Early adoption stage - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Bit_Happy

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Quote from: bitleif on March 19, 2014, 01:04:04 PM

Quote from: Dafar on March 19, 2014, 12:57:25 PM

We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late majority.

I would say we are early adopters. People who bought before mid-2013 are innovators IMHO. We are definitely not in the early majority yet.

We jumped the chasm last year and then slid into the hole.
Now BTC needs to crawl back out of a negative period.

Bit_Happy

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Quote from: ?? on ??

More like in an advanced phase. I believe that the coming months will make or break Bitcoin. Also, Bitcoin is being almost exclusively kept as an investment, instead of being used as a currency (yes, that is obvious, but I just wanted to emphasize that little fact). If no big players start adopting Bitcoin before december 31st 2014, it will be over. Investors will start to realize that Bitcoin is overpriced and at that point, everyone will rush to the door.

I don't know about the other cryptos in such a situation though.

Everyone will rush to the door...
OMG we are thinking like a Ponzi and everyone will rush to the door sell, sell, sell.
^^^
BS
Wall Street is preparing to throw huge money at BTC.
Good luck with your FUD.

windjc

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Quote from: TERA on March 18, 2014, 04:19:27 PM

- Governments are writing legislation about and holding publicized meetings about Bitcoin. Bitcoin is already starting to collide with and meet resistence from the establishment.

Governments recognizing a technology is not a sign that it is in any particular "stage." They recognized cell phones decades before the iphone.

- If you go into a room at least a few people know about bitcoin.

Not a true statement. Maybe in TERA's world, but not in the actual world of billions of people. Only a small few have heard of it. A smaller few know what it even is.

- There are several news articles every day about bitcoin.

Most of the world doesn't read these articles. Most of these articles are read by the same small %. Again, there were many articles written about the internet before people used it. Many are still not using it.

- My Facebook friends are now into Bitcoin.

TERA's facebook friends are now into Bitcoin. Ha, this means what? It means TERA has friends in the small minority.

- Bitcoin is often on the front page of Yahoo Business/Finance and other news pages, and often on NPR.

Bitcoin being in the business/finance section is limited scope. When its in the world wide human vernacular, ie twitter, facebook, iphone, netflix, then we can talk about majority trend lines.

- Bitcoin exchanges are getting ready to launch in wall street.

Again, this is not widespread usability. This is just more speculation. The applications that can make Bitcoin adopted worldwide in different industries and platforms are still in development.

- Tens/Hundred of thousands of businesses have already adopted Bitcoin, including major mainstream online retailers.

Given that hundreds of millions of businesses exists, this shows how the term "early adopters" apply to today's reality.

The "early" phase is over. This might not be the "final" phase but I don't think it's the early phase because there is such a large awareness and adoption already.

The early phase just began.

The reason the market cap is so small is because people have CHOSEN not to use it. We are not even guaranteed that bitcoin is "the future of money" so your logic of the relation of bitcoin's market cap to angry birds and to some potential market cap of quadrillions of dollars is based on a false premise. Maybe the realistic future of bitcoin is only to reach the market cap of Google or Facebook, in which case we've already realized 1/50 - 1/20 of it. Or maybe the fair market cap of Bitcoin is the market cap of Western Union, which it's already at.

The reason the market cap is so small is that bitcoin is not easy to use yet nor it is easy to acquire nor is it easy to manage. Once applications are developed to allow this and people can experience the advantages of digital currency in their everyday lives, bitcoin can move into majority mode.

adud

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Is there a user base history (or number of addresses with non-zero balance)?
It could be interesting to see how fast (or slow) it grows, or cross reference with price over time.

xDan

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ヽ( ㅇㅅㅇ)ﾉ ~!!

Quote from: TERA on March 18, 2014, 04:19:27 PM

- Governments are writing legislation about and holding publicized meetings about Bitcoin. Bitcoin is already starting to collide with and meet resistence from the establishment.
- If you go into a room at least a few people know about bitcoin.
- There are several news articles every day about bitcoin.
- My Facebook friends are now into Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin is often on the front page of Yahoo Business/Finance and other news pages, and often on NPR.
- Bitcoin exchanges are getting ready to launch in wall street.
- Tens/Hundred of thousands of businesses have already adopted Bitcoin, including major mainstream online retailers.

- governments are running scared, this threatens them more than the Internet itself could have. Money = power. So they have incentive to get in the action very early.
- lots of people know about Bitcoin, very few own any or actually know how to *use* it.

