Topic: Does this forum have bears? - page 4. (Read 5428 times)

HERE'S A COUPLE!

I'm expecting a retracement, myself. The only problem is - you don't short into an uptrend. When it breaks my trendlines, then it is time to bail.

Any good trader looks at both sides.

i would *sell short if there was some place that offered it where i didnt have a 50/50 chance of being swindled

I wrote my first blog post about bitcoin and how it was a bubble when it was at $17.  I sold my short position at around $2.10.

I stopped being a bear once the price settled down (and wrote a bunch of posts saying Pirate was likely a ponzi), but have now regained faith.

One of my original arguments (that nobody else seems to use) is that Bitcoin is not unique and faces an infinite (or at least very large) number of competitors (anyone can create an alternative currency).  So I feel the whole limited supply / necessary deflation view that most people hold is wrong.

I don't think that will cause the current bubble to crash.  But I do think we're obviously in a bubble.  The price is going up too fast (compared to the growth of Bitcoin economy).  There is too much speculation and not enough real community/production.  And the fact that people are borrowing money at 150% APR (on Bitfinex) to go long is absurd.

On the other hand, I'm surprised at how resilient the Bitcoin economy has been in the wake of scams and hacks. So I think it will survive the ASIC meltdown.  That is to say most people who buy ASICs will lose money, as will most ASIC companies - due to the dangers of a low marginal cost of production.

Possible causes for the bubble bursting
-people realizing it is a bubble
-ASIC financial losses
-shutdown of Silk Road
-US/SEC crackdown on Bitcoin
-creation of better alternatives (possibly from people that have nothing to do with the current bitcoin economy, possibly sponsored by governments or large corporations who can build a network/community dwarfing bitcoin's overnight)

I think I'm slowly becoming bearish, since I can't really see how the network can agree to the block size limit fork at this point. It really should have been done in 2010 when Bitcoin was not as important as it is now.

OTOH, I think the price may dip far below current level even if we don't hit the transaction limit.

Awesome - my first tip - thanks! Been on the board since June 2011 and I just got around to actually putting one of my addresses in my sig today!

I think I am a bit more neutral than many people here, does that make me a bear? I still believe it's entirely possible that the market could crash right around the corner. But unlike some daydreaming bears here, I am not going to keep my hopes up high that I will have the chance to buy single digit coins simply because I didn't buy more at the time.

I am a bear.. But i am also a miner so i am conflicted sometimes. I do not understand why the price is so high. Gambling? Hording? Seems like a lot of btc is one the sidelines right now not apparent in current asks that will show up in an amazing fashion some day soon.

and look at my post, right under the OP.

overpay? 

I posted this in mid-July. Within two months the bear pirateat40 (well, more likely his business and trading strategy) had been shot, skinned, gutted, grilled and eaten for lunch.

Defaulting doesn't make your business venture a ponzi.  There is no evidence beyond the conviction laid down by the peanut gallery.  It could very easily have been short trading gone bad.

Paying 7% a week in BTC is perfectly sustainable if the BTC / USD rate drops at a compound rate greater than 7% a week as it did in the fall of 2011. All you do is sell your BTC for USD and hold USD. When the BTC / USD first stabilized and then started to rise this bear first tried to manipulate the market (hugh mistake) and when this did not work then it became indistinguishable from a ponzi.

It is the real rate of return not the nominal rate of return one has to look at in order to determine if something is a ponzi or not.

Running a ponzi doesn't make someone a bear.

The biggest BTC bear has to be pirateat40; however he defaulted on his massive BTC short position six months ago.

Buy the corrections; It's past due for one now.

If you want a dosis of bitcoin hate, you could go to the SA forum:

http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3413928&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1
(this is an old thread though, this one is newer: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3517639&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1 )

Bunch of idiots making fun of "stupid nerds with fake money".  I wonder what kind of return they are making on their investments though   .  

Bears are becoming rare because they are being hunted to extinction, but if I see any I will let you know.

Yeah yeah I got it after I pressed post 

have you ever heard of sarcasm?

Dude lol.. I was being sarcastic,

Torrenting is still strongly present and even when someone is persecuted for it, it does nothing to the masses,

next time ill italicize my sarcasm for clarification

Edit:

Lol on the money, Definite sarcasm, both points i was saying are invalid since the idea of bitcoin in the sense of peer to peer sharing already exists through torrents and it is impossible to stop, it would only make sense for bitcoin to be as equally as hard to put an end to, I also said it would take centuries to get a law passed banning bitcoins considering it takes forever to get simple laws passed in our current form / state of govt,

bitcoin will also never be 0.00 as long as businesses operating using bitcoin as a currency are still operational only til everyone involved says bitcoin is worthless will it then be worthless,