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Topic: Early adoption stage (Read 5389 times)

legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
March 21, 2014, 08:08:50 AM
#70
The scarcity or non-scarcity of software is not the point of the comparison at all.

The point is the nature of the network effects involved in adopting it. The fact that "Bitcoin" exists as a token that has market-based price discovery is incidental to the comparison.

The point of the Linux comparison is that there are viable use cases for mass adoption that do not involve masses of people directly interacting with Bitcoin in any noticable way.

Maybe a more obvious example of this scenario is voice-over-IP telephony. Basically 100% of telephone service is over IP on the backend now. But the public-facing interface is still a phone. Someone who still has regular copper pots service does not have to actually know anything about the nuances of how their phone calls are routed via IP in the background. Bitcoin could turn out the same way where the direct experience of users is through financial instruments and interfaces that resemble what they already do without having to directly interact with the Bitcoin network itself in any significant way.
Doesn't matter if muggles know they are using bitcoin or not, what matters is how much it is used. If you owned a millionth of all the copper in the world, you would be insanely rich. Not from people buying copper in its raw form, but from all the computers and phones and dishwashers people use. I get where you were going with the linux thing, but nobody makes money if I download a copy of Ubuntu.

This pervasive obsession I'm seeing with Linux adoption not directly increasing some kind of market cap is pedantic about a distinction that is irrelevant to the observation being made.
It makes for a bad comparison s'all.
hero member
Activity: 667
Merit: 500
March 21, 2014, 07:43:18 AM
#69
The scarcity or non-scarcity of software is not the point of the comparison at all.

The point is the nature of the network effects involved in adopting it. The fact that "Bitcoin" exists as a token that has market-based price discovery is incidental to the comparison.

The point of the Linux comparison is that there are viable use cases for mass adoption that do not involve masses of people directly interacting with Bitcoin in any noticable way.

Maybe a more obvious example of this scenario is voice-over-IP telephony. Basically 100% of telephone service is over IP on the backend now. But the public-facing interface is still a phone. Someone who still has regular copper pots service does not have to actually know anything about the nuances of how their phone calls are routed via IP in the background. Bitcoin could turn out the same way where the direct experience of users is through financial instruments and interfaces that resemble what they already do without having to directly interact with the Bitcoin network itself in any significant way.
Doesn't matter if muggles know they are using bitcoin or not, what matters is how much it is used. If you owned a millionth of all the copper in the world, you would be insanely rich. Not from people buying copper in its raw form, but from all the computers and phones and dishwashers people use. I get where you were going with the linux thing, but nobody makes money if I download a copy of Ubuntu.

This pervasive obsession I'm seeing with Linux adoption not directly increasing some kind of market cap is pedantic about a distinction that is irrelevant to the observation being made.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
March 20, 2014, 10:25:32 PM
#68
The scarcity or non-scarcity of software is not the point of the comparison at all.

The point is the nature of the network effects involved in adopting it. The fact that "Bitcoin" exists as a token that has market-based price discovery is incidental to the comparison.

The point of the Linux comparison is that there are viable use cases for mass adoption that do not involve masses of people directly interacting with Bitcoin in any noticable way.

Maybe a more obvious example of this scenario is voice-over-IP telephony. Basically 100% of telephone service is over IP on the backend now. But the public-facing interface is still a phone. Someone who still has regular copper pots service does not have to actually know anything about the nuances of how their phone calls are routed via IP in the background. Bitcoin could turn out the same way where the direct experience of users is through financial instruments and interfaces that resemble what they already do without having to directly interact with the Bitcoin network itself in any significant way.
Doesn't matter if muggles know they are using bitcoin or not, what matters is how much it is used. If you owned a millionth of all the copper in the world, you would be insanely rich. Not from people buying copper in its raw form, but from all the computers and phones and dishwashers people use. I get where you were going with the linux thing, but nobody makes money if I download a copy of Ubuntu.
hero member
Activity: 667
Merit: 500
March 20, 2014, 09:10:27 PM
#67
The scarcity or non-scarcity of software is not the point of the comparison at all.

