Topic: Does not it bother anyone that BTC value increasing too fast? - page 4. (Read 7655 times)
November 17, 2013, 12:59:50 AM
This is the best explanation I have come across so far. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI
November 17, 2013, 12:58:17 AM
November 17, 2013, 12:49:54 AM
Define "too fast".
November 16, 2013, 11:16:54 PM
it definitely concerns me. like everyone, i don't know how much of it is attributed to actual utility of BTC vs. speculation. and also like most, i suspect that its growth has been due more to speculation than utility, although utility has improved a great deal within the past few months.
November 16, 2013, 11:01:27 PM
If you have tens of thousands of coins, this makes sense. I mean if BTC were to reach a 100 billion dollar market cap one day, there might not be much difference for the average person whether they have $250 million or $75 million. So selling a majority of your holding at price points that allows you to have the lifestyle you want now, while mitigating your long term risk in case bitcoin goes down the rabbit hole, makes sense.
You nailed it on all counts with respect to my situation (with fuzz for exact numbers.)
I, for one, like the idea of large bitcoin holders selling the majority of their coins over time. I think it provides more liquidity and allows the exchanges and other future agents of trade to give us correct valuations, instead of people always screaming speculation from the rooftops.
True indeed. Since my first real exposure to Bitcoin, a really big problem in my mind was the GINI index. I've yet to figure out a solution to that, and suspect that there basically is none. But certain things could help.
Early on I was drawn to Bitcoin because I hypothesized that if large holders abused their situation, the small holders could in theory revolt simply by changing software. In this way Bitcoin is vastly superior to gold. This is why the GINI thing bugs me. That is to say, maybe I am right
I was buying down into late 2011. At that time I honestly felt that I was playing a valuable role by soaking up excess liquidity in a time of significant crisis. I ended up with far more BTC than I expected to have. Of course my primary desire was to get rich, but if I can both get rich and buffer out some of the volatility at the same time, I'm happy to oblige.
November 16, 2013, 10:38:52 PM
At the moment, over the course of the lifetime of me selling my BTC, I am way way way into profit. Now I have started to gather up BTC again and I strongly believe now the prices for BTC we are seeing increasing are nowhere near a plateau.
November 16, 2013, 09:58:50 PM
its highly likely that what we are seeing now is bunch of people investing on the hype without knowing much of bitcoin history. they probably still doubt its legitimacy and afraid of it going down. but then we have bunch of experienced users who seen it all and sitting on cash. once exchanges dry out and markets become very tiny and vulnerable (and expensive) all you will need is a whale dumping their coins bringing price down. in panic we will have bunch of newbs selling in panic of collapse. as we go down the experienced users will be watching closely to pick up on threshold price they are comfortable with. therefore earlier users will want it lower than later users as they came into game as the price was relatively high already. i believe we will be crashing, though times are different. more and more people are gaining trust in bitcoins nowdays therefore recovery will be almost instant with another bubble forming. fun times.
I'm a little doubtful that experienced users will be buying on crashes in great quantity. Many of them probably have a lot of BTC and are feeling over-extended due to the price rise. That's the boat I'm in. I'm selling but not buying even though my confidence in the solution is as high as it ever has been (in terms of getting rich...not necessarily in terms of politics.) The next collapse will see me switching from sell mode to hold mode, but it would take a fall to below $2.00 in the absence of any defect to turn me into a buyer again. I'll be shocked to see that.
Of course some experienced users might be traders and willing to play the markets, but I am sure that a lot of them are not.
If you have tens of thousands of coins, this makes sense. I mean if BTC were to reach a 100 billion dollar market cap one day, there might not be much difference for the average person whether they have $250 million or $75 million. So selling a majority of your holding at price points that allows you to have the lifestyle you want now, while mitigating your long term risk in case bitcoin goes down the rabbit hole, makes sense.
I, for one, like the idea of large bitcoin holders selling the majority of their coins over time. I think it provides more liquidity and allows the exchanges and other future agents of trade to give us correct valuations, instead of people always screaming speculation from the rooftops.
November 16, 2013, 09:01:09 PM
its highly likely that what we are seeing now is bunch of people investing on the hype without knowing much of bitcoin history. they probably still doubt its legitimacy and afraid of it going down. but then we have bunch of experienced users who seen it all and sitting on cash. once exchanges dry out and markets become very tiny and vulnerable (and expensive) all you will need is a whale dumping their coins bringing price down. in panic we will have bunch of newbs selling in panic of collapse. as we go down the experienced users will be watching closely to pick up on threshold price they are comfortable with. therefore earlier users will want it lower than later users as they came into game as the price was relatively high already. i believe we will be crashing, though times are different. more and more people are gaining trust in bitcoins nowdays therefore recovery will be almost instant with another bubble forming. fun times.
