meh, you predict a return to the bear market of 2018 when that clearly ended over 9 months ago so price going back down to the bottom of the market is extremely unlikely. It's currently over twice that price and trajectory is upward after forming a local bottom in the high 6000s (2x the market cycle bottom).
Also you say this halving won't make the price go over $15k....umm you do realize that the bull run after THE LAST HALVING made it go to $20k right? So now you think halvings are not only going to create smaller explosive gains each time (which is reasonable and accurate) but will actually create a lower price than before! That's really where you lose any sense of logic in your argument.
Some people are so afraid that Bitcoin's future won't live up to the massive gains of the past that they come up with these silly ideas like basic supply and demand will stop working and events that are bullish will instead be bearish in this upside-down world of their imagination.
Fact is, bear market ended April 1 2019 (well technically I guess it ended Dec 2018 but the bottom ended 4/1/19). Since then, the general movements of the market have looked quite similar to the same period of time after the end of the previous bear market from 2015 - some large spikes in price with retractions, but well out of the bottom, and then stalled for half a year until the rise renewed).
Yeah the halving shouldn't be an explosive bullish event, because the crazy bull run tends to start the year after the halving do to gradual pressure from lessened supply over many months. And likely there will need to be some sort of catalyst event to actually kickstart the massive gains in this market cycle. The two prerequisites for it though seem to be the halving taking place and the market (gradually) reaching the previous ATH from the peak of the last cycle. It may hang around the old ATH for a while until some event acts as a catalyst to make the market buy up the price by a few thousand dollars, and then FOMO sets in, wave after wave, until its just too much at which point it all comes crashing down and another market cycle comes to a close. The idea that this won't happen simply cuz you're afraid of whales or whatever is silly. There have always been whales in the market.
There's no need for doom and gloom type posts like this. The market is preceding well and there is no reason to think Bitcoin won't continue on an upwards trajectory long term as always.
Topic: Dont let them fool you. We will see a NEW BOTTOM. Maybe BTC at 3400$ again? - page 6. (Read 1376 times)
January 11, 2020, 10:29:06 PM
January 11, 2020, 10:07:19 PM
yes, I agree with you op we really must always be careful and not be careless with the current increase in bitcoin. because maybe bitcoin will be a big dump before it reduces by half. but I think it will not fall to $ 3,400. according to my predictions the lowest point of bitcoin this year is $ 6000. all possibilities can occur in the cryptocurrency market, we must always observe the movements of bitcoin prices.
January 11, 2020, 05:35:09 PM
Newcomers should know what is actually happening in bitcoin halving in the past and how long it will start to take off and blast everything up to the moon. There is probably a trap in the market if people keep expecting the effect of bitcoin halving within this year. Previous halving in the past needed more months before it goes bullish.
I agree - the fact that everyone seems to think there will be a big price rise at halving is probably a good indication that it won't happen. Of course we can never be 100% certain of anything in crypto, but if there is this much anticipation of something then that usually suggests that it has already been priced in.My spidey senses tingle
I'd have that checked out.when people think it's that easy, and it could be that these newcomers are responsible for driving up the price recently. Who knows.
Possibly, yes. I was kind of hoping the price rises were a response to the US/Iran thing and that bitcoin was finally showing some signs of being considered a safe haven store of value - I'll concede perhaps more wishful thinking than anything else. 
January 11, 2020, 01:05:54 PM
If you entered the crypto space in the last 2 years, I am pretty sure you know what I am talking about.
Being a HODLER probable means right now a big bag altcoins portfolio with over a 90% loss.
I would agree that if you were to have bought bitcoin in 2017 you're still sitting on a loss, but you ought to know that whether you make a profit or not all depends on when you got in the market. If you'd bought bitcoin at the beginning of 2019? You'd have more than doubled your money--so your point is what, again?Being a HODLER probable means right now a big bag altcoins portfolio with over a 90% loss.
I have been working for an exchange the last months, and I am really worried after seeing so many newcommers bullish on BTC's halving, that enter our telegram group.
Yeah, I can believe that. I'm not exactly sure what to think of these halvenings, but I've always thought markets are way more efficient than this. If you could predictably make an enormous profit just by buying bitcoin before a halving, it would be akin to being able to print money. My spidey senses tingle when people think it's that easy, and it could be that these newcomers are responsible for driving up the price recently. Who knows. 
January 11, 2020, 12:57:59 PM
Newcomers should know what is actually happening in bitcoin halving in the past and how long it will start to take off and blast everything up to the moon. There is probably a trap in the market if people keep expecting the effect of bitcoin halving within this year. Previous halving in the past needed more months before it goes bullish.
