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Topic: Eligius: 0% Fee BTC, 105% PPS NMC, No registration, CPPSRB - page 160. (Read 1061485 times)

jcp
newbie
Activity: 14
Merit: 0
These stats do not seem out of the ordinary.

Maybe wizkid can enlighten us as to how he has deduced that these addresses below to the block withholder.

To be clear, I'm not on anyone's side here and have suffered a 50 BTC loss from eligius' bad luck. I'd just like to know all of the facts and how wizkid came to his conclusions.

They don't look out of the ordinary if those blocks were evenly distributed. However, all the blocks were made in a small timeframe. Look at the 17JkL94B2ngJg4QQZuiozDQjnxXB6B7yTc blocks, they were all mined on a single day, same with the 1Gu8zxRi8cyENV8CQe52D7QEsiZ7ruT73u blocks. They were reported within a single day (probably when they were setting it up).That's an odd coincidence.

If they were evenly distributed and not suspicious, the odds of that occuring is somewhere around 1 in 1300 using a binomial CDF. When you consider the total population of miners, odds are some miners would be outliers...

HOWEVER, their mined blocks are not evenly distributed and looks as though they were only mined when starting up.

If those two days are actually the day the addresses were set up and we exclude those mined blocks, the odds are staggeringly low...

For example, let's calculate the odds of mining 0 out of 20 expected blocks:
BinomialCDF( x=ActualMinedBlocks, n=(BitcoinDifficulty*ExpectedMinedBlocks), p=(1/BitcoinDifficulty) )
BinomialCDF( x=0, n=(117565519166*20), p=(1/117565519166) ) = 2.06e-9 (1 in 2 billion)
** Taking the lower P value. Technically n should be multiplied by the difference in difficulty and hashrate (7158278) and p divided by the same, as we actually want to measure hashes not on the bitcoin difficulty, but we ignore this because it's so far out the tail the numbers are similar enough for way too many significant digits, you're still going to get 2.06e-9, I'd rather reduce the chances of typos. We are also assuming difficulty of today, when difficulty was lower before (meaning the p value should be higher; the odds are even more slim).

1 in 2 billion confidence for being representative when mining 0 out of 20 expected is garbage and there's trivial ways to check miner operation, but on pure statistics alone, one can be extremely confident this was not by chance. It's probably even more unlikely if we only calculate the last month for all pools. It's early in the morning for me, so my math might be a bit off (or outright wrong) -- and it's been a while since I took highschool statistics Smiley so I'd appreciate if any professional statisticians chimed in as well.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1007
Nice job catching them!!!
I think out of the 200 btc, Eligius should acquire solid state disks (such as nimbus data gemeni flash array).  Db will never have any issues and rebuilding/reorganizing etc.. will be a thousand times faster. 
Just my 2 cents. 
Overall, we should beef up Eligius and spread what's leftover

Another point, couldn't we analyze these 2 addresses for relationships with other addresses to see if we could infer identities behind these addys?  Maybe not, but it could yield some interesting leads...

The ~200 BTC belongs to the miners affected, IMO, not in any way a donation to Eligius.

On a side note, almost everything important is on SSDs except for the webserver... which will be shortly.  Software is needing some updating/rewriting to get more speed, though.

I am sure that some donations will come after this! Good job!
vip
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
AKA: gigavps
According to: http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstats/blocks.php

http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstats/userstats.php/1Gu8zxRi8cyENV8CQe52D7QEsiZ7ruT73u

found two blocks and is owed 103 BTC.

http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstats/userstats.php/17JkL94B2ngJg4QQZuiozDQjnxXB6B7yTc

found five blocks and is owed 122 BTC.

These stats do not seem out of the ordinary.

Maybe wizkid can enlighten us as to how he has deduced that these addresses below to the block withholder.

To be clear, I'm not on anyone's side here and have suffered a 50 BTC loss from eligius' bad luck. I'd just like to know all of the facts and how wizkid came to his conclusions.
full member
Activity: 138
Merit: 100
I'd like to see the BTC 200 from Eligius and 300 from Blockwitholder put in escrow and a trusted 3rd party audit carried out.

