The cheat sheet for who wins will be similar to the oscars, look for the theme. We have a few wars ongoing at present etc. so a peace theme might easily gain a global consensus which will secure the majority of votes over just a normal song that is ok in a pop way. I reckon this is how it will go down this year especially with so many possibilities, they'll want some unite type themed song.
I think the Oscars are even more biased than the Eurovision song contest. Oscars are even more biased and ideologically seclined.
Oscars are made by the so called academy and they pick nearly exclusively American film. At least with the Eurovision people can be heard in the vote and the result isn't so much about showcasing a nationally superior image above everyone else as American films do so one sided in their world view.
I am not so sure about that. Depends what you mean by being "more biased and ideologically seclined". Both of them try to stay apolitical, but i am pretty sure an oscar winner won't be discualifed if someone wears palestinian flag colors as a form of support, or a maga hat while picking the prize. Also politcs are impossible to avoid in movies.
Eurovision on the other hand wouldn't accept anything that sort behavior from the bands. And by applying strict restrictions political statements or slogans aren't allowed, they are actually setting rules on which political issues are allowed, as everything is politics.
I guess their reasoning is to avoid people using that as their propaganda tool. But it's really vague what they mean by political statement. Is not eating meat, or eating meat one of them? Or what kind of relationships people are allowed to have? Imho it's just based on judges feelings on the subject. What they like, and what they don't like to see. Just like in Oscars.
Anyway, it's starting soon. I wish i could bet on how many protests there are going to be.