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Topic: Everything except the price trend is going fantastic - page 4. (Read 9706 times)

hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 500
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USD has a inflation of 10%?

No.  Bitcoin has an inflation rate of 10%


Ok, you mean that in a year there will be 10% more bitcoins.
That is not really inflation. That is nothing someone who bough Bitcoin really bothers.
But I see, you like to play with numbers, and make stupid conclusion. It is the same as taking some numbers from the bible, play with them and than telling everybody that the world ends at a certain date.

Edit:
Just to show, how stupid your assumption is. "value flown into bitcoin" is definitly not, what people paid on exchanges for Bitcoins. You have to take mining equipment and electricity into account.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
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USD has a inflation of 10%?

No.  Bitcoin has an inflation rate of 10%

hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 500
I don't understand why the price is still in the same range, although more people starts to use bitcoin and more merchants accept it. Is this due to exchanges or people with lots of bitcoins making profit on the small rise and then dump it etc?

If someone could explain it shortly, would be great!

Let us not forget that there is an inflation of 10% going on.  That means that the bitcoin holdings must grow at a 10% rate at the current price.

The market cap is a wrong indication of "how much value" there is stored in bitcoin.  In reality, the amount of value people have put into bitcoin is much less.  Many coins have been sold and are still held since they were a few dollars or a few tens of dollars.  So in order to sustain an inflation at 10% at the current price, means actually that the real value flowing into bitcoin is very big as compared to the past. 
As a simplistic example, suppose that most coins have been bought at an average price of $100.-
That means that the actual "value flown into bitcoin" would be rather $1.5 billion.  At the current price, say, $350 per coin, and an inflation rate of 10%, this comes actually down to a growth of the value flowing into bitcoin of 35% per year.
In other words, even to sustain the current price, per year, one third of the total value that has flown into bitcoin since 5 years, must flow again in bitcoin even to sustain the current price.
A growth of 35% a year is HUGE, and is needed to sustain the current price, simply due to inflation.

USD has a inflation of 10%?
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
Let me explain this for once. I am drunk after a great night out so let me be condescending about it.
The fact is, theire is a bunch of people out there that exchange bitcoins on-chain no matter what the USD price of a bitcoin is. They make the estimated USD transaction volume.
Now, you can speculate about their motives. They clearly don't care as much as this forum does about volatility. Be it the drugs markets, be it remittances, we don't know fur sure. We don't care either. What we care about is that the on-chain transaction volume is growing steadily.
That means that the price of a bitcoin, sooner or later, will have to catch up with that information, because bitcoins are a finite resource with predictable supply, and because money velocity.

Ignore this post at your own risk.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1205
The overall 2-year trend resumed in May:


Much better overall view
full member
Activity: 123
Merit: 100
I don't understand why the price is still in the same range, although more people starts to use bitcoin and more merchants accept it. Is this due to exchanges or people with lots of bitcoins making profit on the small rise and then dump it etc?

If someone could explain it shortly, would be great!

Let us not forget that there is an inflation of 10% going on.  That means that the bitcoin holdings must grow at a 10% rate at the current price.

The market cap is a wrong indication of "how much value" there is stored in bitcoin.  In reality, the amount of value people have put into bitcoin is much less.  Many coins have been sold and are still held since they were a few dollars or a few tens of dollars.  So in order to sustain an inflation at 10% at the current price, means actually that the real value flowing into bitcoin is very big as compared to the past. 
As a simplistic example, suppose that most coins have been bought at an average price of $100.-
That means that the actual "value flown into bitcoin" would be rather $1.5 billion.  At the current price, say, $350 per coin, and an inflation rate of 10%, this comes actually down to a growth of the value flowing into bitcoin of 35% per year.
In other words, even to sustain the current price, per year, one third of the total value that has flown into bitcoin since 5 years, must flow again in bitcoin even to sustain the current price.
A growth of 35% a year is HUGE, and is needed to sustain the current price, simply due to inflation.


