What will happen is those with the free ETC tokens won't be in a rush to cash them out - after all, they were free right? So they will sit on them and HODL, giving them some value.
While some are holding the line on their new ETC, a few other speculators might defect or decide to jump into ETC... Even if for the lulz. Eventually the trickle of bloody ETH going into ETC is gonna become a full blown epidemic as everyone starts a rush to cash out of the larger sibling and into the one that is growing non-stop.
I think ETC is gonna be a run away train, and I'm on board to the tune of a few bitcoins. Minimum situation? The two reach parity - one way or another. After that it's anyone's guess what happens.
I expect (oscillation around) parity as well. Balance seems stable from a Nash perspective.
There is room in the market for both versions, an immutable ETC for some applications and a mutable ETH for others.
This implies ETC is heavily undervalued. I am accumulating accordingly.
Vitalik really pissed off some institutional types. Barry Silbert and Kraken represent deep pockets, and are backing ETC to the hilt.
At least one ETH core dev is committed to supporting both forks, saying it's up to users (not devs) to decide which is better:
let’s make it clear that we (the ethereum developers) have never abandoned the old chain. The "Ethereum Classic" chain is just as much our child as the forked one, and if both of them survive (which is the users’ choice, not ours), then I intend to take care of them equally in the future too.Zsolt Felföldi is an ethereum developer working on the Go implementation of the ethereum protocol, sometimes called Geth.
http://www.coindesk.com/tale-two-chains-ethereum/ This ETH dev says which fork survives "is the users’ choice, not ours" but Chancellor Butarin believes he makes the law, passes the sentence, and should swing the sword.