I'd rather this was done than some witch hunt / trial by media.


member
Activity: 271
Merit: 10

Overall, I think that you cannot prove that I was guilty



I hate to tell you this but a lot of people guilty of crimes use this line when there is overwhelming evidence that does point to their guilt.  Instead of trying to give evidence that you are innocent, you go to the court of public opinion by trying to make Eligius look like the bad guy.  As someone else pointed out, you don't say you didn't do it or you didn't mean to do it due to bad coding.  It's too late to claim this defense because it's already been pointed out to you.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
I am the owner of 17JkL94B2ngJg4QQZuiozDQjnxXB6B7yTc , 1Gu8zxRi8cyENV8CQe52D7QEsiZ7ruT73u.
First of all, your PR is very good at dealing with such "incident", to make this thing clear, I'll past the timeline and post we have:


Overall, I think that you cannot prove that I was guilty, and you are innocent mathematically. The only word makes you look like innocent is like "I am the 2nd oldest pool, trust me".


so you are saying that even though, mathematically;
for the ~300BTC earned by the two addresses, roughly 12 blocks *should* have been solved/submitted by you
Because it sounds like you submitted no blocks. Thats like flipping a coin tails a dozen times in a row - either luck is way out of whack or you have a fake coin.

It's more like double that, because he has mined something like 600BTC on eligius without submitting a block.

The mathematical probability this dude not finding a block with the amount of work required to find 24 blocks is:

One in 81,000,000

ie. pretty fucking unlikely.

One In 81 million? Could you please explain the math.


Based on this:
http://www.drdobbs.com/architecture-and-design/20-heads-in-a-row-what-are-the-odds/229300217
member
Activity: 66
Merit: 10
I am the owner of 17JkL94B2ngJg4QQZuiozDQjnxXB6B7yTc , 1Gu8zxRi8cyENV8CQe52D7QEsiZ7ruT73u.
First of all, your PR is very good at dealing with such "incident", to make this thing clear, I'll past the timeline and post we have:


Overall, I think that you cannot prove that I was guilty, and you are innocent mathematically. The only word makes you look like innocent is like "I am the 2nd oldest pool, trust me".


so you are saying that even though, mathematically;
for the ~300BTC earned by the two addresses, roughly 12 blocks *should* have been solved/submitted by you
Because it sounds like you submitted no blocks. Thats like flipping a coin tails a dozen times in a row - either luck is way out of whack or you have a fake coin.

It's more like double that, because he has mined something like 600BTC on eligius without submitting a block.

The mathematical probability this dude not finding a block with the amount of work required to find 24 blocks is:

One in 81,000,000

ie. pretty fucking unlikely.

One In 81 million? Could you please explain the math.
sr. member
Activity: 244
Merit: 250
Do not only think about the sabotage but think about the "lie in waiting attack" too.
As described here https://bitcoil.co.il/pool_analysis.pdf

This would be an explanation for the peaks in block solutions just before changing difficulty.
Because changing difficulty makes witholded solutions invalid.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
I am the owner of 17JkL94B2ngJg4QQZuiozDQjnxXB6B7yTc , 1Gu8zxRi8cyENV8CQe52D7QEsiZ7ruT73u.
First of all, your PR is very good at dealing with such "incident", to make this thing clear, I'll past the timeline and post we have:


Overall, I think that you cannot prove that I was guilty, and you are innocent mathematically. The only word makes you look like innocent is like "I am the 2nd oldest pool, trust me".


so you are saying that even though, mathematically;
for the ~300BTC earned by the two addresses, roughly 12 blocks *should* have been solved/submitted by you
Because it sounds like you submitted no blocks. Thats like flipping a coin tails a dozen times in a row - either luck is way out of whack or you have a fake coin.

It's more like double that, because he has mined something like 600BTC on eligius without submitting a block.

The mathematical probability this dude not finding a block with the amount of work required to find 24 blocks is:

One in 81,000,000

ie. pretty fucking unlikely.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
I am the owner of 17JkL94B2ngJg4QQZuiozDQjnxXB6B7yTc , 1Gu8zxRi8cyENV8CQe52D7QEsiZ7ruT73u.
First of all, your PR is very good at dealing with such "incident", to make this thing clear, I'll past the timeline and post we have:


Overall, I think that you cannot prove that I was guilty, and you are innocent mathematically. The only word makes you look like innocent is like "I am the 2nd oldest pool, trust me".


so you are saying that even though, mathematically;
for the ~300BTC earned by the two addresses, roughly 12 blocks *should* have been solved/submitted by you
Because it sounds like you submitted no blocks. Thats like flipping a coin tails a dozen times in a row - either luck is way out of whack or you have a fake coin.

It's more like double that, because he has mined something like 600BTC on eligius without submitting a block.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
He started his own thread to try to get support....