So when do we get out of this price range and it starts to rise?
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
The overall 2-year trend resumed in May:
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 629

It is perfectly reasonable for someone to hold for a long period of time when you consider the possibility that the value stored appreciates over time.

No one here is suggesting people will hoard their money infinitely

Of course.  But at a certain point, the number of new holders must come into equilibrium with the number of holders not holding anymore.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 629
I don't understand why the price is still in the same range, although more people starts to use bitcoin and more merchants accept it. Is this due to exchanges or people with lots of bitcoins making profit on the small rise and then dump it etc?

If someone could explain it shortly, would be great!

Let us not forget that there is an inflation of 10% going on.  That means that the bitcoin holdings must grow at a 10% rate at the current price.

The market cap is a wrong indication of "how much value" there is stored in bitcoin.  In reality, the amount of value people have put into bitcoin is much less.  Many coins have been sold and are still held since they were a few dollars or a few tens of dollars.  So in order to sustain an inflation at 10% at the current price, means actually that the real value flowing into bitcoin is very big as compared to the past. 
As a simplistic example, suppose that most coins have been bought at an average price of $100.-
That means that the actual "value flown into bitcoin" would be rather $1.5 billion.  At the current price, say, $350 per coin, and an inflation rate of 10%, this comes actually down to a growth of the value flowing into bitcoin of 35% per year.
In other words, even to sustain the current price, per year, one third of the total value that has flown into bitcoin since 5 years, must flow again in bitcoin even to sustain the current price.
A growth of 35% a year is HUGE, and is needed to sustain the current price, simply due to inflation.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 504
Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks
The supply is not the newly minted coins, it is the coins that people decide they do not want to hold, miners and normal beings alike.

Indeed.  At a certain point, most coins should become "liquid" again.  A store of value which is never claimed doesn't make sense.
Everybody storing value for a purpose, needs to use that value some day, otherwise it doesn't make sense.
Keeping forever is the same as loosing the stored value.  It would be equivalent to "hide" gold on the bottom of the Atlantic ocean by throwing it overboard, by burning fiat, or by erasing your private keys.

It is perfectly reasonable for someone to hold for a long period of time when you consider the possibility that the value stored appreciates over time.

No one here is suggesting people will hoard their money infinitely
full member
Activity: 123
Merit: 100
I don't understand why the price is still in the same range, although more people starts to use bitcoin and more merchants accept it. Is this due to exchanges or people with lots of bitcoins making profit on the small rise and then dump it etc?

If someone could explain it shortly, would be great!
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 629
The supply is not the newly minted coins, it is the coins that people decide they do not want to hold, miners and normal beings alike.

Indeed.  At a certain point, most coins should become "liquid" again.  A store of value which is never claimed doesn't make sense.
Everybody storing value for a purpose, needs to use that value some day, otherwise it doesn't make sense.
Keeping forever is the same as loosing the stored value.  It would be equivalent to "hide" gold on the bottom of the Atlantic ocean by throwing it overboard, by burning fiat, or by erasing your private keys.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
If you look at other metrics you see, that the BTC-economy is growing.

That's what I say and that what feels weird because if the btc-economy grows and the btc supply is the sameone then the price should go up, or at least that's my opinion (I realised I don't understand economy at all).


This is partly a good thing though, because people were bitching and moaning about stability a lot before
Yes, I think so. Anyway, more volume (more buy/sell transactions) sounds as bigger market (more capital) and provably a bigger demand.  

It will be interesting to see what happens during the stock market crash that is inevitably going to happen.
Do you have a link to read about that? Or could you explain yourself a bit more, please?



The supply is not the newly minted coins, it is the coins that people decide they do not want to hold, miners and normal beings alike.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
Nagle,

Quite strange you chose those start and end dates. Are you expecting USD transaction volume to be higher at the end of a prolonged bear market than it was at the previous manic top? Ridiculous.