The point is the nature of the network effects involved in adopting it. The fact that "Bitcoin" exists as a token that has market-based price discovery is incidental to the comparison.

The point of the Linux comparison is that there are viable use cases for mass adoption that do not involve masses of people directly interacting with Bitcoin in any noticable way.

Maybe a more obvious example of this scenario is voice-over-IP telephony. Basically 100% of telephone service is over IP on the backend now. But the public-facing interface is still a phone. Someone who still has regular copper pots service does not have to actually know anything about the nuances of how their phone calls are routed via IP in the background. Bitcoin could turn out the same way where the direct experience of users is through financial instruments and interfaces that resemble what they already do without having to directly interact with the Bitcoin network itself in any significant way.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
March 20, 2014, 08:40:46 PM
#66
This whole ecosystem might in the end turn out more like Linux adoption than say smartphone adoption.

The ultimate ubiquitous use-case for Bitcoin might end up being the underlying infrastructure of mainstream financial transactions, where consumers interact in exactly the same way as before through existing firms that convert over.

Much the same as how Linux never really caught on for desktop use but completely changed the world on the backend.

good point. difference is though that those were never traded on exchanges:



and that software is not scarce

but i thought about that case too - maybe to put in a bigger picture cryptocurrency/cryptofinance is in early stages.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 2106
March 20, 2014, 03:49:18 PM
#65
This whole ecosystem might in the end turn out more like Linux adoption than say smartphone adoption.

The ultimate ubiquitous use-case for Bitcoin might end up being the underlying infrastructure of mainstream financial transactions, where consumers interact in exactly the same way as before through existing firms that convert over.

Much the same as how Linux never really caught on for desktop use but completely changed the world on the backend.

good point. difference is though that those were never traded on exchanges:

hero member
Activity: 667
Merit: 500
March 20, 2014, 03:44:59 PM
#64
This whole ecosystem might in the end turn out more like Linux adoption than say smartphone adoption.

The ultimate ubiquitous use-case for Bitcoin might end up being the underlying infrastructure of mainstream financial transactions, where consumers interact in exactly the same way as before through existing firms that convert over.

Much the same as how Linux never really caught on for desktop use but completely changed the world on the backend.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
March 20, 2014, 01:24:43 PM
#63
everyone using the software; seeing how the "big" businesses in the btc ecosystem are run; where bitcoin can be used; and has any hint of the potential of this technology and the market size of money markets, sees at which stage of adoption this project is

In other words, yes, we're still early in the early adoption phase. Assuming that bitcoin really succeeds (which is by no means guaranteed), the bitcoin economy has room to grow thousands of times bigger and more developed than it is today.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
March 20, 2014, 08:50:24 AM
#62
According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations , the first 2.5% of adopters are "innovators" and the next 13.5% are "early adopters".

According to this https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/distribution-of-bitcoin-wealth-by-owner-316297 , 2 million people are holding BTC.

The big uncertainty is how many people will hold BTC at "full adoption". The world population is 7 billion people. If, at "full adoption", 0.1% have BTC, that's 7 million people. 7 million * 16% = 1.1 million, which means we are already past the "early adopters" stage.

However, if at "full adoption", 0.2% will have BTC, that's 14 million people. 14 million * 16% = 2.2 million, meaning we are near the end of the "early adopters" stage.

All of these numbers are guesstimates, but I think they give you a general sense of where we are. I personally think we are near the end of "early adopters". Maybe the upcoming bubble will be the end.

I might have been too conservative about full adoption. According to http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/hardware/Smartphone-user-base-to-hit-1-75bn-in-2014-eMarketer/articleshow/29051185.cms , there are 1.75 billion smartphone users. In some sense, BTC is a comparable technology -- so let's say full adoption is actually 1.75 billion people.