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7289198
legendary
Activity: 2128
Merit: 1005
ASIC Wannabe
I am the owner of 17JkL94B2ngJg4QQZuiozDQjnxXB6B7yTc , 1Gu8zxRi8cyENV8CQe52D7QEsiZ7ruT73u.
First of all, your PR is very good at dealing with such "incident", to make this thing clear, I'll past the timeline and post we have:


Overall, I think that you cannot prove that I was guilty, and you are innocent mathematically. The only word makes you look like innocent is like "I am the 2nd oldest pool, trust me".


so you are saying that even though, mathematically;
for the ~300BTC earned by the two addresses, roughly 12 blocks *should* have been solved/submitted by you
Because it sounds like you submitted no blocks. Thats like flipping a coin tails a dozen times in a row - either luck is way out of whack or you have a fake coin.
member
Activity: 79
Merit: 10
What I can not get my head around is why would anyone leave an
amount like that anywhere but their own personal wallets after what happened to Mt Gox.

 Huh
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
member
Activity: 65
Merit: 10
I am the owner of 17JkL94B2ngJg4QQZuiozDQjnxXB6B7yTc , 1Gu8zxRi8cyENV8CQe52D7QEsiZ7ruT73u.
First of all, your PR is very good at dealing with such "incident", to make this thing clear, I'll past the timeline and post we have:

In 5.16, I post my ticket.
In 5.21, you replied to request signature for my address, I replied.
In 5.23, you found my signature is wrong. after investigate, I found that I add a extra space on somewhere, then I re-sign the text.
Then, a week passed. After I said that if there's no response, I will post it on society. Finally, you announced.
Then I give you some option.
Then you keep slience and post this.

The last shared submitted on these address is in first week of May, and you keep slience, until I warn you twice.

For your " demanding 1164%-APY interest", Let me paste my last post here:

===============
Hi,

This may be the last time I ask for your response.
You need to choose one of these two options in 72 hours, or we'll 'escalate' this case to the whole bitcoin society, and your local law enforcement agencies may also be involved later.

1. Pay all unpaid bitcoin before 6/15.
2. Pay under a installment plan: pay 10% per week, or pay 5% a week, with a extra 5% interest.
===================

Thats all, 5% interest. If you can pay me in 10 week, you can still pay nothing extra!!!

Overall, I think that you cannot prove that I was guilty, and you are innocent mathematically. The only word makes you look like innocent is like "I am the 2nd old pool, trust me".


If I didn't do it I would say that I didn't do it. 

If I didn't do it I would try to post information showing that I didn't do it.

You wrote a very long post and not one time did you say that you did not do it.  To me, that says a lot!

Don't bother now, it's too late.


member
Activity: 116
Merit: 10
hero member
Activity: 1582
Merit: 502
Following some transactions from one of the addresses I ended up here: https://blockchain.info/address/13p5iQkqBEVgKmPeJqEL2LBRS44PjX1dZL

Who is this?
Another pool?
Gambling site?

s2
full member
Activity: 198
Merit: 123
Just curious, how can you be confident this was a hack?  I mean what is the probability that they've just had bad luck and never got a winning answer but have genuinely been playing fairly? 

Reason I ask is if it was bad luck you're inadvertently screwing over a genuine miner to subsidize others. (Although is surprising someone would leave that much BTC in an online account!)

I'm guessing you're very sure about this but would like to know how you're so sure.
full member
Activity: 122
Merit: 100
I Quantum Leap to different worlds when I sleep...
 It's stories like this is what helps restores my Faith in HUMANITY seeing there are still Good people in this World Grin  Score 1 for the Good Guys Wink Too many people in this world have no Morals and think? They can just get away with anything and never have to answer for anything?But there is always a Higher Power at work! They should a known better then to take from a Saint I'm sure they will think Twice about trying to pull that again !because In the end ?You always get what you deserve! What always goes around? Comes Around eventually...... Karma you got to Love It! I imagine Good things will be coming your way Whiz in return Wink
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1001
This explains why some people have noticed that Eligius is "sitting on" a huge amount of BTC.

Good job.

BTW, someone said luck is down.  That's not true.  Luck is great.

Last 10 blocks: 77.33%
Last 12 hours: 64.07%
Last 24 hours: 74.97%
Last 7 days: 99.78% <--- key figure
Last 30 days: 102.22% <--- key figure
Last 90 days: 95.84% <--- slowly creeping up

M


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