Just my two cents:
Check who bookies and experts call as favourite. I have noticed, since all the songs and performances are already seen, those who say "Country X will win", 99,99% are correct. Even viewers votes cant impact on the results.
Second - I have a strong feeling, that this year Ukraine will take a first place. I believe that everyone in solidarity will give 12 points to Ukraine. Eurovision was always a politicized event, this time it will definitely be proved.
Same thing happens with Oscars and the beauty peagents as well. These are subjective terms, there is no clear winner, it is not like soccer games where you know who won because they scored, this is what judges give points to (or in this case we are talking about nations) and that is all we care about, nothing more.
So, how do we know who will win? We are literally trying to guess who the people will vote for, it's SMS sending right? I am not so sure, so we are trying to guess who people will vote for here, and that's just not possible. Hence why relying on oddmakers just like Oscars and beauty peagents, would work in this one as well, at least it should, but could be wrong as well like how everyone said belfast would win but CODA won.