If that's the case, the threshold for innovators (forget early adopters, we're talking innovators) is 44 million! With only 2 million users -- holy crap! -- are we still at the beginning of the innovators stage? Anyone?

everyone using the software; seeing how the "big" businesses in the btc ecosystem are run; where bitcoin can be used; and has any hint of the potential of this technology and the market size of money markets, sees at which stage of adoption this project is
sr. member
Activity: 317
Merit: 252
March 20, 2014, 08:09:43 AM
#61
According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations , the first 2.5% of adopters are "innovators" and the next 13.5% are "early adopters".

According to this https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/distribution-of-bitcoin-wealth-by-owner-316297 , 2 million people are holding BTC.

The big uncertainty is how many people will hold BTC at "full adoption". The world population is 7 billion people. If, at "full adoption", 0.1% have BTC, that's 7 million people. 7 million * 16% = 1.1 million, which means we are already past the "early adopters" stage.

However, if at "full adoption", 0.2% will have BTC, that's 14 million people. 14 million * 16% = 2.2 million, meaning we are near the end of the "early adopters" stage.

All of these numbers are guesstimates, but I think they give you a general sense of where we are. I personally think we are near the end of "early adopters". Maybe the upcoming bubble will be the end.

I might have been too conservative about full adoption. According to http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/hardware/Smartphone-user-base-to-hit-1-75bn-in-2014-eMarketer/articleshow/29051185.cms , there are 1.75 billion smartphone users. In some sense, BTC is a comparable technology -- so let's say full adoption is actually 1.75 billion people.

If that's the case, the threshold for innovators (forget early adopters, we're talking innovators) is 44 million! With only 2 million users -- holy crap! -- are we still at the beginning of the innovators stage? Anyone?
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
March 19, 2014, 09:34:19 PM
#60
Would you say we are in early adoption stage?


my answer is check out rovio. it has a market cap in the same range as bitcoin.

it is the company that does angry birds. that´s all they do. the future of money has the same market cap as a several year old single game app. sounds pretty early to me....  Wink

If it is in fact true about the comparable market caps, then this is one hell of a way to put things into perspective.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1040
A Great Time to Start Something!
March 19, 2014, 08:54:05 PM
#59
Maybe you can tell me. What makes litecoin worth something?

LTC has proven value because the market has spoken.
You can predict lower prices and/or try to debate, but LTC currently has value and no one needs to prove it.



But it does nothing better than bitcoin....

Litecoin (currently) allows people to buy 10 LTC for under $180.
Many people would rather be paid a higher number of LTC, than 0.00047 BTC (for example)
The higher prices go, the more value this difference will have.


ps. You are also off-topic; Have a great night  Smiley
hero member
Activity: 1470
Merit: 504
March 19, 2014, 08:51:00 PM
#58
Litecoin has no advantages to Bitcoin, only differences... The differences may or may not be advantageous depending on the perspective from where you look at them...

The Litecoin blockchain would not be susceptible to potential future problems with SHA-2 encryption. Cracking scrypt encryption is extremely memory intensive...

It's more likely to succeed compared with any of the other alt coins because of the demographic of its supporters.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
March 19, 2014, 08:49:49 PM
#57
No. Early adoption ended in January 2013.

Summer 2013 gave one last shot to latecomers in the dip to 50-60's.

legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
March 19, 2014, 08:40:52 PM
#56
Good call. Bitcoin has competition...

Bitcoin does have one major advantage; the level of investment in mining infrastructure...

I think it's wise to keep Bitcoin and Litecoin a part of your digital portfolio.
Maybe you can tell me. What makes litecoin worth something?

Relatively rare, well established, accepted at a growing list of places.
Also a hedge for investors: some possible bugs/attacks on BTC might not work on LTC, especially if they develop new features.
But it does nothing better than bitcoin. Other than perhaps requiring different (not necessarily harder) ways to be hacked, it's just a weaker version of bitcoin in all aspects.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1040
A Great Time to Start Something!
March 19, 2014, 08:39:10 PM
#55
Good call. Bitcoin has competition...

