Topic: Don't Panic Yet, Bitcoin Analysis. (Read 472 times)

The internal count seems invalid to me. Maybe this can be overlooked. It's not worth arguing over. Time will tell, but I prefer a count that better accounts for the price action in 2012:




Cool, I wasn't sure from the wording.


Yes I see that too, and the bearish pre-market open on stocks supports that idea: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54077735

Measured move target is in the low $5,100s but as we know, BTC's lack of liquidity often takes the market beyond typical levels. I plan to close shorts there and then wait for an obvious bottom before buying back on spot.

If there is enough panic in the world markets, we could have another March 12th event that takes us below $3K. I'm still trying to be contrarian since everyone is expecting the worst, but things are admittedly looking pretty grim.

This does not validate the count, looking at it on the monthly chart, the only thing that is not perfect is the length of wave 2 in wave 3, regardless of how you try to count it, as I said it is not a perfect wave but the wave still meets all rules of a correct Eliot wave.


Yup, that is exactly what I just said, without using the levels.


Agreed but I still think we have a long way to go for panic to stop, that we had so far is merely the pandemic effect, the global economy was going to collapse either way this will only speed things up.

Short term look at BTC, I see us going to $5100, and then $4600, was not planning to take such a trade, but I can't stop my itchy hands. 

You see how the Wave 3 has 7 swings? There should only be 5, or 9 if one of the sub-waves was extended.


You know how in January 2015 we went to $150 but in August 2015 the market stopped at $200? That's what I mean about no double bottom. I think the $3,850 low may be our January 2015.


It's not about whether the pandemic will get worse. Of course it will. It's about when the resulting economic contraction gets priced in and the panic stops because the outlook has been normalized.

There's no real way to quantify whether the stock market should fall 30% or 60% or whatever else. At this point, it's less about fundamentals and more about sentiment. If/when the West turns a corner like China, there will be a solid market recovery, even if we know infections will continue to rise in the coming months.

In my view, the BTC price will only 'stabilize' at whatever price that may be when the US Stock Market finally dumps to around 1/2 of its previous value before
this Pandemic crisis. At that point, IMHO, people will go 'what the hell' and simply have to HODL and bet on Capitalism and the economy recovering. To think
anything else right or wrong will be beyond their conception....thus that will be the HODL point for fiat. Of course a few more trillion $$ will be tossed in the
pot to stabilize this at that 1/2 way loss point. But this is how I see this all playing out as BTC worth via Fiat worth.
When/If above happens, then IMHO, BTC will start to act as a store of value...even if only sideways from whatever price it is when the above happens.

all the panic that we had over that past week has only postponed the big rallies of 2020 that are inevitable. like always the panic was only a short lived one while the weak hands made it bigger than it could have been predicted.
you don't need to be an "analyst" to see the potential of bitcoin and the way it has been growing in adoption this past 2 months in multiple countries around the world as they officially accepted it as a legal currency.

There are no invalidations in Wave 3, I agree that the wave is not perfect, especially the way "they" count (ii) in the said wave but as far as structures are concerned, nothing really invalidates the wave count, if you see any invalidations, please point them out, I am far from an expert with EW.


It does make sense.


Speaking of large time frames (weekly and monthly) the only previous similar situation we had with double bottom formation was the 2015 capitulation period, that was not a perfect double-bottom but we had a wick go below the body of the previous candle, which in hour case should have been the $3600 level, but we did dip to as low as $3700 on some exchanges, so you are right, as far as double-bottom this could be it.


I wish I had half the optimism you got because I think we are not even halfway to misery as far as the global economy is cornered, today alone the U.S had over 5000 new Corona cases, the same number in Italy, sadly Italy lost 627 people today to the virus, and if you look at the Coronavirus chart you can easily see an uptrend of nearly 90 degrees, I know for certain that China was the best country to handle the virus, and I can only assume that things will be worse everywhere else, no vaccine seems to be coming next week, our bodies don't seem to be developing any new method to fight the virus, I don't want to spread fear, but things don't look promising at all, sadly.  

As far as TA is concerned, I am keeping a close eye on everything, the monthly candle has a lot to tell as well, I will take any close above 6.4k as a good sign on the monthly timeframe, and weekly close above 200MA is as good, a weekly close above 20MA and I will become bullish, close above 10.5k and a retest, I will be super bullish, but I think all of that is wishful thinking because the most likely scenario, for now IMO is this > 6.1k-6.4k is major resistance and we are unlikely going to break it, we head back to make a lower low below 3.1k, everyone and their grandmother loses hope in bitcoin, range between 2k and 4k for a few months, and then start a new bull cycle.

I will not be trading based on that scenario, that's a very large picture, I am sticking to the short/midterm in my trading, but it's a scenario that worth to be highly considered and prepared for, what we have now is everyone thinking the halving will change everything and take us to new ATH, everyone thinks making money is easy, buy bitcoin before the halving, become rich after the halving, but we know that markets don't work this way, it needs to eliminate those people first and thus, the scenario above is not any less likely to happen than any other scenario.

Let's watch the 200MA and the weekly candle's close in 2 days.

It doesn't take a genius to realize that there are resistance levels and there are support levels and you can see where the biggest support levels are and you can act accordingly. If you are a whale and you want to buy cheap what could you do to make sure the price goes down so that you can buy a lot of bitcoins for cheap but you do not go down too much that everyone else starts buying as well? You check the support levels. The $3k or $3.2k to be more precise is a support level where everyone and their mother would buy bitcoin at that price.

So, what makes sense for a whale to buy cheaper? They could make it $3.5k and then let it go up while buying as much as they can, if they do this multiple times they will have shit ton of bitcoin while others are still waiting for the support level.

That may be debatable. The internals of Wave 3 are questionable, which is why I've always rejected that count.


