Topic: Dont let them fool you. We will see a NEW BOTTOM. Maybe BTC at 3400$ again? - page 2. (Read 1376 times)

Unfortunately we are back at $4k now, bitcoin dump 15% today, a big dump which could result bitcoin to dump further.
Well, it seems like OP knows something here, with the rate btc is going now, its not possible to see $3400 in the next few days.

Everyone.

Declines in the coming days makes it sound like new lows but I think sure negative action but only to fill in previous movements.   It is a buy generally, harder to say over what time it will recover because it has alot more work to do.    6000 is resistance for now, definetly in a struggle to keep its short term momentum from the bottom as find 2 day average as possible ceiling.  
  So levels of interest are 6000 5500 4700 then 3850 but Im not sure we go back to the low.   I guess BTC being so volatile can quite easily test the nerves and boundaries, need the confirmation to any bottom to really rise thereafter.  OBV if I read it right and just volume generally is that we are caught within this box 6k to 4.7k so I will guess on a touch down before breaking the box either way.

    Most negative perspective would be to see 2014 to 2015 when we last slipped this 200 week and its like over year there it took to step back up and become more bullish & go anywhere.  I do remember a long lull then, lack of interest, belief, excitement and I dont relate that to now when BTC can be more used then ever, avoiding cash notes is sound advice now.

We are still on very shaky ground. We managed to close the week near the 200-week MA (not above) and that's about the only good thing to say. With that upside fake out just now, the daily and hourly charts both look terrible. This huge wick on notable volume indicates a lot of bulls just got trapped between $5,500-$6K. They will pressure the price down now:

Have to expect more declines in the coming days. But I'd never think that we don't have some room for recovery still we have but we don't know when or until crisis been over. The market mark for another huge dump as the spread of the virus becomes pandemic and it sounds like worrying enough to think of selling. Yes, it can be sort of worries and can be a normal effect because it wasn't normal anymore. But something we need to calm because it never helps to decide but rather fuel at its worse.
We are already at $5k from $4k in the past day...it was a big jump to see and have some chances to move high again. Well, this only hope (not an assurance).

I have been long since 2015 and did great.

Ok, fine, according to you I deserve to lose my money. That will happen only if Bitcoin dies, which I'm still willing to bet against. Most of my money was and still is in Bitcoin and will remain there until one day I need it for retirement. We'll see who is going to laugh last.

I can also tell you that I've been here when Bitcoin was trading for $500 and people were committing suicides over it. I still held. Some people just have to lose money to understand the true value of some things.



I'm not a trader, rather a long term investor and from my point of view all indicators are shoing that the move below 6k was driven by panic. It looked like the first move to 6k was a short liquidation wave and the next one that dipped below 4k was a panic followup by people who basically turned off thinking when they saw the first move.
Fear index at ATH, oversold RSI, no change in fundamentals. For me it's a buy opportunity all over again.

Theres always some circling overhead looking for chances to go short and pick off weak longs, but it takes progressively greater skill in order to get in and out alive with the prey in their talons.   At some point the market would rather just go long and see how far we can go in that direction.  
  Dont fight the tide, even the largest wave recedes retracts and restarts its motion again and is never exactly the same in the next instance as the last.    So I do think we are in revision here of the larger move of the last 7 days and then we begin the next weekly bar and see how far we go.



   The action fits my old chart quite well I reckon, both with trend from last summer high but also some reference even to the 2017 top there such is the vast range we tracked.  So below the 200 week average we are underneath the ice, its abnormal and we'll see how main markets and BTC react in sentiment.   Dare I say it could be considered a positively developing chart from here (if repeating), but we need time as surely the market wont agree all at once.

any reason to expect that? bitmex is a money printing machine. they have a strong interest in not exit scamming.


what is anybody gonna do about it? bitmex is registered in the seychelles and operates from HK. the USA government can't even touch them, let alone anyone else.


what thieves? if degenerates want to gamble with huge leverage on a shady exchange, who is getting hurt? i don't believe these narratives that bitmex is fundamentally bad or controls the market. that is just a different way of generally blaming "manipulators" whenever the market moves against you.

Because it's voted into existence and sustained by the degenerate gamblers. Everyone flocked to Bitfinex despite its shonkiness because that's where the action was.

There's no getting rid of it. It needs to grow out of this phase and move onwards. You can't really force that or magic up its early arrival. The best you can do is outlast it.

A Bitmex exit scam could throw the price to sub-$1000. I would guess something around $700.

