Esports Prediction & Discussion Thread - page 241.

boyptc

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Quote from: arallmuus on May 28, 2022, 06:37:57 PM

Kinda boring that we gotta wait for a week until we get some good matches in DOTA, pretty much nothing to bet on right now with all those open qualifiers to DPC.

There are ongoing matches but they're not the ones that we like to see, like young blood and unknown teams. One that's no need to wait for long is the BTS Pro Series: Sea and America and the teams are quite familiar.
They're both on their near end.

--> https://liquipedia.net/dota2/BTS/Pro_Series/11/Southeast_Asia

--> https://liquipedia.net/dota2/BTS/Pro_Series/11/Americas

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Quote from: sunsilk on May 28, 2022, 06:20:57 PM

Aren't they on division 2? Well, they're going to kick a lot of teams from there.

Well getting back to 1st division is going to be easy but their main target would be to qualify for the TI and with Tundra, OG, GG, Team Liquid pretty much almost qualified, their chances are looking good because the only contenders left are Alliance and Team Secret. Anyway, Im going for Nigma -1.5 for every game they will have on 2nd division lol

Kinda boring that we gotta wait for a week until we get some good matches in DOTA, pretty much nothing to bet on right now with all those open qualifiers to DPC.

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Nigma.Galaxy officially announces that they're with Sumail. Miracle goes back to carry and their respective and original position.

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy add SumaiL as new midlaner, Miracle shifts to carry

Aren't they on division 2? Well, they're going to kick a lot of teams from there.

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Quote from: tomahawk9 on May 28, 2022, 06:12:07 AM

No matter how good we think NA or EU are, CN/KR are miles better than the them. It's crazy to see just how big the gap between those regions has grown over the year Sad

2-0 T1 and Faker is playing Akali which is OP in the hands of the goat so, 3-0 incoming :/

Quote from: Boristhecat on May 28, 2022, 02:28:00 AM

A bet on total over 3.5 looks really like free money, it turns out that bookmakers are very likely to expect T1 to win with a score of 3-0? This is a big underestimation of G2.

Everyone expected G2 to go toe-to-toe against T1, especially after seeing the latter struggling in the group stage, but it was all a farce to make us believe the other teams could beat them. Played us like a fiddle. Bastards 😂

Today's games are much worse than yesterday's. Yesterday there was at least some semblance of a struggle in certain moments of the match. But today everything looked like a training of professionals against amateurs. 20 minutes for the third game - what? Should we take this seriously? If the final is not super mega epic, then I would call this tournament a failure in terms of entertainment.

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Quote from: tomahawk9 on May 28, 2022, 06:12:07 AM

No matter how good we think NA or EU are, CN/KR are miles better than the them. It's crazy to see just how big the gap between those regions has grown over the year Sad

2-0 T1 and Faker is playing Akali which is OP in the hands of the goat so, 3-0 incoming :/

Here I am thinking that over the years, other regions have managed to grow stronger and match KR/CN on the world stage but no, these two regions still dominate the scene for almost a decade now. After their introduction to the game, they immediately got the grasp of how the game should be played, and the Western scene of the game kinda fell off in strategies and meta.

It's also worth noting that for 9 years, Faker is still dominating the scene with the same organization, and can still make top orgs look like newbies with his mechanical skill and the way he plays around the map.

As for G2, I can't blame them. They are also playing their best game of League for the most part, but they seem to fall off when faced with KR teams. :/

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No matter how good we think NA or EU are, CN/KR are miles better than the them. It's crazy to see just how big the gap between those regions has grown over the year Sad

2-0 T1 and Faker is playing Akali which is OP in the hands of the goat so, 3-0 incoming :/

Quote from: Boristhecat on May 28, 2022, 02:28:00 AM

A bet on total over 3.5 looks really like free money, it turns out that bookmakers are very likely to expect T1 to win with a score of 3-0? This is a big underestimation of G2.

Everyone expected G2 to go toe-to-toe against T1, especially after seeing the latter struggling in the group stage, but it was all a farce to make us believe the other teams could beat them. Played us like a fiddle. Bastards 😂

ralle14

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I'm on the opposite side, I think G2 will take one map at best and this is just based on how they performed during the rumble stage. Even though G2 manage to qualify and beat T1 once, at one point they had the chance to contest the second seed if it weren't for that poor second-half results. I also think over is a great pick but i'll go with T1 -1.5 expecting they'll perform much cleaner compared to what we saw during the rumble stage.

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Quote from: tomahawk9 on May 27, 2022, 02:39:40 PM

yeah that was the most predictable stomp in this tournament. The favorites to win the tournament versus NA in a best-of-5 Roll Eyes

btw, extremely unlikely RNG were following some kind of script, they were simply playing with their food in the last game (:

anyway, like i said the other day, i'm expecting a good showing from G2,

T1 found their mojo, but i think we can see the best G2 in the typical BO5 format. Over3.5 @1.5 is free money, but i'm biased towards G2. A lot of hype surrounding this match, hope it can deliver 🔥🔥

If we take into account the matches of the group stage, then RNG defeated EG 5 times in a row, the alignment of forces in this pair was obvious.
A bet on total over 3.5 looks really like free money, it turns out that bookmakers are very likely to expect T1 to win with a score of 3-0? This is a big underestimation of G2.