I'm a little doubtful that experienced users will be buying on crashes in great quantity. Many of them probably have a lot of BTC and are feeling over-extended due to the price rise. That's the boat I'm in. I'm selling but not buying even though my confidence in the solution is as high as it ever has been (in terms of getting rich...not necessarily in terms of politics.) The next collapse will see me switching from sell mode to hold mode, but it would take a fall to below $2.00 in the absence of any defect to turn me into a buyer again. I'll be shocked to see that.
Of course some experienced users might be traders and willing to play the markets, but I am sure that a lot of them are not.
November 16, 2013, 08:57:11 PM
It may be time to accept the fact that Bitcoin is not about anything other than making as much money hoarding and speculating as possible. Everything else is just sales market pitch to get more people buying in, to swell the bubbles and feed those at the top of the pyramid. Most everyone else is going to be bagholders, sooner or later. This is a rerun with fancier coding. I guess I should just say, "thanks" and make sure I don't get caught holding one of those bags. 
Wow. Someone still living in reality. I'm impressed. Not too many left on this forum. After all, hope spring is eternal.
I like your comments Coinseeker. Must be hard to make such comments with so many people having such a bullish view on this 'currency'.
The "reality" is the world is changing. And as much as some, like yourself, want to criticize the rise of price of BTC on speculation, all new technology is, to some great degree, speculative. That's why venture capitalists are called venture capitalists.
What's gets me is the shortsightedness of this viewpoint. First of all, it assumes that BTC's great value is in its ability to be (or not be) a viable worldwide currency. There is not necessarily a great argument that indeed BTC's greatest possibility is as a currency to begin with.
But EVEN if that is true, to assume that a decentralized currency could be have price stability when it is but a few years old, is ridiculous. It's like screaming at a baby for not being able to do calculus. It just does not make sense.
November 16, 2013, 08:54:15 PM
by the way. where would i find info on how much different exchanges hold? or maybe total number of how much they sell/buy. that will truly indicate to us how weak those exchanges are at the moment and when wales are highly likely to sell. it seems the quicker we go up, the more people start hoarding, the less bitcoins get to the market. we need slow, stable growth for this to succeed. so maybe less media exposure would serve us better at this given moment to gain international credibility as a solid investment. It could be that bitcoin is being attacked in such way so public is being encouraged to pump it and then get burned - as result abandoning this idea. since negative coverage didn’t work much – now the tactic has been changed.
November 16, 2013, 08:42:19 PM
its highly likely that what we are seeing now is bunch of people investing on the hype without knowing much of bitcoin history. they probably still doubt its legitimacy and afraid of it going down. but then we have bunch of experienced users who seen it all and sitting on cash. once exchanges dry out and markets become very tiny and vulnerable (and expensive) all you will need is a whale dumping their coins bringing price down. in panic we will have bunch of newbs selling in panic of collapse. as we go down the experienced users will be watching closely to pick up on threshold price they are comfortable with. therefore earlier users will want it lower than later users as they came into game as the price was relatively high already. i believe we will be crashing, though times are different. more and more people are gaining trust in bitcoins nowdays therefore recovery will be almost instant with another bubble forming. fun times.
November 16, 2013, 08:29:17 PM
Yes it worries me a lot. Only speculators and short-term hoarders like bubbles, merchants generally hate them and I am one.
Rise in value is welcome as masses adopt the currency, but that rise has to be no more than 5% per year. Otherwise, it encourages hoarding and greatly discourages trading (which is, you know, the whole point of currency). And when a bubble pops Bitcoin will receive another dosage of negative press which will offset it's mainstream adoption again. In the end it's merchants who accept Bitcoin, that can make it a currency, not speculators, and merchants will not accept it, if it's jumping in value so wildly.
The volume on the exchanges is paper thin, and all it takes is one guy with a 1000 BTC suddenly deciding to liquidate his holdings, and then all this greed of hoarders, that you see on the boards here, will be replaced with fear and then - another crash, long-term damaging Bitcoin once again.
Rise in value is welcome as masses adopt the currency, but that rise has to be no more than 5% per year. Otherwise, it encourages hoarding and greatly discourages trading (which is, you know, the whole point of currency). And when a bubble pops Bitcoin will receive another dosage of negative press which will offset it's mainstream adoption again. In the end it's merchants who accept Bitcoin, that can make it a currency, not speculators, and merchants will not accept it, if it's jumping in value so wildly.
The volume on the exchanges is paper thin, and all it takes is one guy with a 1000 BTC suddenly deciding to liquidate his holdings, and then all this greed of hoarders, that you see on the boards here, will be replaced with fear and then - another crash, long-term damaging Bitcoin once again.
If a merchant is accepting bitcoins as payment, and uses a payment provider like BitPay, not one satoshi is either gained nor lost due to having the fiat equivalent sent to their banking institute, if that's the way they have sales set up through BitPay, oppose to having them sent to another address in the merchant's control. If the later, then BitPay wouldn't necessarily be needed, with the exception of having a better interface in place.
