Topic: Does not it bother anyone that BTC value increasing too fast? - page 3. (Read 7715 times)

offcoz you wont when its raising : )

Nothing will happen with those coins until after the trial, which will be years from now, guaranteed. How they get rid of the bitcoins is anyone's guess, although auction is a good one.  Tearing up the private key is another.  In either case, the people in charge of that decision are just as interested in maximizing their wealth as anyone. If they "crashed" the market while trying to unload their coins, I suspect someone would get fired.

Doesn't US government has like a couple of thousand BTC after Silk Road etc.? I mean if Uncle Sam really doesn't like Bitcoin, then now would be the perfect time to crash it. Unless it would be illegal for police to sell confiscated Bitcoin, but it shouldn't be different than auctioning confiscated cars or guns, no?

What bothers me more is that with every bubble comes people new to bitcoin who think they reinvented the wheel, such as OP who registered on October 28, 2013.

Having lived through the 2 prior "big bubbles," I say just enjoy it while it lasts. These are the happy times: everyone is making money and talking about million-dollar bitcoins and retirement and look like geniuses to all their uninitiated friends and colleagues.

The bad times come after the crash. Then you'll see these forums filled with people crying about Ponzi schemes, how Bitcoin is dead and Litecoin/Ripple/[insert]coin is the natural pretender to the cryptocurrency throne, how the US government/CIA/bankers conspired to destroy Bitcoin and finally won, and all the Bitcoin haters who tore their hair out for months then come back to declare victory.

I say "bad," but really I prefer those times. Much easier to buy more bitcoins and there's more focus on what I consider the more interesting bitcoin-related investments.

Exactly. If this rise is caused by new users coming in because of price rise, it's a house of cards. All it would take is one user selling off a 1000 BTC, or a couple hundred even, at once, everyone will start panicking and then.. pop. Hoarders here only seem to be thinking about short-term gains, not realizing or wanting to realize that it's only bad for Bitcoin long-term.

Yes, obviously. Which means that BTC is currently in it's infancy and needs it's user base to grow, before it can be ready to be adopted by big companies. On the other hand, how can it have it's user base grow if it's not adopted by anyone but speculators?

Bothers me as well. I think many people are coming in who don't care about Bitcoin at all and who just want in because it's going up.

2 days ago I was trying to convince a colleague about the benefits of Bitcoin. I did the entire pitch and explained the concept to him and he was mildly interested, but I don't think he'd have taken any action. After that I quickly mentioned at what price I bought it and what the current price is and BAM, suddenly I had all his attention .

Now, anything that gets people interested in Bitcoin can be good, but still, if people get in only because it's going up (but don't care about the fact that it's Bitcoin, it could just as well have been a random new company with prices looking like BTC charts) , then that's very worrying to me because these people will want to get out again immediately when it crashes and will probably tell everyone how it's a "scam" they should stay away from.

Slow and steady wins the race

"last year pick any day and MTGox had over 130k-150k of sale orders..
now there is 13k.. "

Is that based on number of trades, or $value of the trades?

I wonder what would have happened back in April if MtCox hadn't imploded. It just may have reached $500+ back then. And on that note, how much capacity do the major exchanges have right now? could they handle an extra 50-100% of trades? Barring any exchange collapses, the bubble could still be in a very early stage. if that is the case then there will be glitches when major holders decide they have enough to sell. But any wise trader would offload slowly so as not to upset the market in order to maximize their profits. Unlike when the Fed decides to bomb the gold price by dumping massive paper sell orders on gold they don't have. At the moment, BTC price is largely determined by there being more buyers than sellers. If we see someone dumping 1000+ bitcoins onto the market in one hit, and at a quiet trading time, then it is probably someone trying to deliberately crash the market. And they would probably succeed, for a short while at least. At the moment this bubble seems healthy. After it hits $500 the next phase could get very interesting.

My main issue is not that you question bitcoin as a/the major world currency. Or that you question a deflationary currency.

My main issue is you seem to paint the subject of bitcions success or failure as black or white, a be all or be nothing. There are so many things bitcoin can be - a means of frictionless money transfer, a real store of wealth, a niche currency, a country's currency, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

So to just run around calling bitcoin nothing more than a speculative bubble is disingenious by you, imo. Especially if you read as much as you said you have.

I personally believe bitcoins can have a 100 billion dollar market cap and be a niche currency at best. That's not failure. That's not a bubble. That's a small part of a global financial system.

You sound to me like someone who had the opportunity to buy bitcoins cheap and did not. Now you complain about potential future bitcoin millionaires. That's not geniune, imo. Because you are justifying not owning bitcoins because of some idealistic belief that bitcoin isn't the answer to the worlds financial problems. You know, it probably isnt THE answer to the world's financial problems. But that doesn't mean it isn't going to carve out a nice little niche for itself in the world. (ie 100 billion market cap+)

The government will "intervene" for a lot of stupid reasons but that isn't one of them.

i actually wish the price doesnt rise that fast. government will intervene if it rises too fast.

