Does martingale really works? - page 76.

Hfleer

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Quote from: deisik on August 12, 2014, 01:10:40 PM

Quote from: Hfleer on August 12, 2014, 01:02:05 PM

Quote from: deisik on August 12, 2014, 01:00:54 PM

Quote from: Hfleer on August 12, 2014, 12:58:52 PM

But is that really "working"? I would just call that shortterm luck.

That is like a fish in poker playing horrible and still having inredible luck. Sure he can win in the shortterm, but that doesn't mean his strategy works.

Do you get my angle?

No, I wouldn't call it sheer luck. You know what you're doing... Roll Eyes

Ok, so we do have very different definitions of "working" then Wink

When you toss a coin, chances that it lands on the same side are diminishing with each toss. Would you call this short-term luck if the coin does not fall 10 times in sequence on the same side? I would say quite the contrary! Cool

I call it chance. But I see that you are ignoring that.

The chance for it not to happen is: 1-0.5^10 , still if you make a martingale bet on it, then you will lose longterm...

deisik

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Quote from: Hfleer on August 12, 2014, 01:02:05 PM

Quote from: deisik on August 12, 2014, 01:00:54 PM

Quote from: Hfleer on August 12, 2014, 12:58:52 PM

But is that really "working"? I would just call that shortterm luck.

That is like a fish in poker playing horrible and still having inredible luck. Sure he can win in the shortterm, but that doesn't mean his strategy works.

Do you get my angle?

No, I wouldn't call it sheer luck. You know what you're doing... Roll Eyes

Ok, so we do have very different definitions of "working" then Wink

When you toss a coin, chances that it lands on the same side are diminishing with each toss. Would you call this short-term luck if the coin does not fall 10 times in sequence on the same side? I would say quite the contrary! Cool

Hfleer

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Activity: 448

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Changing avatars is currently not possible.

Quote from: deisik on August 12, 2014, 01:00:54 PM

Quote from: Hfleer on August 12, 2014, 12:58:52 PM

But is that really "working"? I would just call that shortterm luck.

That is like a fish in poker playing horrible and still having inredible luck. Sure he can win in the shortterm, but that doesn't mean his strategy works.

Do you get my angle?

No, I wouldn't call it sheer luck. You know what you're doing... Roll Eyes

Ok, so we do have very different definitions of "working" then Wink

deisik

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Quote from: Hfleer on August 12, 2014, 12:58:52 PM

But is that really "working"? I would just call that shortterm luck.

That is like a fish in poker playing horrible and still having inredible luck. Sure he can win in the shortterm, but that doesn't mean his strategy works.

Do you get my angle?

No, I wouldn't call it sheer luck. You know what you're doing... Roll Eyes

Hfleer

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

Changing avatars is currently not possible.

But is that really "working"? I would just call that shortterm luck.

That is like a fish in poker playing horrible and still having inredible luck. Sure he can win in the shortterm, but that doesn't mean his strategy works.

Do you get my angle?

deisik

legendary

Activity: 3514

Merit: 1280

English ⬄ Russian Translation Services

Quote from: Hfleer on August 12, 2014, 12:49:53 PM

Quote from: deisik on August 12, 2014, 12:47:42 PM

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Quote from: deisik on August 12, 2014, 12:34:01 PM

Quote from: Pony789 on August 12, 2014, 11:56:09 AM

Quote from: Hfleer on August 12, 2014, 11:30:40 AM

Quote from: deisik on August 12, 2014, 07:34:11 AM

Quote from: Hfleer on August 12, 2014, 04:24:15 AM

Quote from: deisik on August 12, 2014, 02:53:45 AM

Quote from: Hfleer on August 12, 2014, 02:10:10 AM

Even with unlimited money, you can't kill a casino that uses the kelly criterion. You can simulate that with computers. (Casinos without limits is a different story)

With unlimited money you can buy the casino and then still kill it! Grin

Haha. Thinking outside of the box.

Still martingale never works. Not even in theory.

It may not work in theory, but could work out in practice... Wink

What is that supposed to mean? Fact is that your expected value is negative, if you get lucky and make money with it in the short(or medium) term, that doesn't mean it worked..

Martingale never works.
You can get profit with martingale, only if you are lucky that day and don't experience a long enough losing streak.

Martingale is a gambling (trading) strategy. If it brings you profit, then it works, at least in practice. As simple as that... Roll Eyes

No, that maybe just semantics and you are no english native speaker, but for a "strategy" to work, the strategy needs to yield a positive expected value.

It doesn't matter whether I'm a native English speaker, there is virtually no trading strategy that guarantees you profit (those that do are usually not even worth looking at). The example you bring up is just a very specific case... Cool

Actually, you shouldn't talk about semantics, since I know that I use the word correctly Wink

So you are saying a strategy "works" even though you are guaranteed to lose money in the long run?

That is a very weird definition of "working".

In practice, working/not working is determined by your balance. In practice, it doesn't matter whether you are guaranteed to lose money in the long run, since there may not be "in the long run". You may just withdraw and never gamble again... Cool