Your concern is valid if paid via bitcoins to your wallet address and waiting hours/days to convert, otherwise a $100 sale puts $100, sans the ~1% fee, into your bank account, usually within 24 hours. It works the same way as if using PayPal, but without a 3.9% + $.35 fee structure or fear of chargebacks.
~TMIBTCITW
November 16, 2013, 08:26:24 PM
It may be time to accept the fact that Bitcoin is not about anything other than making as much money hoarding and speculating as possible. Everything else is just sales market pitch to get more people buying in, to swell the bubbles and feed those at the top of the pyramid. Most everyone else is going to be bagholders, sooner or later. This is a rerun with fancier coding. I guess I should just say, "thanks" and make sure I don't get caught holding one of those bags.
Wow. Someone still living in reality. I'm impressed. Not too many left on this forum. After all, hope spring is eternal.
I like your comments Coinseeker. Must be hard to make such comments with so many people having such a bullish view on this 'currency'.
November 16, 2013, 08:20:19 PM
It amazes me how short sighted people can be.
Well it is easy to be "short sighted" when pushing an agenda.
November 16, 2013, 08:16:14 PM
Bubbles may be good for speculation but they are detrimental to a currency. A currency requires stability. If the consensus is that, "This is just Bitcoin" and "It will always be like this.", then Bitcoin will never be a legitimate currency. It will forever remain a speculative commodity, until people lose interest and move on to the next hot investment idea. And that's not even adding manipulation to the equation, which all but renders Bitcoin useless as a currency by itself, and offers nothing to replace our current monetary system. Those with the most, will skew the markets in their direction. Same shit, different name.
It may be time to accept the fact that Bitcoin is not about anything other than making as much money hoarding and speculating as possible. Everything else is just sales market pitch to get more people buying in, to swell the bubbles and feed those at the top of the pyramid. Most everyone else is going to be bagholders, sooner or later. This is a rerun with fancier coding. I guess I should just say, "thanks" and make sure I don't get caught holding one of those bags.
It may be time to accept the fact that Bitcoin is not about anything other than making as much money hoarding and speculating as possible. Everything else is just sales market pitch to get more people buying in, to swell the bubbles and feed those at the top of the pyramid. Most everyone else is going to be bagholders, sooner or later. This is a rerun with fancier coding. I guess I should just say, "thanks" and make sure I don't get caught holding one of those bags.
What the hell do you expect dude?
Your arguments suggest no open source decentralized currency could ever be effective, because there is no way in hell you are going to give people the opportunity to invest in an open limited technology that is also a potential useful currency and NOT have MASSIVE fluctuations and volatility in its adoption phase.
I mean you are arguing against Bitcoin as a currency because of it's price volatility.
Then just go promote fiat. Or a centralized Ripple currency or ask Google to make Google coins. Because there is absolutely positively no way around the fact that disruptive technologies grow exponentially and with exponential growth you WILL have extreme volatility for months and years.
It amazes me how short sighted people can be.
And currency is only 1 of a myriad of potential globally disruptive aspects of the btc technology. Amazing.
November 16, 2013, 08:13:20 PM
And likely the last...deflation prevents spending and thus it's not an economy at all but just a speculative commodity, with a finite shelf life. But, we'd never known if we hadn't tried right? After this experiment is over, hopefully we can come up with some realistic solutions to our monetary systems problems.
Keep waiting. Bitcoin actually has monetary inflation and will have it for over a century. Price deflation would still be likely in Bitcoin even in the rate of printing was much higher.
November 16, 2013, 08:04:08 PM
What is new and support constant price rise, is that Bitcoin is a defaltionary currency.. It's the first time a defaltion economy is created and is used..
Price may keep going up forever...
Price may keep going up forever...
And likely the last...deflation prevents spending and thus it's not an economy at all but just a speculative commodity, with a finite shelf life. But, we'd never known if we hadn't tried right? After this experiment is over, hopefully we can come up with some realistic solutions to our monetary systems problems.
November 16, 2013, 08:02:06 PM
Nope. Too the moon!
November 16, 2013, 07:49:01 PM
What is new and support constant price rise, is that Bitcoin is a defaltionary currency.. It's the first time a defaltion economy is created and is used..
Price may keep going up forever...
Price may keep going up forever...
November 16, 2013, 07:32:45 PM
I honestly can't see bitcoin continuing like this forever. It's price is increasing at such a rate that I believe it must at some point collapse under it's own weight. The price will drop so severely that most disregard bitcoin for the foreseeable future and it is left at a meager price with only hardcore enthusiasts still using the currency.
Sure.
Bitcoin has crashed hard in the past and it didn't bring about doom and gloom despite similar predicts both before and after major crashes.
That's very true and likely will be true moving forward. However, I suspect it will expose Bitcoin as something that is not a viable currency. And if people don't believe it's a viable currency, it doesn't matter how high or low the price is. The may speculate on it but they simply won't use for commerce. And honestly, what percentage of the world population speculates for a living?
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