Don't Panic Yet, Bitcoin Analysis. - page 2.

Reid

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Thank you.

I don't understand much of the graph but as long as it looks like a dragon that is going to the sky again then I am happy with it. Grin

I'd pick the 2nd choice because the 3rd looks terrible to me.
3k once again? No way! I don't want to see that number again.

Is this like a pre-halving sickness? Grin

mikeywith

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Quote from: adzino on March 13, 2020, 05:59:22 PM

Yeah, the halving is the only reason the price hasn't crashed even deeper.

I don't really understand where does this theory come from, or what is it actually built on.

Let's run some numbers:

We currently have 18,267,225 BTC, when the halving comes there will be 18,375,000, and so we already have 87.5% of the max total supply, the four years period that will follow the coming halving will add exactly 1,312,500 to the supply, so in other words, instead of adding 2,625,000 BTC from 2020 to 2024 you cut half of that (1,312,500).

Now taking the 1,312,500 as a % it only makes 7.14% of the total "to be" supply by May 2020, that is a very small percentage, too small to make the impact that many people expect it to make, if someone doesn't understand the numbers % wise, think about having a $100 and you spend $7.14.

I kindly want you or anyone else for that matter to explain to me how does a 7.14% supply reduction causes prices to increase 100% or 500% as many people think/say.

Oasisman

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Quote from: Yamifoud on March 13, 2020, 05:04:41 PM

The hardest thing now is how to control the possible panic selling. Weak hands will surely do it first and the other will follow seeing the market continue to fall.

There's not only panic selling in crypto space today, but with panic buying in the market as well. Sure, weakhands have 2 reasons why they are selling in this situation we're in right now. First, because the market just lost $64B in just 24hrs, causing Bitcoin to lose almost 40% from its last position. Second, because of the pandemic. People would prefer fiat over any cryptos during the times like this. The WHO declared covid-19 as pandemic, so with the number of people infected everyday, there might be a possible wide community quarantine or worst a city lock down.
What other investors failed to realize, is when the market and economic crisis recovers, huge profit for sure will come to those who take advantage of the opportunity to buy during the market is down.

adzino

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Quote from: fiulpro on March 13, 2020, 02:59:50 PM

The thing is , we haven't yet reached the Halving and sooner or later the price is going to climb up really fast and panic selling would only make things worse for you , you will loose money and at the same time you will feel real bad when you see the price climb up.
The good thing is things will pass , you just got to have patience and stop looking at the price of bitcoins time and again .
This just makes situations worse.
Just calm down and hold for long time.

Yeah, the halving is the only reason the price hasn't crashed even deeper. There are people out there that believes that the halving will eventually cause the price to rise and might also even help to achieve a new all time high. But the worse part would be when people see the price not rising even after the halving. The dumping of the price would be real bad then. People would end up dumping their investment out of frustration. So let us just hope nothing like this happens after the halving.

Yamifoud

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Quote from: mikeywith on March 12, 2020, 06:03:22 PM

It has been a while since I posted any analysis on the forum, probably a good time now.

Today's drop was tragic and probably took many people by surprise, I personally did not see that coming, but I always like to plan ahead of time and be prepared for all possible scenarios.

It is really surprising and even me I'd never think that it goes like this as we are expecting more positive because of halving that soon to have. It is really a strategic event that causes huge changes in the global market. It for sure people aren't prepared for this and that it seems to be normal that there are a massive crypto withdrawal and conversion. The hardest thing now is how to control the possible panic selling. Weak hands will surely do it first and the other will follow seeing the market continue to fall.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: mikeywith on March 13, 2020, 04:00:37 PM

Quote from: fabiorem on March 13, 2020, 01:26:04 PM

Dead cat bounce, bitcoin is going back to $3k. Small traders are selling now.
Its not panic, people want to buy cheaper after Peter Brandt prediction.