Ya , I still think everyone will be happy the price is rising this fast I mean I know there could be a drop in price but still everyone should be happy

This rise is the same speed as early March.

Unskilled speculation is bad, but skilled speculation is GOOD.

Requird reading: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1mb27q/bitcoins_vast_overvaluation_appears_caused_by/cc7i6y8

Less susceptible is still a system that will fail, just at a slower rate.  Which will force bailouts or it will all come tumbling down.  Why?  Because Bitcoin does not prevent banks from creating new money, since the money is just numbers on the banks balance sheet.  Just as if everyone used gold as currency, it wouldn't matter.  Fractional reserve banking can "print" as much money as it wants.  Run on the banks won't happen as long as people keep borrowing, which they are sure to do.


I've read countless arguments for and against deflationary currency like Bitcoin.  Maybe what you say will prove to be true and maybe not.  One thing is for sure, it's merely an untested theory.  Beyond that, it's the bigger problem that concerns me and if there is not a 100% solution to that, the system will fail, regardless if what you believe, proves to be true or not.  I'm not against Bitcoin, I just don't think it solves the problems, so while you're talking about thinking outside the box, maybe someone would like to deal with the global banking cartel, because just creating a currency free from government, isn't going to accomplish that.

Bailouts via new money that devalues existing money can't happen in bitcoin. Fractional reserve would still happen, obviously, but leverage would be a lot less because there's no implicit lender of last resort. Consumers would cause bank-runs MUCH sooner than 100:1 leverage. The system would be less susceptible to long-run extreme tail-risk and moral hazard.



It's hard for people to think outside of the plane on which they've lived their entire lives. We've all grown up under a monetary system where supply expands by mandate (ie, the Fed's long-run 2% inflation target). In that context, deflation is bad, yes. But it's bad primarily because it's not the norm; it's unexpected when it happens, people *continue* to know that overall the economy is INflationary, so they hoard *while* it's deflationary due to their future expectations of the return to the mean.

That's very different than an economy where there currency is credibly *guaranteed* to be deflationary in the long-run and where the *exact curve* of money supply dynamics is perfectly known to all economic participants. In such case, people's core demand/supply curves take over and they can allocate capital optimally according to their own preferences, without having to worry about whether the *current* money supply dynamics are out-of-whack wrt long-term expectations. That entire calculus just goes away. Thus no harmful "hoarding".

Again, it's tough for people to intuit this, given the monetary norms of the past century. Thus I'll cut "every other economist" some slack for another few years.

It's not about being short sighted, it's just the belief that deflationary currency is not going to work.  Aside from the fact It just doesn't solve any of the world's monetary problems, it looks at government as if it's the main problem and that to me is the short sighted aspect of Bitcoin.  We still have a currency that is controlled by few and is easily manipulated so, even IF Bitcoin were to somehow replace the dollar, nothing changes but the names on the mansions.  Since most currency isn't created by the government, it's created by banks in the form of bank credits, every time you take out a loan, Bitcoin doesn't change anything.  Because you still have a system that can not create enough currency to pay back the interest.  You might as well go back to the gold standard because it would be just as effective.  Meaning, not at all.  

Decentralization only solves one issue, but people who don't have it, still have to come get it from those who do, so it's the same bullshit.  It's funny you mention Ripple because since our freedom is our ability to issue our own currency, Ripple is the closest thing I see to providing a sustainable monetary system, as being beholden to a bunch of rich Bitcoiners is not monetary freedom.  It's the same slavery we have now, just to a different group of people.  

But it is an experiment...so prove me wrong and every other economist that says deflationary currency won't work.  Do it but as the bubble grows bigger and more and more people hoard, it looks less and less likely.  That's not ideology, that's just math.

As you're watching this bubble, check out the "stupidity forum", specifically Ebay. When old BFL FPGA units go from selling for $70 to $150+ for an 800 MH unit, you know people are being stupid.

When Crock Erupters go from $8 to $20+, you know people are being stupid.

Mining contracts? Yep, stupid.

Myself? I picked up 4 bfl chips for about $100 and am putting them on my $169.00 Jally. Got two on, hashing 16gh now. One more tomorrow, one more after I drop $20 for a set of heat sinks for the FETs.

Smart. 18gh or 800mh or 1.8gh. Where do you spend your $120?

C

Bubbles are pretty awesome.

Generally I'm not too worried, I'm just going to sell my BTC now and wait for a correction so I can purchase again.

...and that's why nobody ever bought a computer. They're always getting cheaper and more powerful so everyone is still waiting to buy one.