It does not need to be the approval of Grayscale's ETF, I reckon it will be any ETF because the approval of 1 will be the approval of much of them.
once one gets approved, all the others will update their applications using a copy of the accepted template. thus fast approval
Could be.
i still think blackrock will get approved before grayscale as the
could be
SEC wil wait for the appeals court to release guideance on what is an what is not an acceptable reason to decline, so they can use that specific reason to decline grayscale again
I am having trouble with your expectations regarding what the Appeals court is going to be doing in its guidance.
They already told the SEC that it has failed to provide any kind of a reason and so therefore the Appeals court has told the SEC and the world that the SEC's failure to provide an any kind of a reason that is not arbitrary/capricious is insufficient.
Why would the guideline tell the SEC what a good reason might be? That makes no sense.
Generally speaking the precedence that comes from the Chevron case, I believe, is that agencies have a wide range of reasonableness and courts are not going to second guess them as long as they provide a reason and any reason that does not devolve into arbitrary/capricious or otherwise in violation of various public policy norms.. Now that the court has proclaimed that the SEC had already acted arbitrary/capricious, the SEC has to come up with some kind of a reason that makes sense in the context of things rather than making it seem that they are just making shit up.. and why would the court give them guidance in regards to how to do their job in terms of thse kinds of matters, does not make a lot of sense to me.
Chevron remains the standard but the SEC already got themselves into a bit of a pickle by what the court had already ruled their behavior to be, which is arbitrary/capricious and really lacking any kind of a reasonableness .. and the court would not even need to agree with the SECs reasons as long as they can come up with something that makes some kind of sense and does not devolve into again being arbitrary, capricious or in violation of some other public policy norms.
Your overall point about the possible stalling tactics of the SEC to use the muddiness of trying to figure out what to do might be enough of a reason to grant Blackrock (and maybe others) before Grayscale, even though that could end up getting them into trouble if it appears that delay Greyscale is a kind of retaliation rather than also having some kind of rational basis that makes some kind of sense in the whole scheme of things.
right now with grayscale and DCG in hot water due to the whole genesis, gemini, FTX saga. i dont see how SEC can see confidence in grayscales fund management.. where as blackrock has decades of experience
Yes, it seems reasonable that the SEC could have some doubts in regards to a lot of the outstanding and ongoing litigation around DCG... and they likely need to attempt to take that into account in one direction or another, which could cause some uncertainties in terms of approving Grayscale.. .. so surely there remains ongoing uncertainties regarding how the SEC might end up playing these various matters in light of a variety of deadlines... and they likely already have some ideas where they want to go.. but then various court rulings do have to be taken into account and sometimes even some of the new applications that relate to Ethereum products (not wanting to necessarily consider that the shitcoins are any kind of a major factor even though, we cannot always know how the SEC might relate these various products, litigations and applications in order to justify what it is that they are doing, what they are saying they are doing and/or planning to do)
