Topic: Do you really believe that Bitcoin will hit 1,000,000 - page 11. (Read 17317 times)

Gold is tangible asset and central banks around the world use it to settle payment.

Bitcoin has not reached this stage nor will it likely to be payment settlement between countries.

in  Bretton Woods system  35dollar=1  ounce of gold
today   1320.90dollar=1  ounce of gold
government‘s cash printer never stop
the bitcion hit any price is possible 
but  i dont think is so quick  like 2013

Most millionaires don't keep all of their assets in fiat though. Most will have it spread between a house, car, stocks, other investments, and only a small amount will be kept as actual dollars in a bank.

bitcoin disciplines central banks/gov economic policy, because now you can store your value at time (t) in bitcoin.

eg, govt tax trillions each year and make stupid deleterious decisions that loose a good portion of that, and in the process devalue my money after tax. However my money after tax's value can now be stored in BTC and that cannot be inflated by Gov action anymore.

So as a rational actor where do I put my value?

This further occurs as BTC allows jurisdictional arbitrage on a scale undreamed of before. Accordngly bad BTC "regulation" will be disciplined by massive capital outflow.

Fixed.

Why don't you look at it this way.

Once all the BTC is mined there will be 21,000,000 BTC in circulation.

If one BTC is worth $1 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $21 million

If one BTC is worth $100 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $2.1 Billion

If one BTC is worth $1,000 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $210 Billion

If one BTC is worth $100,000 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $21 trillion

If one BTC is worth $1,000,000 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $210 Trillion.

As of 2012 the GDP of the US was ~15 trillion dollars and the GDP of the world was ~46 Trillion

Does it still seem plausible for bitcoin to reach $1,000,000?

Hi all,

I have recently decided to invest in Bitcoins which was based upon a lot of research to get my head around the concept etc.

This was my conclusion. (very over simplified )

Its finite in size and thus deflationary (21m coins by 2040)

The method behind how they are created (mined), the security etc looks very strong and stable.

The currency is 'Owned & Controlled' for want of a better word by the whole community as opposed by a few i.e. The Fed.

The existing banking system is very complex, has taken years to build and is very expensive to maintain which means there are a lot of people who get a slice of the action. For example. A few years back I wanted to do some work in Poland from UK. The overall cost was circa £200,000 and included supplying equipment. The wall had just fallen and this transaction was risky which meant we jumped through a lot of hoops including guaranteed methods of payment. Cryptocurrency resolves that thus fees are negligible.

What does this mean is: Its simple.. its cheaper, quicker, faster, easier than traditional methods.

Ok so i then looked at global digital trade. All it takes is for main players to adopt the currency (ebay etc) and then it gains credibility amongst the masses.

It also means that a humble farmer in the outbacks of Africa or South America, with no normal banking network, could actually trade. All he needs is a wallet and a phone and a network connection.

My simple conclusion was.. the emerging markets will love it and adopt it whilst the Old Guard (The Fed, Bank of England, EEC ) will scream about a lack of regulation when what they really mean is they cant control it. Just a reminder, the latest global recession was all down to Bankers having control and manipulating for their own benefit!

So, if I have got this right then adoption will secure the currency whilst rate of adoption will affect inflation from the commodity perspective.

So this is the maths I came up with assuming you take all people from the globe as opposed to those only holding US $.

Current Cap circa $8 billion
Current Bitcoins Mined circa 12.5M
Max Bitcoins to be mined 21M by circa 2040

I then decided that 15M would be in circulation by 2018 which was how far i wanted to look forward regarding growth potential

After doing a lot of educated guessing i decided that a realistic Cap, if all goes well, would be $800 billion

This would value the bitcoin at $53,333.

So, in conclusion, if the bitcoin, in 2040 hit 1M then the market cap would be 21 Trillion. This also assumes that it is the only real cryptocurrency in existence and the others, lite, Doge etc do not have any real market Cap

If it does get anywhere near 1M then it would also mean that the FIAT based banking industry will have shrunk enormously as it would no longer be generating the high (relatively) transaction fees it needs in order to survive...

So the real question is "Will the powerful few controlling the financial sectors really allow this to happen or will they just work out how to end up owning the cryptocurrencies because they are here to stay.


My predicition is that 100,000 is very optimistic but achievable in the next 10 years. 50,000 could come along within 3/4 years though if it all comes together

P.S  since I decided to invest i have just read that the Winklevoss twins predict $800B cap market to be realistic and Draper bought the Silk road auctioned bitcoins to underwrite cryptocurrency in the 3rd world.

No stopping progress!!!

Just because it seems "ridiculous" does not mean it isn't possible.    Many people thought $1000 a coin was a ridiculous price and it would never get there.

I think 50 to 100k is possible in the far away future if a lot of things come together
1m is just a ridiculous number, far too abstract almost

Why? It's divisible. If you're only using .00001s or .0000001s, BTC is still useful -- I imagine at that point, transaction fees will be much lower. I don't see why BTC can't be accessible still.

sure, when it will be something only old and rich collectors will be looking for

This is true to some extent, but for bitcoin to reach 7 figures, it would have to be pretty well entrenched in society/commerce. I think there is a good chance we get there, but it's hard to say when the pendulum will swing back, and when we'll have topped out for good.

I agree completely.  In fact, I'd say GDP isn't even the best comparison.  It's probably more like global money supply M2.  I believe that's about 68 trillion dollars.  So by my back-of-the-napkin calculation, we're probably looking at around $32,000 for every 1% of money supply BTC represents. Frankly, it doesn't seem likely that BTC would get anywhere NEAR 1% of global money supply with all the entrenched interests dependent on fiat.  I don't even see how it could get to 1% of USD money supply, or $5300, in terms of real value.

Of course, price doesn't always reflect value.  And as we keep juicing the USD money supply, this is subject to change.  I'd suspect that it's possible if not probable that BTC could eventually cross over $5300 or even $32,000, but without massive, massive adoption and hyperinflation, it's hard to see how it could stay there.  Eventually price and value probably converge. 

Technology innovation also happen fast. If bitcoin do hit 1,000,000, it may not stay there for long as incentive is strong for someone to come up with something better.

Rising population, USD steadily down forever, and fixed number of Bitcoins in mind means $1,000,000 is an irrelevant figure, because in 100 years that could be nothing.

So yes, eventually, even if it takes 3,000 years, once 1,000,000 is worthless I can see no reason how it can't happen.

If I were forced to guess when it happens, I'd say around 2020 is the earliest it can happen.

There's about 14 million millionaires in the world, as i mentioned earlier

there's only 21 million bitcoins around.

obviously there will never be even 21 million persons who hold a whole bitcoin

therefore we can assume if bitcoin becomes popular, and because it's so limited, that there will never be many people that own a whole bitcoin. Probably like 100.000 or even less persons will own a full bitcoin.

So, in that sense, owners of a full bitcoin will be several times more wealthy than current day millionaires.

With that logic, a bitcoin could even be worth many times more than a million, maybe even 100 million. It might sound extremely weird but it could happen.

Short of government intervention, security flaw, or out of control centralized mining, I believe it will.

For bitcoin to NOT reach $1m, it would have to fail, AND the USD would have to not die in hyperinflation... neither are likely to occur IMO.

Then $1,000,000 is guaranteed!

During Wiemar hyperinflation, gold price in term of the currency went off the roof.

The value of bitcoin really depend on the  policy maker of US. If congress do something stupid, of course it will btc will go to 1,000,000.