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Quote from: KTChampions on May 27, 2022, 01:57:42 PM

RNG 3 - 0 EG

Expected result, although EG at some points in the games even took the lead and it seemed that they would be able to take at least one map. In the third game, it seemed to me that RNG was deliberately trying to lose in order to stretch out the semi-final (probably the organizers are interested in this), but even in such conditions, the EG could not win.
I hope tomorrow's semi-final SKT1 - G2 will be much more competitive.

yeah that was the most predictable stomp in this tournament. The favorites to win the tournament versus NA in a best-of-5 Roll Eyes

btw, extremely unlikely RNG were following some kind of script, they were simply playing with their food in the last game (:

anyway, like i said the other day, i'm expecting a good showing from G2,

T1 found their mojo, but i think we can see the best G2 in the typical BO5 format. Over3.5 @1.5 is free money, but i'm biased towards G2. A lot of hype surrounding this match, hope it can deliver 🔥🔥

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RNG 3 - 0 EG

Expected result, although EG at some points in the games even took the lead and it seemed that they would be able to take at least one map. In the third game, it seemed to me that RNG was deliberately trying to lose in order to stretch out the semi-final (probably the organizers are interested in this), but even in such conditions, the EG could not win.
I hope tomorrow's semi-final SKT1 - G2 will be much more competitive.

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Quote from: Coin_trader on May 26, 2022, 11:34:47 AM

Quote from: sunsilk on May 25, 2022, 03:20:33 PM

Quote from: Lanatsa on May 24, 2022, 04:48:57 PM

If you are making that item on a normal rank game then people would really be laughing at you but for a tournament or major then everything could really be done and this is where OG outshines

I've done many crazy stuff in pubs and that's for sure that your teammates will surely report you if you're doing some not meta items and strategies.

But when a pro player starts to do that, that will be the start of it on pub games and it's going to be just like normal thing since everyone is just following the pros and the metas they create.

I don't think ATF only do this on the pro scene. He is known as troll on pubs so maybe he already experimented that shit before he use it on Majors Finals. They have coach to watch there item build during the game so I doubt that Notail will allow it if ATF don't know the outcome of that newly build item to that particular hero.

Player on SEA is worst than that and they are also very good on thrash talk and blaming when lose with the crazy build.

I don't know.

I'm not tracking their pub games so yeah, there's a chance that he did it first on pubs and experimented it there and also possible on scrims that they've made against other teams.

A practice game.

It's really possible that he did it before but it's not shown through private practice games.

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Quote from: KTChampions on May 26, 2022, 01:19:53 PM

In my opinion, such a bet is incredibly bad, since SKT1 is overvalued (IMHO, of course) and making a big bet for the sake of 18% profit is very unreasonable. I think that it is logical to bet on the outcomes of separate maps and, in case of loss, increase the bet. This is for SKT1 win strategy, it's hard to believe that they will lose 3-0.

I think I got used to seeing T1 having odds lower than 1.1 even in a bo5 that's why I said it's not that bad as the teams they faced in the LCK playoffs felt much more competitive compared to what G2 put out so far during the rumble stage. I agree with betting per map though as it's the best way to go whenever the drafting phase is finished.

Speaking of Dota, it's so interesting to see so many big teams making changes after the major. One of the interesting roster changes is QC picking up Leslao, MSS, and Fata.

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Quote from: ralle14 on May 26, 2022, 07:11:13 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on May 25, 2022, 01:49:26 PM

In my opinion, even EG is underestimated. It's still a team sport with some randomness, and I wouldn't risk betting on RNG for a 2 percent profit. As for the second pair, it also raises doubts - it seems that SKT1 will start the match with a handicap, but this is not so.

Looking at the match winner odds there's definitely not much value on the favorites but the total maps market is somewhat interesting as the over on RNG vs EG is at 2.50 while on the side of T1 vs G2 it's at 1.56 as I expect both series end in a 3-1 scoreline at the very minimum. Also, T1 to win @1.18 isn't that bad if you plan on taking the safest series winner pick and drop a big bet.

In my opinion, such a bet is incredibly bad, since SKT1 is overvalued (IMHO, of course) and making a big bet for the sake of 18% profit is very unreasonable. I think that it is logical to bet on the outcomes of separate maps and, in case of loss, increase the bet. This is for SKT1 win strategy, it's hard to believe that they will lose 3-0.

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Quote from: Coin_trader on May 26, 2022, 11:34:47 AM

Quote from: sunsilk on May 25, 2022, 03:20:33 PM

Quote from: Lanatsa on May 24, 2022, 04:48:57 PM

If you are making that item on a normal rank game then people would really be laughing at you but for a tournament or major then everything could really be done and this is where OG outshines

I've done many crazy stuff in pubs and that's for sure that your teammates will surely report you if you're doing some not meta items and strategies.

