Topic: Early adoption stage - page 3. (Read 5389 times)

we will be looking back at this time and wishing we were buying $600 btc hand over fist....

Pessimist 

Well what's the difference with paper fiat? Btw all fiat is already rotting due to inflation.
BTC wallets require maintenance so HODL doesn't mean you don't reprint your paper wallet or put your data on new thumb drives.

uhh,  and i thought is was other way around:




 

People who think Bitcoin is nearly maxed out at $8 billion market share are either bad at economics, math, history, or all of them.  

Well we are at mining stage. I wouldn't use financial terminology for it since it is impossible to compare bitcoin to anything else (even though many people think it is ponzi, securities, traditional currency)

Considering that bitcoin is all but unusable, the mind boggles to consider what the value will be once it is easy to use for any fit purpose.

+1 it's still very much early days, like 1997 for  the internet. If we take that standard adoption curve, less than 0.1% of people have bitcoins, so we are completely at the start. One of the things which interests me is how bitcoin solves counterparty risk problems in international banking. I think it's likely that bitcoin will be used for early experiments that try to solve this before being replaced by something more mature a few years later. I also think that it will replace a lot of online credit card transactions and offshore banking shenanigans.

That said, a vaguely stable price, or a mature futures and options market (which will lead to that), needs to be in place before all of that starts to happen. A the moment people are slowly realising what cryptocurrencies are and what they might lead to. The strange thing is you get to own a percentage of the future global money supply now, before most people realise that's what it is. Maybe bitcoin falls apart before then, but cryptocurrencies are here to stay. If MtGox is anything to go by, there will be plently of warning before bitcoin is replaced, if one is paying attention.

Saying that people losing coins at exchanges or whatever is a reason why bitcoin won't work is like saying "my friend had a computer virus, computers will never take off" -  in 1990. But how low will bitcoin go on the way there? Very low, perhaps, place your bets if you like.

Wrong thinking on all levels. I'm sorry. You are confused and sad and obviously should not be invested in bitcoin. If you are concerned about $100 fluctuations in price over a couple of months, you do not have what it takes to ride this dragon. I'm shocked that you put so much cash into something you obviously do not understand or appreciate. Get out as soon as you can. Really. Really.

...for the rest of you who are actually interested...here is a pretty picture...(sorry for the giant size - did not have time to format )





I suspect we are just moving out of innovators phase and into early adopters - on this chart. This year 2014 & 2015 will be the early adopter years. There is often a "gap" in the tech adoption in this phase - before the user interfaces get worked and made human friendly and a killer app or two shows up. This gap can sometimes lead to widespread doubts about the survival of the tech and a temp collapse in investment.



I believe we will blow through that gap because we have so many talented & passionate people on the case.  However I don't think we will hit early majority until mid to late 2015.

I will never get why people argue by the price of 1 Bitcoin - have you seen the market cap? It is less than 8Billion, I think that is less than M1 of Mazedonia....

It's super early. The crazy thing about Bitcoin is that the higher its value is, the more useful it is. I always thought it was insane that a year or two ago there were institutional investors who said "it's too early to buy into Bitcoin, we're going to wait for it to get bigger"... that seems like the worst investment strategy possible, but there you have it. The last "investors" to come to the table will be central banks (20 years from now), who will want to have Bitcoin reserves, once it is "big enough."

I'm not too sure anyone who is registered and posting on here has the objectivity to nail the stage of adoption we're at. Their Bitcoin radar is so finely tuned that it can't pick up the wider world.

Here is my warped opinion - early as shit.

Those scenarios already exist. More will come, and far, far more people than now will become aware of them. The timing wasn't coincidental.

It would not be early if you look at it on a logarithmic chart; it would already be most of the way to the top, given that bitcoin has already risen x1,000,000

more like, wait 20 years and open your wallet to find hard drive has crashed, pc has been hacked and long stolen, USB thumb drive is corrupted, paper wallet damaged in fire/water/bleached by sunlight/eaten by mice/disintegrated by time, etc.

We might be holding a $1 Coca Cola or Microsoft share for all we know or maybe a dot-com bubble stock that crashes.

HODL and see!! In 20 years you will be filthy rich or just as poor

ok, but ...

having gone 1 mile out of 20 or even 1 out of 50 miles would still be kinda early.

Half of the bitcoins that will ever exist, have been mined in the last 5 years, the other half will be mined in about 120 years.
I'll let you decide if you're early or late...

Good assessment, I agree. I think the "early adopter" line is basically a sales pitch used by those who are already invested in bitcoin and have interest in seeing it rise further. It's used around here so often now that I find it concerning. If we look back in 2010 I doubt we'd see too many posts from those guys claiming that they were all "early adopters". They really did find bitcoin early, and to them it was interesting and they hoped for the best, that's all.

The fact that we use it so often now leads me to believe that we're reaching a saturation point. I do believe the price will go up some more, but we're never going to hit ridiculous figures like 10,000 USD or more without real life case scenarios for why people need bitcoin. now it's still a speculative intsrument, with some small niche utilities. that will need to change.

- Governments are writing legislation about and holding publicized meetings about Bitcoin. Bitcoin is already starting to collide with and meet resistence from the establishment.
- If you go into a room at least a few people know about bitcoin.
- There are several news articles every day about bitcoin.
- My Facebook friends are now into Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin is often on the front page of Yahoo Business/Finance and other news pages, and often on NPR.
- Bitcoin exchanges are getting ready to launch in wall street.
- Tens/Hundred of thousands of businesses have already adopted Bitcoin, including major mainstream online retailers.

The "early" phase is over. This might not be the "final" phase but I don't think it's the early phase because there is such a large awareness and adoption already.

The reason the market cap is so small is because people have CHOSEN not to use it. We are not even guaranteed that bitcoin is "the future of money" so your logic of the relation of bitcoin's market cap to angry birds and to some potential market cap of quadrillions of dollars is based on a false premise. Maybe the realistic future of bitcoin is only to reach the market cap of Google or Facebook, in which case we've already realized 1/50 - 1/20 of it.  Or maybe the fair market cap of Bitcoin is the market cap of Western Union, which it's already at.

my answer is check out rovio. it has a market cap in the same range as bitcoin.

it is the company that does angry birds. that´s all they do. the future of money has the same market cap as a several year old single game app. sounds pretty early to me....