Topic: Do you think the rally is over now... or very soon? - page 7. (Read 16010 times)

I predict a crash all the way to 35 by end-of-week.

For the shorter-term traders out there (long-term can ignore): Instead of trying to "call the top," or deluding yourself with fantasies about how this rally will continue unbroken to 40, 50, 100, or whatever, instead make a plan for how you will try to stay with the trend. The way to do this is to use stops and keep raising them. For example, since January 8th, every dip to the 20 day exponential moving average (EMA) has been bought. So one way to stay with the rally would be to set your stop .2 - .5 BTC below the 20 EMA, and keep raising it as the 20 EMA goes up. Since 2/14, the uptrend has accelerated, and every dip to the 10 EMA has been bought, so if you want to be more aggressive about protecting your profit, you might set your stop a little below the 10 EMA, and again keep raising it as the 10 EMA goes up. Sure, there's always the chance that you might get stopped out right at the bottom of a dip that breaks the pattern, but this is better than selling way too early (and watching price rip much higher without you), or being caught like a deer in the headlights when a major pullback comes (and thus holding too long due to your conviction that the rally must continue). You can always get back in if you get caught in a little head-fake and the uptrend resumes (and so long as you are willing to use stops, there shouldn't be anything scary about hopping right back on board). We've been hugging the 10 day EMA fairly tight during this rally, and one scenario that might indicate we are near a top would be a steep ramp that gets price extended way above the 10 day EMA - if that happens, we are likely due for at least a dip back to the 10 EMA, or much lower. This is pretty standard trading technique, and I'm sure something like this has been pointed out somewhere on the forum before, but if so, it is drowned in the clamor of unfounded opinions. Personally, I'm in for the long-haul, so I'm not concerned with shorter-term trends, but if I was, something like the above is how I would try to gauge and ride the current trend, with no opinion about where the top will be, or how long the trend will last. Bald opinion is a terrible guide for trading, so ignore all opinion (yours and others), and instead measure the trend and ride it until it breaks.  

It adds to that hilarity when you heard them saying" I don't want people to lose their money so that's why I'm here", in all seriousness.

I wouldn't really call this a rally, this was a spike... some number of folks dumping a huge amount of cash in to bitcoins.

But it is exciting! just this morning I was saying we were unlikely to hit 32 today unless some one dumped a massive amount of cash, and look at that. O.O

No, the first rally totally ended and then we had a relatively calm period (didn't you see the post "Why is the price so stable lately?"?) So clearly the recent rise must be a new rally.

I did my best to resist talking to him, but I am a fan of your work.

It's one thing to be wrong, but to be self righteous and indignant about people not listening to your predictions of doom and failure is the height of hilarity.

The rally ended at 33.2 followed by a huge crash to $33.

Run for the exits, the end is near.

OMG, Edward 50.  i'd forgotten about that idiot.  did i have plenty of flame wars with him.

Yep, time to go hang out with Nagle and Edward50 - have fun!

If I were Bit_happy, I wouldn't post anything else for a couple of years...

One week later...

$33.20 / BTC

Amen to that.

I love it when people tell me they're "Sorry to inform me."

It is very easy ... if there is a max SELL SELL SELL (already sold ? ... wait ... some are buying at $32 and soon will sell at $0,001  (joke) )  :-)

The first rally was Ted, this one is Todd. They are easily confused!  

No guys wait, he was right. The rally ended and this is just a totally different rally that started at the exact moment the first one ended.

It's coming.. the crash is coming... oh wait..

wait

+1 thank you to let me know

OMG. It crashed in the wrong direction.