Topic: Eurovision 2024 bets (Read 534 times)

Croatia has been rising to the top again ever since the rehearsals.  It was only a matter of time before they claimed the #1 spot, which happened last night after the first semi-final recap was released.  Looking at the latest odds, we see big shifts since yesterday.  Croatia now sits atop the leaderboard, with bookies offering them between 3-3.25 odds to win Eurovision for the first time ever. 

Switzerland was knocked out of first place for once after holding strong there since March and  bets on Switzerland and Nemo winning are now between 3.75-4.5   

Italy also lost ground with Ukraine jumping past them quickly.  You can get around 6-7 odds if you think Angelina Mango has a shot, while bets on Ukraine winning are 4.5-5.5 now.

Here is the current odds table for top 10 favourites:

1. Croatia 3   
2. Switzerland 4   
3. Ukraine 5.5   
4. Italy 6.5   
5. Netherlands 10   
6. France 17
7. Israel 23   
8. Ireland 23   
9. Greece 34
10. United Kingdom 41   

I like when songs have hidden message, but I'm not really sure that it may help. If you look at average Eurovision viewers knows these details, most of them here song for the first time and then vote. It's more about hardcore fans.
Now looked at odds, it's changed a bit since I checked last time. Switzerland is ranked highest, personally don't like it at all.
But I see that most contraversial entry Israel is ranked not bad, they can reach top 10. There is lot of people against them, but at the same time I think they will get quite a lot support.

I think the Oscars are even more biased than the Eurovision song contest. Oscars are even more biased and ideologically seclined.

Oscars are made by the so called academy and they pick nearly exclusively American film. At least with the Eurovision people can be heard in the vote and the result isn't so much about showcasing a nationally superior image above everyone else as American films do so one sided in their world view.

Agreed, and i don't know how we could avoid politics here. Israel was fist rejected because their entry was too political, so they changed it... twice. In 2009 Georgia was kicked out because because they refused to change lyrics. Their entry was called "We Don't Wanna Put In".

And even though Eurovision sees themselves as apolitical platform, they can't avoid the fact that voters will be politically motivated, because countries in them can have conflicts with each other. Like long conflict with Russia and Ukraine or Armenia and Azerbaijan. Neighbouring countries without conflicts often support each other, so one could see that regionally political as well. Personally i see political angle as unavoidable and i really don't even care about it. It's not like songs can compete to be objectively best in any meaningful way anyway. Opinions are biased by politics, because everything really is politics.

The cheat sheet for who wins will be similar to the oscars, look for the theme.  We have a few wars ongoing at present etc.  so a peace theme might easily gain a global consensus which will secure the majority of votes over just a normal song that is ok in a pop way.   I reckon this is how it will go down this year especially with so many possibilities, they'll want some united positive type themed song and on average it will collect the most votes.


Remote as Israel might seem from Europe, the troubles ongoing will be a part of this contest so some discussion around this is inevitably going to occur.  Hence I do think some peace type anthem wins or some similar theme.

4.8m views Hurricane.   I like it tbh so post if theres a better song -  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJYn09tuPw4

Well, I just read this Reddit post discussing hidden meaning in the Eurovision entry from Greece .  Honestly pretty intriguing stuff - I'm a sucker for Eurovision songs that make you think beyond just boppin' your head to a catchy beat and  seems a lot of times the straight up pop bangers take the cake, but this Greek tune is sparking some neat discussions apparently.  Makes me curious if this Zari track might shock people! Cause in Eurovision, heck - wild things can happen outta nowhere. 

In Greece there's been a viral reddit post going around where the author claimed to have cracked the code about what our entry's song actually means.

At first Zari sounds like a lovesong but when you look at the video and also then go back to the lyrics it makes more sense. Basically the video is kitsch depictions of recent Greek events that were overproduced such as the euro 2004 Greece win. Past glories in Short. All these are in proud display in the video and a tourist is shown in a rally car touring Greece.

According to that poster's analysis basically the meaning of the song is that while tourists come here to have fun, and we kinda depend on them because it's become our biggest industry, also we're suffering because of very high rent, low wages and even drinking water shortages due to tourism. Where the song says "I pretend I forget your aroma" it's an analogy to what we could achieve if we break from certain boundaries set on us by forgetting what we know, which is symbolic also because it's impossible to erase the memory of a smell as the human mind holds it forever. But if Marina can forget an aroma, maybe a country could overcome its burdens too.

It's a very weird discourse but the supposed hidden meaning of the song. But it has overall increased the popularity of the song locally. Not sure if this local vitality can translate to success in the competition also though.

The competition to win Eurovision is starting to get intense, and you can see it in how the betting odds are changing! Based on the latest from Eurovisionworld, Switzerland's got the best chance right now with "The Code" by Nemo.  Not far behind them is Croatia's "Rim Tim Tagi Dim" by Baby Lasagna, and the Netherlands is in third with "Europapa" by Joost Klein.   

Of course just because they're on top now doesnt mean they'll stay there.  Italy is in a close fourth, at the moment. And it's never smart to fully count out Ukraine either.

Things are still wide open!

Here is the current odds table for top 10 favourites:

1. Switzerland 2.88   
2. Croatia 4.5   
3. Netherlands 4.5   
4. Italy 7   
5. Ukraine 11   
6. France 17
7. Israel 29   
8. Greece 29
9. Ireland 34   
10. Belgium 101   

I think Swiss will win it this year because they already had a great chance 2 years ago to win it but they ended on 3rd place I think and that was the first sign for me that Swiss is finally bringing super talented singers in order to win the trophy so no wonder why the bookies are favoring them here.