But when a pro player starts to do that, that will be the start of it on pub games and it's going to be just like normal thing since everyone is just following the pros and the metas they create.

I don't think ATF only do this on the pro scene. He is known as troll on pubs so maybe he already experimented that shit before he use it on Majors Finals. They have coach to watch there item build during the game so I doubt that Notail will allow it if ATF don't know the outcome of that newly build item to that particular hero.

Player on SEA is worst than that and they are also very good on thrash talk and blaming when lose with the crazy build.

Notail's literally the advocate of "everything can work" mentality and that's what we're seeing here right now for Ammar. It's also clever to use that extra cast range against a Night Stalker when his 2nd skill is activated. He can still stun the guy on his dragon form and even chase some hero and still get the skill casted. He 'played' around with NS 2nd skill mechanic, and it helped them win engagements later on in the game.

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For the Dota 2 community there's recent news shows up that the upcoming event the international will be held in Singapore sure tons of players now waiting for this event to have a Battle pass and Gaben will celebrate again for this huge amount of price pool, of course, another favour to us there's a lot of games and matches we can make a good bet but still, the risk bet too because some of the teams have a close fight.

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Quote from: sunsilk on May 25, 2022, 03:20:33 PM

Quote from: Lanatsa on May 24, 2022, 04:48:57 PM

If you are making that item on a normal rank game then people would really be laughing at you but for a tournament or major then everything could really be done and this is where OG outshines

I've done many crazy stuff in pubs and that's for sure that your teammates will surely report you if you're doing some not meta items and strategies.

But when a pro player starts to do that, that will be the start of it on pub games and it's going to be just like normal thing since everyone is just following the pros and the metas they create.

I don't think ATF only do this on the pro scene. He is known as troll on pubs so maybe he already experimented that shit before he use it on Majors Finals. They have coach to watch there item build during the game so I doubt that Notail will allow it if ATF don't know the outcome of that newly build item to that particular hero.

Player on SEA is worst than that and they are also very good on thrash talk and blaming when lose with the crazy build.

arallmuus

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Quote from: tomahawk9 on May 26, 2022, 08:07:56 AM

No dates for the Dota Pro Circuit series next month but i still added them.

The dates for 3rd DPC will be on 6th June - 17th July. After the DPC ended, we will have PGL Arlington Major in Texas scheduled to be held on between 4th-14th August* ( no fixed date yet for the Major but it should be between 4th to 14th August ). Soon after that we'll have The International on October which will be held on Singapore. Thats pretty much the schedule for Dota this season, we might have few lower tier tournament along the way but yeah this is pretty much it

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I've updated the Calendar in the OP! June in going to be packed, specially mid-june which is when the good stuff in csgo and LoL starts. No dates for the Dota Pro Circuit series next month but i still added them.

Quote from: ralle14 on May 26, 2022, 07:11:13 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on May 25, 2022, 01:49:26 PM

In my opinion, even EG is underestimated. It's still a team sport with some randomness, and I wouldn't risk betting on RNG for a 2 percent profit. As for the second pair, it also raises doubts - it seems that SKT1 will start the match with a handicap, but this is not so.

Looking at the match winner odds there's definitely not much value on the favorites but the total maps market is somewhat interesting as the over on RNG vs EG is at 2.50 while on the side of T1 vs G2 it's at 1.56 as I expect both series end in a 3-1 scoreline at the very minimum. Also, T1 to win @1.18 isn't that bad if you plan on taking the safest series winner pick and drop a big bet.

my predictions: RNG are going to 3-0 NA, and G2 are going to put up a fight but T1 will win. I agree there's good value in T1 -1.5, but I'll be taking G2 +1.5 and probably over 4.5, maybe i'm delusional but i'm expecting a close series

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Quote from: KTChampions on May 25, 2022, 01:49:26 PM

In my opinion, even EG is underestimated. It's still a team sport with some randomness, and I wouldn't risk betting on RNG for a 2 percent profit. As for the second pair, it also raises doubts - it seems that SKT1 will start the match with a handicap, but this is not so.

Looking at the match winner odds there's definitely not much value on the favorites but the total maps market is somewhat interesting as the over on RNG vs EG is at 2.50 while on the side of T1 vs G2 it's at 1.56 as I expect both series end in a 3-1 scoreline at the very minimum. Also, T1 to win @1.18 isn't that bad if you plan on taking the safest series winner pick and drop a big bet.

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Quote from: Lanatsa on May 24, 2022, 04:48:57 PM

If you are making that item on a normal rank game then people would really be laughing at you but for a tournament or major then everything could really be done and this is where OG outshines

I've done many crazy stuff in pubs and that's for sure that your teammates will surely report you if you're doing some not meta items and strategies.

But when a pro player starts to do that, that will be the start of it on pub games and it's going to be just like normal thing since everyone is just following the pros and the metas they create.

Topic: Esports Prediction & Discussion Thread - page 241. (Read 70226 times)