Topic: Documenting my Horse Racing Bets - Started: 26-DEC-2018 - page 2. (Read 1025 times)

Bet #125:

Bet #124:



I am limited with Orbit, have to place a €6 lay bet followed by a €6 lay bet, because of "high exposure", the error message says to contact the agent, which I believe it's very normal, and happened to many others, so I just have to wait for BetInAsia to fix this, they should open their office in about 10 minutes, they work 9am-9pm CET every day.

Bet #123:

Bet #122:

Bet #121:

Bet #120:

Bet #119:

Bet #117:



Bet #118:

I think I came across this thread previously, and thanks for sharing it - this guy is talking about laying 12-20 ... this is not worth it by all means whatsoever, unless if you pick them from races with 20 horses in them (which is quite rare) ... usually these odds come in a 7-8 horse race, this has no value in the long term because as I explained in my previous post - horses "in the middle" are usually the winners ... it's not a good strategy.

I still think Laying The Underdog is not a bad thing but it must be done carefully as well ... you would barely come across articles or forum threads about laying the underdog, trust me on this, I've researched the Internet and couldn't find many people talking about it.

Bet #116:



I couldn't place €18 in one shot because of an error message of "High Exposure", I will wait for BetInAsia to sort this out as well as to hopefully process a withdrawal.

Not looking at any other races anymore for today and will be busy doing other things tonight.

Happy 2019 for everyone!

I think it was on OLBG betting forum where I used to lurk in the past, there was a thread or two but it was long time ago when I got into Betfair (year 2014), I'll try to find these old threads (or perhaps it was on SBRforum) if I find them I'll post them here


edit: right now I cannot seem to find the thread I was thinking about, but this is good read https://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=55973
basically, in my opinion, you are doing a good job if you manage to lay a horse at odds of X, and at the start of the race, the odds (Y) of this horse are higher (so X < Y). That's how it is possible to win in the long term in my opinion.  

Any chance to list 2 or 3 threads of this kind please?

There are no guarantees when it comes to gambling, that's why the house wins because the house knows that the only guaranteed outcome from randomness is to take a fee from it, any other option carries a risk with it.

Bookmakers do take risk when a horse or a dog with high odds wins the race, in the media you see they say "the bookmakers cheer" but in fact they only cheer when the low odds unpredictable horse/dog wins, which is why extreme bets (favorite or worst underdogs) are not the ones the bookies want to win, because then they would have to pay more (i.e. there would be more customers noticing the lowest and highest possible odds, the ones in the middle are usually the winners because most people don't bet on them - hence the term "Lay The Favorite" was created but not apply it to "Lay The Underdog" as well?)

There is a race in Cannington near Perth in 15 minutes or so - the underdog there looks like a good choice, but then you have to add the market movement and see how BetFair is reacting to it - with these tools it might be easier to make the "right" choice - but I am absolutely on a quitting mode now, BetInAsia told me they don't work until tomorrow, so I have to wait for tomorrow for them to process a withdrawal so long as nothing stupid is being done neither (!!), let's wait and see.

Good to hear, for a moment I thought you were laying any random high odds if you distinguish between maiden races and other races, this is the start of a good strategy. I thought if was random because I saw many bettors on other forums doing this and ending up bankrupt. Last year the highest odds I have seen win in Australia was 200/1 on Betfair (some time in August) but of course I have not followed all races. Cannot remember if it was a maiden race to be honest.

Bet #115:

Bet #114:



I've added a live bet against it in live, because he was the 1st horse to lead the race, I love to lay these longshot horses because I've seen this countless times in the UK where a 80-100 horse leads the race until 1000-1500 meters to go and then drifting all the way back ....

I got it for odds of 60 but unfortunately couldn't do the full balance - I got an error "You have reached your limit exposure", so would have to wait for BetInAsia to help with this, not that I'm bothered with this.

Thanks, I am waiting for the withdrawal to be processed so as long as it's not processed yet I can't count my chickens yet.

There is never any sure strategy and you're right about it.
You can pick old horses, not in maiden races, with odds of 100+, you should expect high odds in BetFair...

Gambling, some say, is like an art - there isn't any one way to explain it all ... you could build your own rules after getting "burned" on 100+ winners... Harness racing is much more dangerous than regular racing.

Also the Greyhound in the UK is quite solid as well when it comes to high odds (20+), but again there are no guarantees whatsoever, you cannot do it blindly one bet after another (well, you can, but you would be in a higher risk).

Is it worth it? I don't know, each one can apply this to his/her own way of betting ... let's say this - if you have $950 in your account, and want to round it to $1,000 - then this is one of the bet ways to increase your balance with a much smaller risk than simply betting on some 1.05 event (laying a bet is always better than only 2 possible outcomes, e.g. when you lay 1 dog not to win a 9 dog race, you actually have better chances to win because there are 8 other dogs who can give you profit - it's only 1 single dog out of 9 ... unlike tennis or basketball where the outcome is only 2 possible outcomes, which makes it harder to predict and with the house edge you would get crashed).

Bet #113:



I have slowed it all down, picking only 100+ ones now until the withdrawal gets processed.

The commission is Orbit's commission which is 3%.
There are no commissions besides this but they do allow only 1 free withdrawal every 30 days (not every month), any other withdrawal is subject to a 2% fee.