Topic: Don't Panic Yet, Bitcoin Analysis. - page 3. (Read 472 times)

MA200 was already broken couple hours ago. Coinbase shows 3867 as the lowest value. 

Seeing a long red candle like that is terrible, but to trace I do not need to experience panic.
Is not it in 2018 when bitcoin reached ATH then a few months later reached its lowest price of 3100 $ + we still buy it.

Today the price of Bitcoin has reached the MA200 as a long-term decline goal, here I am sure that the MA200 will not break, but there must be a reflection of the price in this MA200.
So keep waiting and see.

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CHART NOW:
$4,900 already broken. Almost 50% lost within 24hours. Very bad for Bitcoin.
Again, if we zoom out and identify the horizontal supports, for me, our next stop if incase we will still go down is the lowest price after we reach $19,000 last 2017-2018 which are around $3,200+.
Jeez, this is really devastating.
To avoid panic; avoid observing the chart for these days. Panic sellers are everywhere. This is also good for everyone (like me) who want to buy again at a lower price.

Yes, I'm sure everyone was caught by surprised seeing the market goes down hard including bitcoin -20%-25% in just matter of days.

Comparing it though to the prior halving in 2016, we didn't have this kind of worst case scenario. Back then it was just fud and speculation that fuel the market down before the halving. But this time, it's very different, we have the corona virus to take into consideration and we have seen the effects already. So if we are going to go the next bubble after this year's block halving, I'm guessing it could be 2021-2022.

I believe a bull market will only kick in 2022, that is, two years after the halving.

FA got busted, and the StF ratio (which was the pillar of the hodler's creed) was manipulated and pushed ahead, which invalidated the 4-year cycle model. So we will see these swings for quite some time yet, going from 5k to 15k and back.

I think there will definitely be a bull market after the halvening, maybe it will start after 0.5-1 years after that date or even later, but I'm sure we'll see a new ATH, but I doubt it will be the $100,000 promised by perma-bulls, my guess is that it will be $30,000-40,000 or in my most optimistic scenario it will be $60,000. And as for the near future, we'll likely see the same thing that happened recently - longer period of stagnation, then a few bullish weak until we meet resistance and fail to overcome it. Seems like this is becoming a new Bitcoin trend.

It has been a while since I posted any analysis on the forum, probably a good time now.

Today's drop was tragic and probably took many people by surprise, I personally did not see that coming, but I always like to plan ahead of time and be prepared for all possible scenarios.




The chart above contains the two most important moving averages on the weekly chart of btc/usd, the 20 and the 200 moving averages, clear as day when price closes below the 20MA (blue) we enter a down a trend and quite often head to the 200 MA ( purple ), currently the weekly 200 MA is at $5524, by no means bitcoin should close below that, because if it does then IMO it will very likely print a lower-low below $3000.

Selling now at these prices is a dumb move because chances are the 200MA will hold as it always did for 6 years now, but bouncing back of the 200MA which is very likely is not a clear sign of a bull market unless a weekly candle closes above the 20MA we are still bearish.
 
I highly doubt any considerable rebound prior to the halving, maybe going back to the 7.5 - 8k range and that's it, the reason I think so is not the coronavirus but rather the market rules and structure, it's normal for the majority of people to lose money, bitcoin is no difference, now everybody is expecting to get rich because the price is supposedly going to the moon right after the halving but that IMO will not happen this time.

You might argue that it happened every other previous halving, that's true and there is no denial in that, but you and almost everyone else did not see that coming, back in 2016 there were probably only a handful of people thinking that the halving was going to cause price increase, while the majority thought bitcoin was going to die, nobody expected the 20k and so it happened, now everyone is expecting it, it simply not going to happen because no market will allow the average Joe to make money this easily.

I hope I have not created any more fud/panic, it's to my best interest that BTC price goes to $100,000 next week, but after being wrong so many times, i have to live with the fact that I am not special, I don't control the market and I have to always be ready for the worse.

TL;DR
-a Weekly close above 200SMA with a long wick(very good news) > a correction to the upside is most likely.
-a weekly close above 200SMA with no wick(Good news) > sideways market before a major correction or another potential dip.
-a Weekly close below 200SMA (Terrible News) > Most likely heading towards 3k again.

The scenario that has the highest probability of happening IMO would be the second one, we are likely to close the week above the 200SMA, go into a sideway action for a few weeks.


I would love to hear other trader's opinions, permabulls and permabears are not welcome.