I personally think what happens now is simply long slow growth as services are built to make it easier to use. Maybe we already had the "dotcom boom" of bitcoin, but now we have a long slow increase that is no longer driven as much by speculation as by actual useful services (I hope).

Quote from: aminorex

Considering that bitcoin is all but unusable, the mind boggles to consider what the value will be once it is easy to use for any fit purpose.

Freakin' this!

Bitcoin is still incredibly difficult for normal people to use. When a kid can get bitcoin as easy as buying phone credit, THEN things may get interesting.

bitrider

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Dafar - Don't let your current pain cloud your vision. You bought in during the bubble phase, like many others. The same thing happened when folks bought in at $250 and then had to hold down through $50. But within 8 months those same people were in 400% profit.

although we never know for sure, I believe strongly you will get to ride at least 1 great rocket in the next 12 months, that will leave you grateful you bought way way back in 2013. Cool

Hopefully your faith will be repaid and you will be able to tell your story to the next wave of adopters who show up when btc is at $5k.

may it be so...

and yes. Don't leave any significant funds (fiat or BTC) on the exchanges. Very bad idea.

Dafar

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Quote from: the_poet on March 19, 2014, 01:48:37 PM

Quote from: Dafar on March 19, 2014, 12:57:25 PM

We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late majority.

Not sure if you're aware of what you're stating, but late majority would actually mean that Bitcoin almost reached its maximum user base, which I really don't think is the case.

I meant late minority, oops

Quote from: gentlemand on March 19, 2014, 01:55:04 PM

Well, if you'd popped back to 2011 and told everyone what was transpiring a piffling 2-2.5 years from then - VCs, hedge funds, professional investors, thousands of merchants, governments sitting up and taking notice, exchanges on the horizon which might actually not steal your money - people would think you were utterly deranged.

The combo of all that weight, all the beatings Bitcoin has taken and it's still growing and yet only a few tens or hundreds of thousands own a complete coin makes right now a pretty miraculous time to buy in.

I presumed it would be a multi-year deal. That's fine with me. There'll be many, many more lulls, scares and explosions. In 2016 you'll be a veteran who's seen it all and thrived.

That's what I'm hoping for! I'm eager to see where we go by 2016, i'll definitely be holding by then as long as my coins don't disappear. I think LTC has a chance of showing me some love... but I should probably get them off BTC-E

gentlemand

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Quote from: Dafar on March 19, 2014, 01:30:15 PM

Quote from: gentlemand on March 19, 2014, 01:07:21 PM

Quote from: Dafar on March 19, 2014, 12:57:25 PM

We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late majority.

Everyone saying we are early adopters are hoping for another 10x-100x profits... which will most likely not happen. I want it to happen more than anything else but I'm just being realistic. Good luck getting to $1T market cap with all the FUD, lack of security, regulation and overall understanding of what the hell bitcoin is. Maybe in 10 years... but I so wish I was an early adopter and got in last year or 2 years ago. Your only hope of ever seeing those kinds of profits again is through a time machine.

You appear to be a bit dispirited today. 2009-2012 types are sub micro stealth adopters.

I've no idea about orders of magnitude higher, but when one ATM machine arriving in an entire country still gets people excited I think we can assume it's still unbelievably early days.

There's a universe of difference between a regular person hearing the word Bitcoin, then actually vaguely figuring out what it is, then deciding it's worth taking the plunge, then creating a wallet and buying some or being paid some. That might be a process of several years for most.

I'll state it again - if you're posting on here you're so attuned to Bitcoin that it's very hard to conceive of what the non-infected world makes of it. It's still a drip in a swirling ocean.

I am. I'm down 90% on some of my Alt coin investments (on a significant amount of money), down nearly 40% on LTC, just barely up on BTC since I joined last Sept/Oct. I'm still a believer of bitcoin, but I'm going to remain pessimistic on my financial situation until I see the dough. I have a strong superstitious theory that I am just unlucky when it comes to money and investing (which has been proven over and over again), so I have doubts that I will be fortunate enough to ride another price explosion. It must be an amazing feeling. I live vicariously though you guys who have experienced that.

Well, if you'd popped back to 2011 and told everyone what was transpiring a piffling 2-2.5 years from then - VCs, hedge funds, professional investors, thousands of merchants, governments sitting up and taking notice, exchanges on the horizon which might actually not steal your money - people would think you were utterly deranged.

The combo of all that weight, all the beatings Bitcoin has taken and it's still growing and yet only a few tens or hundreds of thousands own a complete coin makes right now a pretty miraculous time to buy in.

