A small number of lucky ASIC early purchasers can make a killing, while the majority of orders go unfulfilled.
These early ASIC purchasers are at risk of buoyant optimism causing them to invest all of their earnings in more ASIC units and where they'll lose money.
The ASIC argument is all about what happens when you have high capital costs, a low marginal cost of production, and an overall market (production of BTC) that is constant. Namely ASIC prices will fall 90% while the hash rate goes through the roof. Perhaps you could argue that growth in BTC value makes the market not constant? However I still don't think it will keep up with the marginal cost problem.
Topic: Does this forum have bears? - page 3. (Read 5428 times)
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it seems to me you're out of step with one component of that process. for interest rates to rise, bonds have to sell off, liberating a huge sum of fiat money. where might that go? a good chunk of that could go to Bitcoin to fuel further price rises. of course, at some point, as the Bitcoin prices and interest rates top out together, then you might get the shift back into bonds from Bitcoin. but that could be a long time from now and at much higher Bitcoin prices.
Interest rates will rise to normal levels when the Federal Reserve stops printing money. There won't be new money that is freed up in this process. If the Federal Reserve were to shrink its balance sheet (as it has promised to do eventually), it will actually take away money from the rest of the economy.
I'm extremely bearish on the dollar. Does that count?
wait a minute... he was a stupid bear, and now hes turning bull finaly...
oh ic , nope no one is bearish atm
(this is an old thread though, this one is newer: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3517639&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1 )
What is this 'something awful'-forum? Firstly their green font on a black background gave me a headache, secondly, at least on that first page, there wasn't a single coherent post that smelled remotely of any kind of intelligence. I felt a bit like walking among thugs without a brain, going there. How on earth have they managed to gather so many fools on a single forum ? And why on earth does anyone indulge in any mindless drivel like this ?
Just go there and see for yourself. Imagine a foreign alien peaking into the internet, and the SA-forum is the first thing they see. He reports to his superiors: "Not sure, but it seems like they've developed a very advanced form of cryptographic communication that manifests itself as drivel. This is really advanced, let's move on to the next planet, and deal with these geniuses later on!"
I know right? Read a few posts too many and your brain will start rotting like something awful...
TOR has been surviving for longer than SR, and not going anywhere. So if SR itself gets busted, someone replaces it. I fully expect cartels to wake up and amazon.com the SR eventually.
I agree SR would be quickly replaced, but I doubt the cartels would be so direct. Most buyers don't like the idea of supporting these violent organizations, so they need a couple layers of obfuscation so they can feel like they are buying from some guy who grows in his basement, even if that's not true.
Heheh well said.
(this is an old thread though, this one is newer: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3517639&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1 )
What is this 'something awful'-forum? Firstly their green font on a black background gave me a headache, secondly, at least on that first page, there wasn't a single coherent post that smelled remotely of any kind of intelligence. I felt a bit like walking among thugs without a brain, going there. How on earth have they managed to gather so many fools on a single forum ? And why on earth does anyone indulge in any mindless drivel like this ?
Just go there and see for yourself. Imagine a foreign alien peaking into the internet, and the SA-forum is the first thing they see. He reports to his superiors: "Not sure, but it seems like they've developed a very advanced form of cryptographic communication that manifests itself as drivel. This is really advanced, let's move on to the next planet, and deal with these geniuses later on!"
TOR has been surviving for longer than SR, and not going anywhere. So if SR itself gets busted, someone replaces it. I fully expect cartels to wake up and amazon.com the SR eventually.
I agree SR would be quickly replaced, but I doubt the cartels would be so direct. Most buyers don't like the idea of supporting these violent organizations, so they need a couple layers of obfuscation so they can feel like they are buying from some guy who grows in his basement, even if that's not true.
Possible causes for the bubble bursting
-ASIC financial losses
https://twitter.com/jgarzik/status/300138033590718464
9 days to recoupe outlay.