Prices don't usually go to where the average joe has placed their orders, and now that most people are expecting an exact 3k or 3.2k as it is the only major support below the 200MA, chances are we will not dip to that level again, and if so happens then we will also more likely go lower.

it's a classic phenomenon: the crowd waits for $3k, price comes sorta close but reverses hard before getting there, then they are all left waiting and coinless. this is what happened at the end of the 2015 bear market.

the "manipulators" if they exist are betting on this. they know all those people will end up buying their bags at $6k, $8k, etc instead of buying low at $3k. or like you said, the market will run straight through $3k (like it did to $6k last year) and punish all those people trading the "obvious" support level.

markets can be such a mindfuck!

mikeywith

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Quote from: fabiorem on March 13, 2020, 01:26:04 PM

Dead cat bounce, bitcoin is going back to $3k. Small traders are selling now.
Its not panic, people want to buy cheaper after Peter Brandt prediction.

Prices don't usually go to where the average joe has placed their orders, and now that most people are expecting an exact 3k or 3.2k as it is the only major support below the 200MA, chances are we will not dip to that level again, and if so happens then we will also more likely go lower. In general you don't really want to except bitcoin at popular prices like 3k,1k not even 20k.

fabiorem

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Quote from: jadenunderhill on March 13, 2020, 02:02:43 PM

Quote from: fabiorem on March 13, 2020, 01:26:04 PM

Dead cat bounce, bitcoin is going back to $3k. Small traders are selling now.
Its not panic, people want to buy cheaper after Peter Brandt prediction.

Not sure that even 3K will be a final stop this time.

I would be cautious with any shorting. Governments are printing money to cover the crashes and this might reach bitcoin sooner or later.

exstasie

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Quote from: fabiorem on March 13, 2020, 01:26:04 PM

Dead cat bounce, bitcoin is going back to $3k. Small traders are selling now.
Its not panic, people want to buy cheaper after Peter Brandt prediction.

Link? Peter Brandt is known for selling his followers down the river. Wink

This is what I was getting at in my discussion of "what kind of bear market is this?" You assume it means lower lows and endless carnage, $3K and beyond. There is a distinct possibility we are in a long term sideways formation. I think you are ignoring that and have been for a very long time.

Watching the market reach $3,850 then V-bottom, and still expecting $3K.......I suspect that prediction will not age well, but let's wait and see how the weekly candle closes in relation to the 200-week MA. Bulls are not out of the woods yet.

fiulpro

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The thing is , we haven't yet reached the Halving and sooner or later the price is going to climb up really fast and panic selling would only make things worse for you , you will loose money and at the same time you will feel real bad when you see the price climb up.
The good thing is things will pass , you just got to have patience and stop looking at the price of bitcoins time and again .
This just makes situations worse.
Just calm down and hold for long time.

jadenunderhill

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Activity: 293

Merit: 109

Quote from: fabiorem on March 13, 2020, 01:26:04 PM

Dead cat bounce, bitcoin is going back to $3k. Small traders are selling now.
Its not panic, people want to buy cheaper after Peter Brandt prediction.

Not sure that even 3K will be a final stop this time.

fabiorem

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Dead cat bounce, bitcoin is going back to $3k. Small traders are selling now.
Its not panic, people want to buy cheaper after Peter Brandt prediction.

tbterryboy

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I doubt that we can call it a weekly before week ends. However, the fact is price actually moved towards a place where we were half expecting it to go down if things get sour. The trouble here is the fact that there was a huge sale, that means it might be nothing related to analysis or nothing related to charts and ma200 or anything at all. It could be simply just a rich dude selling a lot of bitcoins they had to buy more stocks just as when it dropped.

Remember not everything in crypto is actually calculated moves, some of them just happens out of nowhere and shocks the whole world. Maybe that is one of the reasons why it moved all the way down to 3600 but moved back up, it wasn't a predicted move but nobody really thought the price would stay there all the time and bought it right away.

jadenunderhill

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Quote from: AakZaki on March 13, 2020, 05:05:25 AM

Quote from: jadenunderhill on March 12, 2020, 11:01:02 PM

MA200 was already broken couple hours ago. Coinbase shows 3867 as the lowest value.

In my opinion it's not part of the MA200 broken, it just touched and slightly fell past the MA200. If you want to say the MA200 is broken you need to see the candle next week, if it continues to be passed and the price continues to fall then you say the MA200 is broken.

