreads or handicap of a certain team in the game. Through my years of experience, I have noticed that putting effort into analyzing the team's statistics and other factors, such as news and rumors, does not significantly affect my chances of winning.
I got this belief now that bookmakers are already knowledgeable about these aspects, and they take them into consideration when establishing a betting line for a specific game.
How about you? Do you share the same perspective or not?
I got this belief now that bookmakers are already knowledgeable about these aspects, and they take them into consideration when establishing a betting line for a specific game.
How about you? Do you share the same perspective or not?
The odds are actually the ones you'll be analyzing why the bookies set a specific handicap. These handicaps may look weird sometimes without you knowing that there might some changes in the rotation to a specific team, say for example in the NBA.
Bookies have more eyes and brain that has been analyzing games in daily basis, so it is expected that they are far more ready and knowledgeable than we are. No matter how familiar we are with a certain sport we all still rely on our luck at the end of the game.
December 09, 2023, 05:24:04 AM
No matter how perfect the analysis is, it does not guarantee that I will win my bet. The analysis I do can only increase the likelihood that I will win and increase my confidence in the bets I make. In doing sports betting, I believe that in addition to this bet relying on ability. but the luck factor also greatly influences it.
And when talking about the bookie, I believe that the bookie has predicted everything, they have paid attention and predicted what the final result will be. On the other hand, the bookie already has a system for how he can continue to benefit from his bettors. The bookie will take advantage of the difference in costs, because if we look further, each sports bet must have different odds or payouts.
And when talking about the bookie, I believe that the bookie has predicted everything, they have paid attention and predicted what the final result will be. On the other hand, the bookie already has a system for how he can continue to benefit from his bettors. The bookie will take advantage of the difference in costs, because if we look further, each sports bet must have different odds or payouts.
you're right but having your analysis will determine and give you a chance or possibility to win. When it comes to sport betting, Historical data is at best a guide if you have no idea about anything but you will never get reliable data for your bets. In that way, you can predict who will win base on both teams historical data.
December 09, 2023, 04:56:49 AM
When I say 'line,' I am referring to the spreads or handicap of a certain team in the game. Through my years of experience, I have noticed that putting effort into analyzing the team's statistics and other factors, such as news and rumors, does not significantly affect my chances of winning.
I got this belief now that bookmakers are already knowledgeable about these aspects, and they take them into consideration when establishing a betting line for a specific game.
How about you? Do you share the same perspective or not?
Puttin effort into analyzing the teams statistics helps hugely. Years ago I had a thread on Bitcointalk where I was posting football (soccer) predictions - https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/free-soccer-predictions-from-shield132-worlds-most-popular-4-league-1597716I got this belief now that bookmakers are already knowledgeable about these aspects, and they take them into consideration when establishing a betting line for a specific game.
How about you? Do you share the same perspective or not?
In order to do a successful bet, you have to know a lot about each team. For example if there is a match between Barcelona and Real Madrid, you have to know whether the game is home or away, who plays, who is injured, which player has a good/bad season, how the goalscoring, how they performed in their last matches, how many goals they scored. You also have to consider what has happened in the past when these two teams were playing against each other. I was always checking these statistics. That was time-consuming but that was hugely helping me, the record of my bets proves that. You can see in my thread how successful my predictions were.
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