Topic: Does anyone else feel like Bitcoin is a safe investment? - page 6. (Read 6828 times)

I guess you could evaluate bitcoin just like any other asset. Ask three things, What is its return? What is its variance (risk)? and how are its returns correlated to other assets. Basically most assets these days are highly correlated. If you buy into the US stock market you are buying essentially the same asset as if you buy into any other market. If bitcoin is similarly highly correlated then it is just a risk return relationship. Think about it, if bitcoin is 10x as risky as the stock market and they are both highly correlated then you could invest in the stockmarket with 10:1 leverage and you would have the same asset as investing in bitcoin. Alternatively you could invest 10% in bitcoin and the rest in a basket of government bonds and you would have the same asset as the stock market. However if bitcoin is not highly correlated then you will have lowest risk if you invest in both assets. Correlation is the important thing not risk. A portfolio of many totally uncorrelated assets has virtually zero risk even if the individual assets are highly risky. Actually it is possibly that bitcoin is not very correlated to other conventional assets and that this is the reason for the high price because it makes sense to diversify any normal portfolio with bitcoin.

Well, the argument is based on the 10% extreme probability. In case of gold, there is a 10% chance that the value can come down from $1,200 / Oz to $600 / Oz. (Considering the demand for gold and the overall supply, I think this is very far fetched).

In case of Bitcoin, the 10% extreme probability means the reduction of value from $470 to $0.00. That is the difference between Bitcoin and gold.

Bitcoin is am investment with good prospects, but not a safe investment. Buying gold is a safe investment. Price of gold may go down, you may loose money, but it is still considered safe. ROI and risk may be linked, but they are not the same.

We all here are gambling..you cannot be sure on 100% about the long live of Bitcoin, you just can support it and believe it will survive in the future

Is Bitcoin an investment asset? Investment assets are stocks, bullion.etc. But isn't it against our objectives, if we term Bitcoin as an investment? No one considers fiat currency as an investment asset (well... except in very rare circumstances). I genuinely fear that the currency value of Bitcoin might decline, if we see it as more and more like an investment.

I feel it is a convenient hedge that shows its utility as a store of investment the less stable your countries financial system is

It is only as safe as you make it to be. There're many aspects to it, investment one of many. Bitcoin itself may be rock solid in terms of its fundamentals, but if you are careless with your security or are not technically savvy, you can lose all of your bitcoins in a blink of an eye. And once it's gone, it's gone, there's no such thing as salvaging what little you can salvage,  it's all or none. Understand Bitcoin thoroughly, not just its monetary aspect but its technical aspect as well, before you decide to 'invest' in it.

Two guys were hiking through the jungle when they spotted a tiger. One of the guys reached into his pack and pulled out a pair of Nikes. His friend looked at him.

"Do you really think those shoes are going to make you run faster than that tiger?"

"I don't have to run faster than that tiger. I just have to run faster than you."



What I mean is, the right question to ask is not whether Bitcoin is a safe investment. The right question to ask is what is more safe than Bitcoin and what is less safe? Because there is no such thing as 100% safety in investing. There are things that are in certain conditions more safe than Bitcoin, others are not. For example, is the pension system in most western countries safe, more safe than Bitcoin?

It will collapse, why else is the USA fighting for oil? Oil and military are the only two things that are backing the value of the US dollar. The USA is losing their military supremacy and their 'monopoly' on oil.

The question is not if fiat will collapse, the question is when.

I got the feeling many people feel this way.  Doesn't mean there is gonna be a smooth ride along they way.  Seems people either like or hate it but as far as a safe investment goes I'd say yes, if you do your research on how to protect your investment.

It can be hard to feel like Bitcoin is a "safe" investment when the price fluctuates as much as it does.  However, the truth is that over a decent amount of time, like 8 months to a year, it has proven to be a great store of value.  It is a very "liquid" investment though.  Funds can be moved very easily in and out, which is a huge advantage and actually adds less risk than something like real estate.

The refusal by almost everyone to consider the fact the USD could fail is why it will.  I fully understand what will happen.. I am not pleased at becoming a FEMA minion.

People, please stop the fuddery. US$ is NOT going to collapse, not tomorrow, not the day after. Sure, CNY will most likely replace it. SOMEDAY. We will all be licking Chinaman's balls for money. But, it won't be for a while longer.

If US$ were to collapse, do you know the consequences? Bitcoin will be the least of your worries, then.

Not investing in anything (having 100% of your assets being fiat) is also investing. And a risky one at that.

What if the dollar collapse tomorrow? You'll be poor as shit. Just like pretty much everyone else except the smart few who did not have 100% of their assets in fiat.

Of course you need to pay your monthly bills, buy food, etc mostly with fiat (at least until you can do that with bitcoin), however you should not leave large amounts of fiat at your bank.

If the dollar doesn't collapse, maybe your bank will, and a bail-in or bail-out is not as unlikely as it seems.

Personally I have enough fiat to last for a month (and also some problems if they should occur) and the rest is in silver and bitcoin (and soon gold). These three are much saver investments than fiat in my opinion.

This is how I feel.  The blockchain feels safe in that the coins wont just evaporate.  Wait for the first bail-in and others will see your point

Is fiat an investment?
You have to use fiat for your daily needs, so you need it, I don't think, there is currently a way around that.
There is also a difference between your savings and your investment. You can put all the fiat you don't currently need into any investment, but what if your car breaks down and you don't have the fiat to pay the repair. Is the conversion from your investment into fiat easy enough? Will you get out, what you put in, when you need money fast? How much time does it take for the conversion?

What I am trying to say is, that you should act smart and also think about, when something goes wrong. Being prepared for the case UK collapses but not be prepared if your car breaks down, isn't smart.

Well it's not controlled by a government or central bank; it's decentralized, that's something...

The question you should be asking is does any sane person belief fiat is a good investment?

Anyone who truly understands the financial system and has at least half a brain would say no.

The situation would be similar as in Greece, but for UK, it would mean notable effect worldwide (recession)

It can happen to mayors as well, all what matter is debt increase % versus inflation % over longer period

So, you are saying it is more likely for a whole country like UK to collapse, than for Bitcoin?
I am not so sure about that.
The question also is, what to do, when your country collapse? Take your Bitcoins and move to another country? Would another country take you?

I don't think, that just having bitcoins instead of fiat makes you save in any way.