January 11, 2020, 12:19:20 PM
Let's make sure we don't fall in trap again so we need to have a fixed target in mind for buying as well as cashing out, don't just get carried away by FOMO as 2017 and 2018 should be a learning curve for us. I don't think bitcoin will hit a new bottom value but again it might go back to $6k. Better to say active and not to invest right now as it might prove fatal but we could invest if we see a further dump before halving.
January 11, 2020, 10:57:16 AM
I have been working for an exchange the last months, and I am really worried after seeing so many newcommers bullish on BTC's halving, that enter our telegram group. Oh, by the way, if you didn't tried XXXXXXXX yet, you should take a look because there are some wellcome bonus for trading, and without the need to perform KYC.
Now, let's go to the point. Despite I can seem as a permabear, the truth is that I don't marry any coin at all.
Don't get biased or fall in love with any asset or you will suffer a huge lost. If you entered the crypto space in the last 2 years, I am pretty sure you know what I am talking about.
Being a HODLER probable means right now a big bag altcoins portfolio with over a 90% loss.
This is a fact:
A 0,53% of total BTC addresses control 86% of suppply.. a 2,73% of addresses control an 95,35% of supply.
You can check in the link, and in the following image
BTC's supply distribution
HAving all this in mind, BTC's manipulation is INSANE and OUT OF DISCUSSION. Don't let you be fooled by BTC maximalists or cyrptogurus. Doesn't matter's news, market sentiment, whatever.. whales just decide if price go up or down. That is all. retail investor don't have any trading power at all. They will move the market and make you FOMO or PANIC. So be smarter, and take care.
Now whales are makign people FOMO, but they will probably dump hard and price will sink. Around 5k-6k, the minning cost won't be affordable by minor players, so they will leave and big minning groups will get all the cake. Retail investors will also sell on panic. This will happen soon, and then they could start pumping price before halving occurs. That way, BTC whales could repurchase BTC at cheap prices, and double their profits with the halving.
Regarding halving, let me inform you taht you shoudl also believe all that bullshit about new ATHs. BTC's growth has been exponential during last decade, and this won't last forever. The charts like the following one, give you a fake impression, because it is a logarithmic scale,.. at some point growth is MUCH MUCH MUCH more difficult. I doubt next halving can make BTC's price go over 15k, and then the problem for crypto industry will really start. People will wake up and understand that this is not all magic what surrounds BTC, and it can't relaly rise exponentially forever. btc maximalists, Cryptogurus, communication media.. only think in their own benefit increasing traffic in their profile pages or platforms or shill their bags.
Halving chart
Please take care
updated
Intro message edited.. my fault. Anyone thinking I would put effort on a post to just some promotion is really paranoid. I posted the link, because I really though it is a great exchange, otherwise I wouldn't risk my reputation working for them. I have been in crypto for a long long time.. maybe I tried 80 exchanges so far, and was greatly dissapointed with the popular ones like Binance or Bitmex with their famous scam wicks, and overload errors, which had a huge loss for so many people.
BY the way.. I would never ever promote a shaddy exchange in my signature like many of you are doing. Lot of people and projects rekt already, and more will come. I received tons of complaints against Yobit in the last year (along with many many many more... Bitebtc, coinsbit, latoken... really a LOT, please conduct due dilligence before depositing your funds) while working for cmc. https://t.me/CoinMarketCap And NO, I am not promoting coinmarketcap,...
Just for your info, i have been trading since 1998 (yeah, i am a 41 years old guy) in traditional markets (forex, commodities, stocks,..) until 2011 when i shifted to crypto. Bought 100 BTC at 0,51$.. lost them in 2014 (thanks Mt Gox, reminder: not your keys, not your coins). I survived the dot.com and real state bubbles.. I traded with binary options.. SO yes, I would say I know what I am talkign about when it is about trading. Oh, by the way, I am working on a solution that will really disrupt this shitty unfair world, wehre newbies get rekt because of market sharks and whales. We deployed the algorithm trading system since 4th may and reached nearly a 1400% so far, but hey.. won't write its name, so no one claims I am a shiller. And if you think this is some kind of bullshit, you can find similar companies, like Renaissance technology that made something similar trading in traditional markets -imagine what we are achieving with crypto due so much volatility-.. from 100$ to $401million in 30 years .