Why not view the all time log chart for a better picture of transaction volume (easy to do just click the options at the bottom).

It shows a clear steady up trend.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
What's happened is since the last rise a lot more trade volume has entered the market.



No, a lot more trade volume has not entered the market.

What I see is in that graph is a U-shaped long bottom in the making.
Go figure. Different people, different conclusions.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
What's happened is since the last rise a lot more trade volume has entered the market.



No, a lot more trade volume has not entered the market.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
...
Why would you make more than one transaction for a purchase? The values might come from different addresses, which resembles you metaphor of 10 10$ bills.

Because I control more than one address?  Because tx fees are ridiculously small?  Because it costs nothing to create an addy?
Why wouldn't I, considering that folks like you equate # of transactions with influx of users?  Profit.
If you want to make fake data, you can also just send the same amount forward and back between two addresses to increase USD volume. That doesn't make that metric better in any way.

Sure.  Are you suggesting that the USD volume data could also be manipulated and likely is?
I'm with you on that one, brah Undecided

@inca:  Your prognosticatin' skillz in this thread are on par with your ability to read the market. 
I don't think, anybody does this in a large enough scale to really have a significant impact on the statistics.
People often tell me that all statistics/studies are fake, when a statistic/study doesn't fit their gut instinct, but sorry, the statistic/case study is still better than your gut instinct.
When all media, all statistic, all studies are fake, on what do you base your opinion/knowledge? Conspiracy theory sites on the internet?


You asked me why I would do X, I have answered you.
Without thanking me, you went on to offer other means of manipulating data.  I have agreed with you.
Now you're suggesting I'm a conspiracy theorist Sad
I'm not saying the statistics are fake, only that they don't mean what you think they mean.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 500
...
Why would you make more than one transaction for a purchase? The values might come from different addresses, which resembles you metaphor of 10 10$ bills.

Because I control more than one address?  Because tx fees are ridiculously small?  Because it costs nothing to create an addy?
Why wouldn't I, considering that folks like you equate # of transactions with influx of users?  Profit.
If you want to make fake data, you can also just send the same amount forward and back between two addresses to increase USD volume. That doesn't make that metric better in any way.

Sure.  Are you suggesting that the USD volume data could also be manipulated and likely is?
I'm with you on that one, brah Undecided

@inca:  Your prognosticatin' skillz in this thread are on par with your ability to read the market. 
I don't think, anybody does this in a large enough scale to really have a significant impact on the statistics.
People often tell me that all statistics/studies are fake, when a statistic/study doesn't fit their gut instinct, but sorry, the statistic/case study is still better than your gut instinct.
When all media, all statistic, all studies are fake, on what do you base your opinion/knowledge? Conspiracy theory sites on the internet?
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
...
Why would you make more than one transaction for a purchase? The values might come from different addresses, which resembles you metaphor of 10 10$ bills.

Because I control more than one address?  Because tx fees are ridiculously small?  Because it costs nothing to create an addy?
Why wouldn't I, considering that folks like you equate # of transactions with influx of users?  Profit.
If you want to make fake data, you can also just send the same amount forward and back between two addresses to increase USD volume. That doesn't make that metric better in any way.

Sure.  Are you suggesting that the USD volume data could also be manipulated and likely is?
I'm with you on that one, brah Undecided

@inca:  Your prognosticatin' skillz in this thread are on par with your ability to read the market. 
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
...
Why would you make more than one transaction for a purchase? The values might come from different addresses, which resembles you metaphor of 10 10$ bills.

Because I control more than one address?  Because tx fees are ridiculously small?  Because it costs nothing to create an addy?
Why wouldn't I, considering that folks like you equate # of transactions with influx of users?  Profit.
If you want to make fake data, you can also just send the same amount forward and back between two addresses to increase USD volume. That doesn't make that metric better in any way.

Don't expect a reply to that rebuttal Smiley
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