But it will last few minutes, since this price is from the previous bear market recovery (2013), so people will flock in to buy.

Also, nobody is selling due to virus doomsday. Most investors who sold, were gambling in Bitmex, or were legacy investors (from hedge funds, for example) who sold to cover other asset's losses. The culprit for the escape of legacy money is the pandemic fund.

Now, I could not care less for legacy money, as they will eventually return to bitcoin when the mass vaccinations starts. But Bitmex, seriously, why the crypto sector let this thing run? I'm concerned with the sector's direction over it. Its time to get rid of the "hodlers cult" and start to be serious about bitcoin. I run a full node everyday and I would like to see it succeed. It will not succeed while the sector keep this "freedom" bullshit discourse up. We dont want freedom for thieves, we want value for holders.

Nope, I was shorting because I expected whales (yes, that people that converted BTC in ponzi) to dump, but this coronavirus is still worse. I said 8k when BTC was at 13k in summer... then 5k, 3.5k.. now I say $1000 soon. Anyone still thinking BTC is digital gold, safe haven , ... and all this bullshit propaganda, deserves to lose his money.  Do you think I am wrong? Ok, open long.. time will tell us who was right.

Exactly! If you only come to the market to short, and keep shorting against the market, you will hurt yourself. You short to go long and you go long to go short, when the trend reverses.
At this point it's a bit late to short.
If you short now, you bet on the epidemic lasting for a few more months. If you go long, you bet against it. It has to be said: you aren't trading with or against Bitcoin's trend, because what we're witnessing is not a trend, but a panic that originated from stocks, gold, oil, and all other markets.

I think we are going to shake out a lot of holders right now. There should be a few epic dead cat bounces.

The price being high is important to BTC being the utility it needs to be,

 about 1M a btc ~ 10M a btc.

This would allow you to throw in 10~100 billion at the market and not move it and so have the required liquidity to wrest control for GOV's dictating financial policy and sanction.

So I *want* a high BTC but not primarily for the USD$ amount or FIAT amount, rather for the displacement effect of the current banking system.

I never thought of this happening since the beginning of the year. It perform very well and there is halving coming up. Now, we are below $5k in our local exchange site. I'm actually surprise, didn't see it was coming. What's even worst is, we may go even lower or maybe not worst since we could finally buy at a lower price we didn't expected. The dump is really hard, it was fast.

I've got to tradingview, to try some analysis, but it seems to be impossible.

The manipulation was hard, really hard. There is a single red candle in the coinbase chart, going from 8k to 5k just today. Its a single entity dumping the coins. My guess is it dumping around 10k bitcoins, enough to make this effect in all exchanges. Maybe its something related to CSW court case, but I doubt it.

Also coinbase is leading the dump, the others are following it.

Shorting the market since January? That must have been hard for you seeing 10 thousand for so long.

I hope you weren't shorting with leverage. That would be like sex with a hedgehog

Being short always will miss the large rallys possible even in a bear market as sharp corrections are possible.    Shorts themselves are future buyers, the ideal is gain both ways and some manage that I guess.
   Any short I have is only to really hedge my longs, I dont like to close a short at a loss so I'm ok with a market move downwards and I can be bullish on a longer term time scale.   I dont see theres a real conflict as prices can move to any level for short duration, people assume its forever when it can just be a unique price on that day.  I always try to compare it to sales in a supermarket, the shelf price is the result of so many factors.   Thats a complicated way of saying many will hold and lose nothing by doing so, the people who borrowed in another currency to go long in Bitcoin are forced to dance while the market shoots bullets at their feet.   Every bit of news is amplified beyond reason, it does not mean BTC itself is in any way less useful or of less value then yesterday.

So far as a bottom price, when we lost the 50 day and 200 day so easily it was quite a big negative.   Its possible we return to the context of 200 week I suppose but I think we have other longer term measures possible and I'll reference them before deciding.   Seems we have more time to go for this upset generally, no rush.

Suppose one could look at any number of threads about price predictions, single out the ones with hyperbolic language and we'd see equal swings of either. So they look either brilliant, or downright silly. But then, we all know to take threads like these with plenty of grains of salt right?

Also, stop loss should have triggered for most. Probably a lot of buy triggers and then stop losses too along the way, but anyone with orders at 5690 would be smacking lips now.

Now the tittle of this thread doesn't sounds so stupid.. right? While most of people remained bullish I have been shorting the market. Wish you had a tight stop loss..otherwise the loss must be really huge