Before you claim I am a fudder, you should better make some research about me. I tried to spread good words and vibe regarding crypto everywhere online and offline for the last years.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/best-advice-for-this-crash-2886374 BEST advice for this Crash
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/i-just-sold-my-girlfriends-car-to-buy-more-eth-at-sale-price-5069440 2346 views and 417 answers I just SOLD my girlfriends car to buy more ETH at sale price
a fudder will sell a car to buy crypto? yeahh, probably
Anyway, let's got to the point. The paradigm changed, I am seriously dissapointed. The Satoshi Spirit is gone, as it is said in the Bronx: "this is the jungle nigga". Social inclusion, financial freedom,.. this doesn't matters anymore, it is about money. Criptogurus and Communications media shilling (both to get more traffic and income), bitcoinmaximalists shilling hard (Novografz, McAfee...) because of their big bags..
The fact is that this is a market where 95% is in hands of a few whales, the rest has nearly 0 chances to success. I have been hearing about massiva adoption, but ar eyou kidding? Who the hell will be interested in something like this? No one! The only that were to step in, are already here. What happened with Bakkt's launch, which supposedly was about to introduce crypto to financial institutions? where is the money? during launch they reached a 700k daily traded volume. The supermarket of my hood has higher turn over. And let me tell you a secret, if financial institutions entered this crypto world , your chances of success will be then negative. We are talkign about very skilled and experienced people with high state-of-the-art tech and huge resources.. so you won't get a f**ing chance against them when it is about trading.
My vision now is that there is lower and lower interest in crypto. People is reallly deceived and upset of manipulation. Let's look back 2 months ago.. China's president, Xi, said everlasting glory to blockchain.. few whales pumped the price, averyone FOMOed.. and boom 45% up. Few days later he highlighted he was talking about BLOCKCHAIN, not crypto.. and dump from 10.5k to 6.5K. And appart from this.. so many scam wicks on a daily basis.. up,down, up, down, liquidating everyone who has a leveraged position. 0 organic move! How would you call a coin that pumps 3k and dumps 4k?a pump and dump coin?
Anyone thinking halving will be great, and we will get new ATH's had just his brain washed by the BTC maximalisms.
Laugh and cal me fudder while you still can. But hey, dont worry, .. it will take only 5 months to see who was right and wrong... and then the one who failed with his claims, should come to this topic and say "yeah i didn't knew a fuck and was absolutely wrong!" Just the same way that happened half year ago, when I relaized there is less and less interest in crypto, and started shorting since 13k... people laughed.. then 12k.. still laughs.. 11k 10k 9k 8k 7k...mm... don't hear much laughs anymore. And I am warning you, the bottom is still far away. I though 5K before.. now I will bet for last low at 3.4k.
My real concern is about the newbies, who don't know they are newbies.. them who entered in the last 2-3 years, and think they are already cryptogurus and pro-traders. Believing this halving miracle, without realizing the implications of an logarithmic chart.. Too many people will get rekt,..
And quoting Satoshi "If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry".. mean sorry for your loss
Now, let's go to the point. Despite I can seem as a permabear, the truth is that I don't marry any coin at all.
Don't get biased or fall in love with any asset or you will suffer a huge lost. If you entered the crypto space in the last 2 years, I am pretty sure you know what I am talking about.
Being a HODLER probable means right now a big bag altcoins portfolio with over a 90% loss.
This is a fact:
A 0,53% of total BTC addresses control 86% of suppply.. a 2,73% of addresses control an 95,35% of supply.
You can check in the link, and in the following image
BTC's supply distribution
HAving all this in mind, BTC's manipulation is INSANE and OUT OF DISCUSSION. Don't let you be fooled by BTC maximalists or cyrptogurus. Doesn't matter's news, market sentiment, whatever.. whales just decide if price go up or down. That is all. retail investor don't have any trading power at all. They will move the market and make you FOMO or PANIC. So be smarter, and take care.
Now whales are makign people FOMO, but they will probably dump hard and price will sink. Around 5k-6k, the minning cost won't be affordable by minor players, so they will leave and big minning groups will get all the cake. Retail investors will also sell on panic. This will happen soon, and then they could start pumping price before halving occurs. That way, BTC whales could repurchase BTC at cheap prices, and double their profits with the halving.
Regarding halving, let me inform you taht you shoudl also believe all that bullshit about new ATHs. BTC's growth has been exponential during last decade, and this won't last forever. The charts like the following one, give you a fake impression, because it is a logarithmic scale,.. at some point growth is MUCH MUCH MUCH more difficult. I doubt next halving can make BTC's price go over 15k, and then the problem for crypto industry will really start. People will wake up and understand that this is not all magic what surrounds BTC, and it can't relaly rise exponentially forever. btc maximalists, Cryptogurus, communication media.. only think in their own benefit increasing traffic in their profile pages or platforms or shill their bags.