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-shutdown of Silk Road
TOR has been surviving for longer than SR, and not going anywhere. So if SR itself gets busted, someone replaces it. I fully expect cartels to wake up and amazon.com the SR eventually.
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-US/SEC crackdown on Bitcoin
Perhaps. The US has waaayy bigger problems right now than bitcoin. The bitcoin network itself is a p2p network that moves crypto-hashes. It breaks no laws in itself, unlike perhaps that possible with bittorrent, which accounts for 30%-40% of Internet traffic.
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-creation of better alternatives (possibly from people that have nothing to do with the current bitcoin economy, possibly sponsored by governments or large corporations who can build a network/community dwarfing bitcoin's overnight)
And maybe China lands on the moon by 2050.....
Seth gave a great list of good developments for bitcoin. Now obviously not all bitcoin projects will succeed (I'd bet against Coinbase and the bitcard), but that is true of any economy. So long as enough projects succeed, bitcoin may be in good hands.
In the past bear market, I thought that there was a good chance (say 1/10) that BTC could go down to zero. I felt that the bear market would cause people to lose so much money that the community would be destroyed and it wouldn't recover. However now it is pretty clear that won't happen.
I'm still skeptical because with a market cap of $250 million, if we have a money velocity of 4 - then we should we be doing $1 billion (or 43 million BTC) in trade each year. I don't see that happening yet. Instead we have a lot of money sitting around and speculation that doesn't do anyone good.
In the past bear market, I thought that there was a good chance (say 1/10) that BTC could go down to zero. I felt that the bear market would cause people to lose so much money that the community would be destroyed and it wouldn't recover. However now it is pretty clear that won't happen.
I'm still skeptical because with a market cap of $250 million, if we have a money velocity of 4 - then we should we be doing $1 billion (or 43 million BTC) in trade each year. I don't see that happening yet. Instead we have a lot of money sitting around and speculation that doesn't do anyone good.
i don't agree. at this stage of the game, its important to have a smoothly rising price from speculation to encourage more merchants to enter the fray. i don't understand why alot of ppl expect/expected Bitcoin to have all elements of a successful new currency in place from day one. its an evolutionary process of which all the components will come together with time.
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I'm not sure what monetary velocity makes sense. If BTC was mature, my guess is the velocity would be 4-10 (as it is easy to transfer). However in an immature and rapid growth economy you just need to have an expectation that the velocity will reach 4+ in the near future.
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Another possible cause for a BTC price decline is that interest rates in developed economies could return to historical levels thus encouraging investors to move their money from BTC into bonds that provide a low-risk and positive rate of return. Currently if you have your money in a US bank or ten year treasury you get paid less than the inflation rate (and lose even more money after taxes).
it seems to me you're out of step with one component of that process. for interest rates to rise, bonds have to sell off, liberating a huge sum of fiat money. where might that go? a good chunk of that could go to Bitcoin to fuel further price rises. of course, at some point, as the Bitcoin prices and interest rates top out together, then you might get the shift back into bonds from Bitcoin. but that could be a long time from now and at much higher Bitcoin prices.
Seth gave a great list of good developments for bitcoin. Now obviously not all bitcoin projects will succeed (I'd bet against Coinbase and the bitcard), but that is true of any economy. So long as enough projects succeed, bitcoin may be in good hands.
In the past bear market, I thought that there was a good chance (say 1/10) that BTC could go down to zero. I felt that the bear market would cause people to lose so much money that the community would be destroyed and it wouldn't recover. However now it is pretty clear that won't happen.
I'm still skeptical because with a market cap of $250 million, if we have a money velocity of 4 - then we should we be doing $1 billion (or 43 million BTC) in trade each year. I don't see that happening yet. Instead we have a lot of money sitting around and speculation that doesn't do anyone good.
I'm not sure what monetary velocity makes sense. If BTC was mature, my guess is the velocity would be 4-10 (as it is easy to transfer). However in an immature and rapid growth economy you just need to have an expectation that the velocity will reach 4+ in the near future.
...