I presumed it would be a multi-year deal. That's fine with me. There'll be many, many more lulls, scares and explosions. In 2016 you'll be a veteran who's seen it all and thrived.

the_poet

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Quote from: Dafar on March 19, 2014, 12:57:25 PM

We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late majority.

Not sure if you're aware of what you're stating, but late majority would actually mean that Bitcoin almost reached its maximum user base, which I really don't think is the case.

Joe200

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According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations , the first 2.5% of adopters are "innovators" and the next 13.5% are "early adopters".

According to this https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/distribution-of-bitcoin-wealth-by-owner-316297 , 2 million people are holding BTC.

The big uncertainty is how many people will hold BTC at "full adoption". The world population is 7 billion people. If, at "full adoption", 0.1% have BTC, that's 7 million people. 7 million * 16% = 1.1 million, which means we are already past the "early adopters" stage.

However, if at "full adoption", 0.2% will have BTC, that's 14 million people. 14 million * 16% = 2.2 million, meaning we are near the end of the "early adopters" stage.

All of these numbers are guesstimates, but I think they give you a general sense of where we are. I personally think we are near the end of "early adopters". Maybe the upcoming bubble will be the end.

Dafar

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Quote from: gentlemand on March 19, 2014, 01:07:21 PM

Quote from: Dafar on March 19, 2014, 12:57:25 PM

We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late majority.

Everyone saying we are early adopters are hoping for another 10x-100x profits... which will most likely not happen. I want it to happen more than anything else but I'm just being realistic. Good luck getting to $1T market cap with all the FUD, lack of security, regulation and overall understanding of what the hell bitcoin is. Maybe in 10 years... but I so wish I was an early adopter and got in last year or 2 years ago. Your only hope of ever seeing those kinds of profits again is through a time machine.

You appear to be a bit dispirited today. 2009-2012 types are sub micro stealth adopters.

I've no idea about orders of magnitude higher, but when one ATM machine arriving in an entire country still gets people excited I think we can assume it's still unbelievably early days.

There's a universe of difference between a regular person hearing the word Bitcoin, then actually vaguely figuring out what it is, then deciding it's worth taking the plunge, then creating a wallet and buying some or being paid some. That might be a process of several years for most.

I'll state it again - if you're posting on here you're so attuned to Bitcoin that it's very hard to conceive of what the non-infected world makes of it. It's still a drip in a swirling ocean.

I am. I'm down 90% on some of my Alt coin investments (on a significant amount of money), down nearly 40% on LTC, just barely up on BTC since I joined last Sept/Oct. I'm still a believer of bitcoin, but I'm going to remain pessimistic on my financial situation until I see the dough. I have a strong superstitious theory that I am just unlucky when it comes to money and investing (which has been proven over and over again), so I have doubts that I will be fortunate enough to ride another price explosion. It must be an amazing feeling. I live vicariously though you guys who have experienced that.

Peter R

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It all depends on the adoption-saturation level.

If growth stops now, new users are laggards.

If eventually 10% of the population become bitcoin users (assuming < 0.1% currently have), then current bitcoin adoption is at less than 1% of the saturation level. This would mean that new users are innovators (or earlier).

This is the case with all technology, by the way. You can only tell if you were an innovator or a laggard (or somewhere in between) with the benefit of hindsight!

gentlemand

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Quote from: Dafar on March 19, 2014, 12:57:25 PM

We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late majority.

Everyone saying we are early adopters are hoping for another 10x-100x profits... which will most likely not happen. I want it to happen more than anything else but I'm just being realistic. Good luck getting to $1T market cap with all the FUD, lack of security, regulation and overall understanding of what the hell bitcoin is. Maybe in 10 years... but I so wish I was an early adopter and got in last year or 2 years ago. Your only hope of ever seeing those kinds of profits again is through a time machine.

You appear to be a bit dispirited today. 2009-2012 types are sub micro stealth adopters.

I've no idea about orders of magnitude higher, but when one ATM machine arriving in an entire country still gets people excited I think we can assume it's still unbelievably early days.

There's a universe of difference between a regular person hearing the word Bitcoin, then actually vaguely figuring out what it is, then deciding it's worth taking the plunge, then creating a wallet and buying some or being paid some. That might be a process of several years for most.

