Topic: Do you think the rally is over now... or very soon? - page 11. (Read 16010 times)

I think the cup and handle will be true here. There will be pressure at $30 and again at the old high. I feel like we will "reach up" to break the old high by a tiny amount, mainly from the excitement of being able to achieve it, before falling back to the $25 range after a sell off, $20 at worst but then things will settle and we will climb back up and be much stronger in breaking the $30/$32 barriers. Once we clear $32 i really think that it will become the new bottom and a key indicator as to how things are going. I wouldn't be surprised to see us settle in the $35-$40 range within a couple of months with a strong barrier at $32 and $30

Saget is one of my favorite comedians -- I met him twice!  Do you have a link / source for this rumor?

Anyone for Tea?

KTE but he has a solid understanding of fundamentals don't you know   Quoting from another thread:

You're being just as irrational. Why not 99%? 100%? 97%? You guys are just throwing in numbers out of your head with relation to any data. If you're saying that the last crash was the absolute maximum, you should have a reason why.

You guys should just stick to saying that a crash is possible and not try to be any more exact since you can't, credibly.

The last time "this happened" was the ramp up before the $15 spike in Sept/Oct (?) 2012 ... starting at Jul'12. Hence, what you tell us is that it will top out, retrace roughly 25%, and build an upper triangle and breakout again. From that, I can't follow your "sell now" logic.

Exactly. In my opinion the current situation is at most a "small bubble", meaning that there can be a correction, but it's unlikely to be a deep one. To experience a "massive bubble" we would need to see the all time high broken and then panic buys from there. That is the point when it's smart to become skeptical.

Assuming that the two boom patterns should be similar (i.e. the whole thing be a fractal) - then the second is still very far from the top, it still might grow maybe 10 times. 

Fair enough.

You made your case, and I think its foolish. Simple as that.
It took us 2 months to climb from ~10 to ~30 it could easily drop back to ~10 in a moment.. or it might continue upward.

Any currency can crash drastically and the trading pool isn't so deep as to protect bitcoin from this fact.

I think I was fairly explicit about the differences between 2011 and 2013 which lead me to the conclusion that a crash wouldn't be nearly as bad.

"up to 50%" I think you are being irrational here. I can expect a crash of up to 95%.
We went from $31 to $2 before, another crash like that could happen again, it could be even more drastic.. Will it? I don't know, but pretending that 50% is the floor is foolish.

I'm a long-term bull. I started buying in 2011 and have continued to buy throughout, including this month.

I acknowledge the possibility of a crash/correction of up to 50% when this rally stops. But I'm still buying.

What bears must acknowledge is that Bitcoin 2013 is not Bitcoin 2011. Implying that the current spike is going to lead to a similar 90%+ lasting crash simply due to chart patterns represents some pretty surface level thinking.

Bitcoin has made great strides in the last year and a half, including:

1) More security (hashrate), and about to get 10x+ more secure due to ASIC deployment.
2) Far more professionalism in the ecosystem in general, and in 3rd party services in particular.
3) Development and understanding of best-practices with respect to how to handle bitcoin, in terms of online wallets, offline wallets, cold storage, etc.
4) Far more merchant adoption (just ask BitPay).
5) Traditional venture capital is now dipping their feet in the water.
6) More professionals and technologists from other industries are now focusing on bitcoin. Observe the bitcoin2013 speaker/panalist list.
7) Services such as SatoshiDice show a use-case that isn't possible without bitcoin, and gambling looks set to become bitcoin's first high-volume general use-case.
8.) Bitcoin acceptance announcements from top sites including Wordpress.com, Reddit.com, and Mega
9) More startups and serious entrepreneurs investing their time, energy, and creativity into bitcoin.
10) Huge improvement in the quality of the mainstream media attention given to bitcoin.
11) Another 18 months of successfully processing transactions without any fundamental protocol failure.


Don't forget that the fall from $32 in 2011 was triggered by a hack at Gox, which was followed by a nasty series of hacks and scams that was able to happen due to widespread ignorance and naivety in the bitcoin ecosystem in general. Bitcoin has grown up to a large degree since then, and I posit that we're over the era of easy hacks and scams that killed confidence for a year. During that time, the core ecosystem was quietly gaining the strength and professionalism that's finally being acknowledged today.

That was then.  This is now.


The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent [betting against it].


One thing is certain -- without there being plenty of convenient and secure methods to "go short" bitcoin, the longer the exchange rate goes up at this pace the sharper the selloff when one comes.   The total valuation (which some refer to using the misnomer "market cap") of $300+ million exceeds by a wide margin the amount actually needed to support the level of BTC transactions that are seen on the blockchain today.  

And looking at the exchange trading volume, the current levels are triple what they were in 4Q 2012.  If that isn't sustained, there could easily be a sharp pullback.

 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv

Or this is the new normal and there's more upside to come.  Who knows?

• Please post any chart from ANY financial market in modern or ancient history that shows a massive, dramatic upward spike without a sharp correction.

Good luck finding one.

Sold my BTC Thanks for the heads-up. 

It doesn't matter, your entire argument is "look what happened last time" which is totally ridiculous.

Don't base you trading strategy on what you think will happen. You will be wrong more often than not.

my chart analysis spreadsheet tells me that at current hashrate, and news that TV star Bob Saget is soon investing in a large amount of coins; BTC is undervalued by at least $15.