Some of my analysis on the MA200 is part of the barrier, I myself am not sure if it continues to be bypassed.

Hope U are right. But I'm not so optimistic( Even if it will stand for now, there will be few months of world financial crysis with bearish markets everywhere.

AakZaki

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Quote from: jadenunderhill on March 12, 2020, 11:01:02 PM

MA200 was already broken couple hours ago. Coinbase shows 3867 as the lowest value.

In my opinion it's not part of the MA200 broken, it just touched and slightly fell past the MA200. If you want to say the MA200 is broken you need to see the candle next week, if it continues to be passed and the price continues to fall then you say the MA200 is broken.

Some of my analysis on the MA200 is part of the barrier, I myself am not sure if it continues to be bypassed.

exstasie

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Quote from: jadenunderhill on March 12, 2020, 11:01:02 PM

MA200 was already broken couple hours ago. Coinbase shows 3867 as the lowest value.

Bulls broke back above it just now. We might have to chop above and below it a few times before the market confirms it as support for good.

The prospects for a full on V-bottom look decent. We saw insanely high volume exchanged. Capitulation occurred for sure and shorts piled on massively. We just need bulls to follow through now and trap sellers below $6K.

Based on volume and magnitude, this selloff looks like the January 2015 capitulation. A true old school BTC capitulation. I hope nobody around here managed to sell in the $3,000s. Cheesy

mikeywith

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Quote from: jadenunderhill on March 12, 2020, 11:01:02 PM

MA200 was already broken couple hours ago. Coinbase shows 3867 as the lowest value.

This is is not how it works, you can't take a moving average on the weekly time frame and say it was broken because a candle on the 4 or 1 hour chart closed below it, we need to wait until sunday for the weekly candle to close, the rest is just noise.

Free1bitco.in

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the current price has been a low price since 2020. Well, this makes people surprised and panicked because, in just a few days, the price of bitcoin reached its lowest point. honestly, I am not so panicked about this, because I still believe that prices will recover due to encouragement from halving. but, I might be a little pessimistic about the price of bitcoin which will recover this year. Well, I agree with the statement above that it is likely that the price of bitcoin will recover in 2021-2022. especially when the covid-19 virus is finished.

jadenunderhill

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Quote from: bgaf on March 12, 2020, 11:17:19 PM

Quote from: fabiorem on March 12, 2020, 07:37:49 PM

I believe a bull market will only kick in 2022, that is, two years after the halving.

FA got busted, and the StF ratio (which was the pillar of the hodler's creed) was manipulated and pushed ahead, which invalidated the 4-year cycle model. So we will see these swings for quite some time yet, going from 5k to 15k and back.

Two years isnt enough I guess for a huge break down. TA will probably useless for now, as the market swing is quite fast and its support has been modified continously. I am not so experience but seeing a pattern like this, is remembering the 2018 cycle.

Quote from: jadenunderhill on March 12, 2020, 11:01:02 PM

MA200 was already broken couple hours ago. Coinbase shows 3867 as the lowest value.

Right now at 5k again, 30mins passed and still kicking some huge pushed. Thinking of some whales started to move again.

Or it is the dead cat bounce and a final capitulation is about to start..

bgaf

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Quote from: fabiorem on March 12, 2020, 07:37:49 PM

I believe a bull market will only kick in 2022, that is, two years after the halving.

FA got busted, and the StF ratio (which was the pillar of the hodler's creed) was manipulated and pushed ahead, which invalidated the 4-year cycle model. So we will see these swings for quite some time yet, going from 5k to 15k and back.

Two years isnt enough I guess for a huge break down. TA will probably useless for now, as the market swing is quite fast and its support has been modified continously. I am not so experience but seeing a pattern like this, is remembering the 2018 cycle.

Quote from: jadenunderhill on March 12, 2020, 11:01:02 PM

MA200 was already broken couple hours ago. Coinbase shows 3867 as the lowest value.

Right now at 5k again, 30mins passed and still kicking some huge pushed. Thinking of some whales started to move again.

Topic: Don't Panic Yet, Bitcoin Analysis. - page 2. (Read 472 times)