However, everything can change when we have the finals songs ready and I'm sure odds will change as well.

I could agree with you but if they are as nasty as you say, people through televotes and juries won't vote for them and they will get a severe loss. I'm quite surprising to not see Netherlands at a better rank while they've got a huge amount of streaming on Spotify. And I wonder why bookmakers don't take that into account, do they think those numbers are fake? That is to say bots are listening them actually in order to inflate the figures.

Sorry if this might be too political but I am surprised that Israel was allowed to join in the end. a country who is indiscriminately killing women, children, humanitarian aid workers, etc... sand is being brought to court for war crimes hould not be allowed to join.

I feel like Netherlands will be a strong contender, they have a catchy song and is gaining a lot of traction in the social media.

Yeah, Switzerland's moved to #1 on the betting odds, but I ain't buying it.  They might crack the top 10 at best in my book and  the song's got some good parts, but other bits and the whole performance is just too out there for me.  I dunno, weirdness is what some folks dig but I figure Croatias still got the edge with the televoters.  Could come down to the jury messing stuff up in the end though.

Seems like the tables have turned a bit:


Now Switzerland is first on the odds and Croatia and Italy follow closely.
In my opinion Switzerland surely has an interesting song but is it deserving of the win? Dunno.
I think Switzerland is in a bit of a tough spot because there's little to no regional alliance that will give them many max point votes. Like who do you have in mind giving Switzerland 12 point votes?
Germany? Austria? I'm sure not France because while there's a French speaking part but from what I'm aware most French people dislike them quite a bit.

Sad a song contest works like this but what can you do.

Speaking of actual songs though and not politics, Switzerland's song maybe was the last to be announced officially? Good strategy maybe as they're now first on the odds. The song has a breakdown which to me is a big lackluster for all the buildup, but the vocals lyrics and composition are very good and the ones that wrote the song must also be very talented as is the singer. I'm sure he could see some success even outside of eurovision, unlike many one shot artists in it

You should be careful because sometimes some songs perform really poorly during the contest but after it, they encounter a nice success. In 2022 it has been the case with Rosa Linn from Armenia and her song SNAP. The song had a great success through Europe and around the world but she only ranked at the 20th position during the competition.
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Yeah, I still remember this song - I hear it on radio quite often, probably more frequent than some songs which won in recent years. And in general, some songs which perform quite poorly in Eurovision is getting lot attention on Spotify, radio charts and etc.
But usually bookmers don't make mistakes with picking main favorites.

You should be careful because sometimes some songs perform really poorly during the contest but after it, they encounter a nice success. In 2022 it has been the case with Rosa Linn from Armenia and her song SNAP. The song had a great success through Europe and around the world but she only ranked at the 20th position during the competition.

I did not expect Angelina Mango to surge into second place.  I enjoy her song La noia but Im not sure it has Eurovision winner written on it.

Croatia and Baby Lasagna still holding the top spot, fascinating! Is it just a catchy beat or the novelty aspect hooking people? Either way, it's definitely stirring up the competition.

Seeing Ukraine knocked out bummed me out - Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil were my dark horse picks.

Anyone else surprised by the current standings? What do you think are Angelina's odds to win it all?

Dunno maybe I'm romanticizing things but I remember that in past competitions there used to be more than one favorites, plenty of songs that were objectively good and fit several styles. And quite often an outlier would win too. The quality of the competition has degraded a bit lately. Not only is it less entertaining to watch but also songs are soooo forgettable. Most Eurovision songs that are remembered as "good" are from many years ago. And it's a challenge to remember the lyrics or the beat of many entries, as it was the norm though.

This year's favorite being croatia surely is a different style than the rest, and this electro-rock style is favored lately but certainly it wasn't very noteworthy. So yes I think this year is going to be one of these years where the favorite for betting doesn't come first.

I wouldn't say that Eurovision is highly unpredictable. As far as I remember in several recent years main favorite always won. In 3 recent years Italy, Ukraine or Sweden were highly favoured and won. Now situation is a bit different because Croatia isn't so highly favoured against other countries, we have several strong contenders.
It's also worth betting on which countries will reach final. But when it comes h2h betting, it's getting more difficult.

I would say, betting on this kind of contest is very risky especially if you are not very familiar with the talents of each contestant. Better watch the show and not bet on this type of event. Also, there may be local/fiat betting sites that may offer odds but for crypto betting sites, I don't think so.

I found the current odds from several betting sites, and they are giving the percent chance of who will be the winner. But my take on this - sometimes it depends on the taste of the judges and the audience. How this contest will pan out during the finals.

https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision

I think what many people don't realize with Eurovision is how unpredictable it can be. On the one hand croatia has an addictive song which seems to be a reliable motif based on which a song can do really well in the contest, but that's not nearly close to the top of what's most important.

I think many things will be judged last minute, for instance as there's heightened political tension around certain issues at the moment, many people will be looking for a sign to express their opinion through their vote. I bet that if any country's delegation flashes the Palestinian flag even for a moment, lots of people would be motivated to vote regardless of song. And that's a factor many people don't seem to be taking into account. So for me Croatia dominating the odds with no second best close to it only makes it more attractive to bet on countries with smaller win chances at the moment.