That ABC is now Masterluc's preferred count. He has abandoned the triangle and is looking for the $1,800-$2,400 range.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qNy2lBH5-Bearish-outcome-of-previous-ideas/

I see it as plausible but not the highest probability outcome. I also agree with Masterluc that it's part of Historical Wave IV, not a bearish supercycle yet.


I expect to see the $5,000s and probably the $4,000s again. I do think the lower levels will be retested, but I also think the ultimate low is probably in. V-bottoms are rarely retested, especially in BTC. I doubt we can reach that level of panic again.

That could change if global markets enter another panic and this morphs into a 2008 crisis. For now, as crazy as it sounds, I still think markets are in the beginning of a stabilization period, on the cusp of a relief rally like the post-Black Monday rally in late October and early November 1987.

A few months ago I saw an Eliot Wave count-based analysis ( I forgot where) where the count is something as follows.



Technically the count is correct, and the only concern is the  ABC correction, we failed to rally to 20k so we are unlikely going to have a flat ABC correction where the bottom is of wave C is the start of Wave B, therefore, a zig-zag formation is most likely, which means wave C has to be lower than wave A (3.2k), assuming wave C has the same length as wave A or 83% drop form 13.8k, the proper end for wave C is just about 2.3-2.5k.

Ignoring the ABC correction, I would still want to see a double bottom, I am really not conviced that we have actually bottomed out, we are still way too far from the 20SMA on the weekly, worldwide fundamentals are not encouraging yet.

Real money is made during bear market, remember BTC went from $6000 to $20000 in just 1month in 2017. Invest when others don't, then sit back, relax & sell when everyone starts Investing again. This is my new strategy to make money in crypto market get ready to be greedy guys but sure , you should keep waiting for bullish confirmation.

People who have predicted the price of Bitcoin are completely silent because nobody didn't expect such a huge downfall about the price of Bitcoin. Still, there is no complete clarity whether how long this downturn will continue because the virus still spreading to a lot of countries. This may lead to more panic about the prices.

after more than a week we are now looking for good bounce back as the market today seems to be recovering?
i am not a bearish but not also bullish.all i want is to be fair and truthful as there are too much expectation from the FUDders and the Bullish but yet market is just going normal so why bother thinking much when we can just wait and let the investors come to make the growth much even better.
but today is a great day even this is friday that mostly the value is falling and increasing by Monday.

Many analysis came with optimist and calculation but so far I think is fundamental problem, in this part human psychology take big space. Corona takes our economy and someone who connected with currency is really smart, just like put fresh fish front of cat. Panic is normal condition but how we can manage risk is really important than complaint. I believe cut loss is more effective than hold, let is go so we can start new journey.

Thanks for pointing that out.

It's difficult to time the candle closes. In the short term, the market could top anywhere from here to the lower $7,000s and then come back to retest the 200-week MA area or below. Whether we officially close the candle above or below it (to match the fractal) probably doesn't matter. Either way, I think the fractal is a good general guide for how a bullish recovery could play out over the next several weeks.

Fingers crossed. It'll take a few more weeks for the dust to settle and see where we stand. For now, this idea is still in play:

If you are into fractals, you may find this interesting.




if you zoom into the weekly chart on BLX on exactly 17-aug-2015 you can see a very similar structure to the current chart, a weekly candle close "slightly" below the 200MA followed by a bullish hammer-like candle that failed to close above the 200MA but had wick go through it, next week candle closed above the 200MA but below the 20MA, consolidation period of 6 weeks, and then rally, let's see if you repeat the fractal by closing this week below 5.5k.

Bulls have just retaken the 200-week MA. Will the market hold above it? I'm very curious to see how the weekly candle closes in 3 days, 5 hours. This could be a very pivotal moment for BTC!

We closed the $5534 position but there still rallying until 5.7k pricr of btc, I do hope to continue the pump until 6.4k level but its getting hard time to break at 5.8k. I do hope we cant see those level on your current position. I am currently at holding stage, until I see a good break out, before releasing some btc on krakens tummy. And set a position on 3k level, particularly. In your opinion? Would it be the case in the coming two to three weeks?

Here is an update on the weekly chart



We did close BELOW the 200MA on the weekly, the weekly candle, however, has a very long wick (over third of the candle size), the candle itself suggest a reversal and shows a lot of buy pressure, the 4000-5000 area is a bull land, for now, it will be hard to go below it, the problem, however, is that now the 200MA on the weekly has become a strong resistance, the $5534 level will be extremely hard for the bulls to break.

At this point, I have no intention to take any short positions, and I will only buy if we manage to close above $5534 or if we go below $3000, in fact, I already have some long positions from $2400$ to $3000 which may never get filled anyway, but if we don't close above 200MA soon enough, I won't surprised to see those levels in the coming weeks.

People are really shocked after this huge downfall happened in crypto sphere, Even those who predicted huge prices are in silent mode now. Every one are desperately waiting for Halving now and I am very much pleased to see some positive pump in this and I hope the market will improve in someday.

The bottomline is, no.matter how huge the decline in its market value, it will have a price increase in the future as long as the demand is also increasing simply because demand will determine the price of cryptos or anything in the market. The only thing an investor should do is to wait, because no once could predict with certainty when would exactly recovery occur, one could only assume and speculate but we cannot really predict such thing due to the nature of market volatility. It would be normal to worry everytime the market value is falling, but avoid making decisions due to panic, because regret is the only thing that would be acquired.

Just keep in mind how many times, downfall came to this industry. Although recovery at some points are not that big, slight uptrend is enough to keep our hopes up. Ofcourse we cannot force those who would panic selling to not do such thing, so just take advantage of the market price decline and invest, because profit will be earned in the future. No matter how long it would take, just wait, because that would be worthy of your time.