Bitcoin does have one major advantage; the level of investment in mining infrastructure...

I think it's wise to keep Bitcoin and Litecoin a part of your digital portfolio.
Maybe you can tell me. What makes litecoin worth something?

Relatively rare, well established, accepted at a growing list of places.
Also a hedge for investors: some possible bugs/attacks on BTC might not work on LTC, especially if they develop new features.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
March 19, 2014, 08:35:36 PM
#54
Good call. Bitcoin has competition...

Bitcoin does have one major advantage; the level of investment in mining infrastructure...

I think it's wise to keep Bitcoin and Litecoin a part of your digital portfolio.
Maybe you can tell me. What makes litecoin worth something?
hero member
Activity: 1470
Merit: 504
March 19, 2014, 08:34:35 PM
#53
Good call. Bitcoin has competition...

Bitcoin does have one major advantage; the level of investment in mining infrastructure...

I think it's wise to keep Bitcoin and Litecoin a part of your digital portfolio.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1040
A Great Time to Start Something!
March 19, 2014, 08:29:51 PM
#52
We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late majority.



I would say we are early adopters. People who bought before mid-2013 are innovators IMHO. We are definitely not in the early majority yet.

We jumped the chasm last year and then slid into the hole.
Now BTC needs to crawl back out of a negative period.

If we jumped the chasm last year it would be an incredibly depressing realization...

Personally I think we are still in the earliest stage of adoption. The governments don't even know what Bitcoin is yet. They are scrambling to try and classify it, then regulate the exchanges.

There's no way we have 13% of full adoption yet. Thinking that in this stage just doesn't sound, feel, or seem right.

Regardless of any financial benefits the future might bring, we are all still very early adopters...

The distribution of BTC wealth will shift around as time goes on. The earliest of adopters will take huge profits but it's very unlikely that they will cash out completely...

Bitcoin is a revolution waiting to happen. Most people don't even realize the amount of control exerted over them. People can have control of their wealth once again with Bitcoin; the perceived risk decreases and becomes palatable as time goes on. The longer Bitcoin exists, the more powerful it becomes...

There are so many people living in depressed areas where Bitcoin can greatly benefit users; I don't think Bitcoin has jumped the chasm yet...

Digital currency is a revolution waiting to happen:
I'm still excited about BTC, but a new leader might rise out of the altcoin mess.
Perhaps someone will "re-brand" the bitcoin blockchain with new wallets and a new name; That is also possible.
hero member
Activity: 1470
Merit: 504
March 19, 2014, 08:11:22 PM
#51
We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late majority.



I would say we are early adopters. People who bought before mid-2013 are innovators IMHO. We are definitely not in the early majority yet.

We jumped the chasm last year and then slid into the hole.
Now BTC needs to crawl back out of a negative period.

If we jumped the chasm last year it would be an incredibly depressing realization...

Personally I think we are still in the earliest stage of adoption. The governments don't even know what Bitcoin is yet. They are scrambling to try and classify it, then regulate the exchanges.

There's no way we have 13% of full adoption yet. Thinking that in this stage just doesn't sound, feel, or seem right.

Regardless of any financial benefits the future might bring, we are all still very early adopters...

The distribution of BTC wealth will shift around as time goes on. The earliest of adopters will take huge profits but it's very unlikely that they will cash out completely...

Bitcoin is a revolution waiting to happen. Most people don't even realize the amount of control exerted over them. People can have control of their wealth once again with Bitcoin; the perceived risk decreases and becomes palatable as time goes on. The longer Bitcoin exists, the more powerful it becomes...

There are so many people living in depressed areas where Bitcoin can greatly benefit users; I don't think Bitcoin has jumped the chasm yet...
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