Another possible cause for a BTC price decline is that interest rates in developed economies could return to historical levels thus encouraging investors to move their money from BTC into bonds that provide a low-risk and positive rate of return. Currently if you have your money in a US bank or ten year treasury you get paid less than the inflation rate (and lose even more money after taxes).
In the past bear market, I thought that there was a good chance (say 1/10) that BTC could go down to zero. I felt that the bear market would cause people to lose so much money that the community would be destroyed and it wouldn't recover. However now it is pretty clear that won't happen.
I'm still skeptical because with a market cap of $250 million, if we have a money velocity of 4 - then we should we be doing $1 billion (or 43 million BTC) in trade each year. I don't see that happening yet. Instead we have a lot of money sitting around and speculation that doesn't do anyone good.
I'm not sure what monetary velocity makes sense. If BTC was mature, my guess is the velocity would be 4-10 (as it is easy to transfer). However in an immature and rapid growth economy you just need to have an expectation that the velocity will reach 4+ in the near future.
...
Another possible cause for a BTC price decline is that interest rates in developed economies could return to historical levels thus encouraging investors to move their money from BTC into bonds that provide a low-risk and positive rate of return. Currently if you have your money in a US bank or ten year treasury you get paid less than the inflation rate (and lose even more money after taxes).
Being a long term bear on bitcoin is about the same as being long term bull on fiat. Both could be classified as a form of insanity.
Do you keep a list or do these just pop up in your head?
I really should have made a new thread. I started that list a while ago and I just adjust the data and add/subtract from it every now and then.
EDIT: actually, I will start a new thread.
I do not understand why the price is so high. Gambling? Hording?
The price is going up too fast (compared to the growth of Bitcoin economy). There is too much speculation and not enough real community/production. And the fact that people are borrowing money at 150% APR (on Bitfinex) to go long is absurd.
Thanks for the analisys nrd525. There are good reasons for a price increase this time. Here's whats different from a year ago:
Silk Road is doing at least 2mil/month. Forum usage up hundreds of percent over last year.
A $10mil company will be releasing the BitcoinCard this year at the Vienna Bitcoin Conference. The Russian founders say 5 years of research have gone into this technology allowing a super-low-power credit card sized device to send texts, bitcoins, login info, and consumer data through an ad-hoc network instead of cell towers, at a card cost of only $10-$25
The block reward has halved, decreasing the supply of new coins to 3600 coins/day
Network transaction fees per day are up 1100% from 4 to 48
SatoshiDice has shown the potential of the bitcoin gambling market by earning $600k, including 17,266 bitcoins in December
BitInstant lets you buy bitcoins at walmart, 7-11, and CVS
Explosion in p2p exchanges for cash or bank transfers on sites like localbitcoins
There are many different bitcoin wallets for android and iPhone.
Many companies in the bitcoin community have gone public.
Coinlab and BitPay each got 500k in venture capital. Coinbase got 100k.
Wordpress signed up with BitPay, the 20th largest website in the world. BitPay then doubled their number of merchants in three months.
Somewhere around 3000 merchants accept bitcoin, up several hundred percent.
Bitcoin Foundation Launched in September 2012
Bitcoin can be traded on forex exchanges
New bitcoin based businesses are announced every day due to zero barrier to entry
Do you keep a list or do these just pop up in your head?
most Bitcoin Bears will cover a short with 5-10% profit and count themselves lucky... so in reality most bears are really long term bulls that believe price will go down for a sec
I do not understand why the price is so high. Gambling? Hording?
The price is going up too fast (compared to the growth of Bitcoin economy). There is too much speculation and not enough real community/production. And the fact that people are borrowing money at 150% APR (on Bitfinex) to go long is absurd.
Thanks for the analisys nrd525. There are good reasons for a price increase this time. Here's whats different from a year ago:
Silk Road is doing at least 2mil/month. Forum usage up hundreds of percent over last year.