Halving chart
Please take care
updated
Intro message edited.. my fault. Anyone thinking I would put effort on a post to just some promotion is really paranoid. I posted the link, because I really though it is a great exchange, otherwise I wouldn't risk my reputation working for them. I have been in crypto for a long long time.. maybe I tried 80 exchanges so far, and was greatly dissapointed with the popular ones like Binance or Bitmex with their famous scam wicks, and overload errors, which had a huge loss for so many people.
BY the way.. I would never ever promote a shaddy exchange in my signature like many of you are doing. Lot of people and projects rekt already, and more will come. I received tons of complaints against Yobit in the last year (along with many many many more... Bitebtc, coinsbit, latoken... really a LOT, please conduct due dilligence before depositing your funds) while working for cmc. https://t.me/CoinMarketCap And NO, I am not promoting coinmarketcap,...
Just for your info, i have been trading since 1998 (yeah, i am a 41 years old guy) in traditional markets (forex, commodities, stocks,..) until 2011 when i shifted to crypto. Bought 100 BTC at 0,51$.. lost them in 2014 (thanks Mt Gox, reminder: not your keys, not your coins). I survived the dot.com and real state bubbles.. I traded with binary options.. SO yes, I would say I know what I am talkign about when it is about trading. Oh, by the way, I am working on a solution that will really disrupt this shitty unfair world, wehre newbies get rekt because of market sharks and whales. We deployed the algorithm trading system since 4th may and reached nearly a 1400% so far, but hey.. won't write its name, so no one claims I am a shiller. And if you think this is some kind of bullshit, you can find similar companies, like Renaissance technology that made something similar trading in traditional markets -imagine what we are achieving with crypto due so much volatility-.. from 100$ to $401million in 30 years .
Before you claim I am a fudder, you should better make some research about me. I tried to spread good words and vibe regarding crypto everywhere online and offline for the last years.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/best-advice-for-this-crash-2886374 BEST advice for this Crash
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/i-just-sold-my-girlfriends-car-to-buy-more-eth-at-sale-price-5069440 2346 views and 417 answers I just SOLD my girlfriends car to buy more ETH at sale price
a fudder will sell a car to buy crypto? yeahh, probably
Anyway, let's got to the point. The paradigm changed, I am seriously dissapointed. The Satoshi Spirit is gone, as it is said in the Bronx: "this is the jungle nigga". Social inclusion, financial freedom,.. this doesn't matters anymore, it is about money. Criptogurus and Communications media shilling (both to get more traffic and income), bitcoinmaximalists shilling hard (Novografz, McAfee...) because of their big bags..
The fact is that this is a market where 95% is in hands of a few whales, the rest has nearly 0 chances to success. I have been hearing about massiva adoption, but ar eyou kidding? Who the hell will be interested in something like this? No one! The only that were to step in, are already here. What happened with Bakkt's launch, which supposedly was about to introduce crypto to financial institutions? where is the money? during launch they reached a 700k daily traded volume. The supermarket of my hood has higher turn over. And let me tell you a secret, if financial institutions entered this crypto world , your chances of success will be then negative. We are talkign about very skilled and experienced people with high state-of-the-art tech and huge resources.. so you won't get a f**ing chance against them when it is about trading.
My vision now is that there is lower and lower interest in crypto. People is reallly deceived and upset of manipulation. Let's look back 2 months ago.. China's president, Xi, said everlasting glory to blockchain.. few whales pumped the price, averyone FOMOed.. and boom 45% up. Few days later he highlighted he was talking about BLOCKCHAIN, not crypto.. and dump from 10.5k to 6.5K. And appart from this.. so many scam wicks on a daily basis.. up,down, up, down, liquidating everyone who has a leveraged position. 0 organic move! How would you call a coin that pumps 3k and dumps 4k?a pump and dump coin?
Anyone thinking halving will be great, and we will get new ATH's had just his brain washed by the BTC maximalisms.
Laugh and cal me fudder while you still can. But hey, dont worry, .. it will take only 5 months to see who was right and wrong... and then the one who failed with his claims, should come to this topic and say "yeah i didn't knew a fuck and was absolutely wrong!" Just the same way that happened half year ago, when I relaized there is less and less interest in crypto, and started shorting since 13k... people laughed.. then 12k.. still laughs.. 11k 10k 9k 8k 7k...mm... don't hear much laughs anymore. And I am warning you, the bottom is still far away. I though 5K before.. now I will bet for last low at 3.4k.
My real concern is about the newbies, who don't know they are newbies.. them who entered in the last 2-3 years, and think they are already cryptogurus and pro-traders. Believing this halving miracle, without realizing the implications of an logarithmic chart.. Too many people will get rekt,..
And quoting Satoshi "If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry".. mean sorry for your loss
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