I'll state it again - if you're posting on here you're so attuned to Bitcoin that it's very hard to conceive of what the non-infected world makes of it. It's still a drip in a swirling ocean.

bitleif

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Quote from: Dafar on March 19, 2014, 12:57:25 PM

We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late majority.

I would say we are early adopters. People who bought before mid-2013 are innovators IMHO. We are definitely not in the early majority yet.

Dafar

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We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late minority

Everyone saying we are early adopters are hoping for another 10x-100x profits... which will most likely not happen. I want it to happen more than anything else but I'm just being realistic. Good luck getting to $1T market cap with all the FUD, lack of security, regulation and overall understanding of what the hell bitcoin is. Maybe in 10 years... but I so wish I was an early adopter and got in last year or 2 years ago. Your only hope of ever seeing those kinds of profits again is through a time machine.

jubalix

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Quote from: TERA on March 18, 2014, 04:19:27 PM

- Governments are writing legislation about and holding publicized meetings about Bitcoin. Bitcoin is already starting to collide with and meet resistence from the establishment.
- If you go into a room at least a few people know about bitcoin.
- There are several news articles every day about bitcoin.
- My Facebook friends are now into Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin is often on the front page of Yahoo Business/Finance and other news pages, and often on NPR.
- Bitcoin exchanges are getting ready to launch in wall street.
- Tens/Hundred of thousands of businesses have already adopted Bitcoin, including major mainstream online retailers.

The "early" phase is over. This might not be the "final" phase but I don't think it's the early phase because there is such a large awareness and adoption already.

The reason the market cap is so small is because people have CHOSEN not to use it. We are not even guaranteed that bitcoin is "the future of money" so your logic of the relation of bitcoin's market cap to angry birds and to some potential market cap of quadrillions of dollars is based on a false premise. Maybe the realistic future of bitcoin is only to reach the market cap of Google or Facebook, in which case we've already realized 1/50 - 1/20 of it. Or maybe the fair market cap of Bitcoin is the market cap of Western Union, which it's already at.

awareness != adoption

also do you see legislators getting themselves in a bundle over angry birds. Nope.

BTC tech, can actually take away a massive amount of state power, and the fact they have make announcements on it says everything. I mean all of the large govt financials had to take drastic action to stop the bitcoin blackhole from sucking every last bit of value from the RMB.

Alot of people have hears about BTC now sure, vaugley....but very very few own it. Even fewer are not Hodling.

You are seeing the smallest tip of ice berg right now and the modern state is the titanic.

the_poet

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However, in order for the masses to adopt Bitcoin:

#1 it needs to be much easier to use

#2 submultiples have to be used: people want to buy whole amounts of things, not tiny fractions. One of the things that kept me from buying Bitcoin was the fact that I thought only whole coins could be bought. And I'm sure many people who'd like to jump in have the same misbelief!

Ekaros

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Quote from: aminorex on March 19, 2014, 02:08:41 AM

Considering that bitcoin is all but unusable, the mind boggles to consider what the value will be once it is easy to use for any fit purpose.

Will it ever be easy to use?

I think bitcoin will stabilize on lower price level in future, there might be one or two bubles on the way, but generally it's most likely to end up as nerd-currency with a few use cases...

the_poet

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My opinion is that we've left the very early phase and are now early adopters. In the coming months the price will reach low $x,xxx and the massive media coverage will help bring a lot of the public in.

I always use myself as a very good metrics: I first heard about Bitcoin in early 2013 and everytime I read an article about Bitcoin I thought you people were just a bunch of nerds who needed to get a life. As soon as I started reading about price increases, I started to convince myself it was just a bubble bound to burst. All this until last december when Bitcoin reached ATH and I started to slowly change my opinion: "perhaps the bubble won't burst" -> "it's possible that it isn't a bubble at all" -> "I could give it a try" -> "it's an opportunity". So, on early January I decided to finally signup for an account at BitcoinTalk.org and spent the whole night reading (I went to bed at 5:30 AM). Now, 2.5 months later and totally on the other side of the fence, I like to call myself a proud HODLER and make fun of those who disregard Bitcoin as a "stupid tulip-like bubble".

Arghhh

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Quote from: 600watt on March 19, 2014, 03:00:17 AM

Quote from: Arghhh on March 19, 2014, 02:51:07 AM

People who think Bitcoin is nearly maxed out at $8 billion market share are either bad at economics, math, history, or all of them. Wink

uhh, and i thought is was other way around:

Lololololol

2011 just called and they want that image back (and their $2 Bitcoins).

Topic: Early adoption stage - page 2. (Read 5389 times)