A $10mil company will be releasing the BitcoinCard this year at the Vienna Bitcoin Conference. The Russian founders say 5 years of research have gone into this technology allowing a super-low-power credit card sized device to send texts, bitcoins, login info, and consumer data through an ad-hoc network instead of cell towers, at a card cost of only $10-$25
The block reward has halved, decreasing the supply of new coins to 3600 coins/day
Network transaction fees per day are up 1100% from 4 to 48
SatoshiDice has shown the potential of the bitcoin gambling market by earning $600k, including 17,266 bitcoins in December
BitInstant lets you buy bitcoins at walmart, 7-11, and CVS
Explosion in p2p exchanges for cash or bank transfers on sites like localbitcoins
There are many different bitcoin wallets for android and iPhone.
Many companies in the bitcoin community have gone public.
Coinlab and BitPay each got 500k in venture capital. Coinbase got 100k.
Wordpress signed up with BitPay, the 20th largest website in the world. BitPay then doubled their number of merchants in three months.
Somewhere around 3000 merchants accept bitcoin, up several hundred percent.
Bitcoin Foundation Launched in September 2012
Bitcoin can be traded on forex exchanges
New bitcoin based businesses are announced every day due to zero barrier to entry
Do you keep a list or do these just pop up in your head?
I do not understand why the price is so high. Gambling? Hording?
The price is going up too fast (compared to the growth of Bitcoin economy). There is too much speculation and not enough real community/production. And the fact that people are borrowing money at 150% APR (on Bitfinex) to go long is absurd.
Thanks for the analisys nrd525. There are good reasons for a price increase this time. Here's whats different from a year ago:
Silk Road is doing at least 2mil/month. Forum usage up hundreds of percent over last year.
A $10mil company will be releasing the BitcoinCard this year at the Vienna Bitcoin Conference. The Russian founders say 5 years of research have gone into this technology allowing a super-low-power credit card sized device to send texts, bitcoins, login info, and consumer data through an ad-hoc network instead of cell towers, at a card cost of only $10-$25
The block reward has halved, decreasing the supply of new coins to 3600 coins/day
Network transaction fees per day are up 1100% from 4 to 48
SatoshiDice has shown the potential of the bitcoin gambling market by earning $600k, including 17,266 bitcoins in December
BitInstant lets you buy bitcoins at walmart, 7-11, and CVS
Explosion in p2p exchanges for cash or bank transfers on sites like localbitcoins
There are many different bitcoin wallets for android and iPhone.
Many companies in the bitcoin community have gone public.
Coinlab and BitPay each got 500k in venture capital. Coinbase got 100k.
Wordpress signed up with BitPay, the 20th largest website in the world. BitPay then doubled their number of merchants in three months.
Somewhere around 3000 merchants accept bitcoin, up several hundred percent.
Bitcoin Foundation Launched in September 2012
Bitcoin can be traded on forex exchanges
New bitcoin based businesses are announced every day due to zero barrier to entry
Well. It might be getting another bear if this continues.
Relying on Mr. big money and/or a horde of newcomers to keep a gigantic rally running? I'm generally confident in Bitcoin, but it is getting excessive again. I'm drifting between balanced and bearish lately, haven't felt super bullish in a while.
The reasoning is quite simple: fundamentals aren't clear, and the surge in price is at least supported -- maybe even dominated -- by people who don't seem to know what they're doing. Check out reddit and the likes, posts like "I told my bro how much profit I made so he bought too!!!!" are not rare. So yaaa... pro traders at work.
Relying on Mr. big money and/or a horde of newcomers to keep a gigantic rally running? I'm generally confident in Bitcoin, but it is getting excessive again. I'm drifting between balanced and bearish lately, haven't felt super bullish in a while.
The reasoning is quite simple: fundamentals aren't clear, and the surge in price is at least supported -- maybe even dominated -- by people who don't seem to know what they're doing. Check out reddit and the likes, posts like "I told my bro how much profit I made so he bought too!!!!" are not rare. So yaaa... pro traders at work.
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