the reason i say about stop hoping for spot approval in 2023.. because the only people wanting it are impatient people hoping for market reaction..
most bitcoins want to hold bitcoin not shares, so most bitcoins excited about ETF approvals are not exaggerating how soon a approval will happen for the ability to themselves buy shares. but instead they want it soon to see markets reaction...
I kind of agree with you even though I find your way of saying it as a bit patronizing and maybe even overly generalizing.
i have not, dont and wont do ass-kissery, hug a newbie games... dont take it personally, most of the time although i say the "you" word when quoting someone. i also recognise that hundreds of other people read these topics too, so it can apply to them too if they had similar opinions. so its not always pointing at the person i quote but others reading it that have similar idea's
I am tending not to take any of it personally, so I otherwise stand by what I already stated, even if you are saying that you are trying NOT to either be patronizing or overlygeneralizing.. so no problem... I just pointed out what I had sensed in that part of what I was responding to.
but when forum topics do have their facts straight there's nothing i need to add to the topic, i mostly get involved in adding in details that are either incorrect or lack the finer detail.
most friendly styles of messaging is less about facts and more about trying to win someones trust to say any BS. and i find that tactic even worse than my direct approach
I find that sometimes you are trying to suggest that you have superior handles on facts and logic, so that can be a bit irritating.. but no problem, I will try to stick with the topic, but it is difficult to resist when you are making those kinds of claims to superior knowledge.. it just seems unnecessary, even if it might be true from time to time.
there are differences between people who directly hold BTC and people who get exposure through markets through third parties or even if there might be pension plans and retirement accounts that are able to buy third party offered products and not able to buy BTC directly.
For sure, there are a lot of potential disadvantages to having so many BIG players starting to hold BTC for people and those people NOT being able to take direct possession of such BTC unless they sell their share(s) and buy the BTC directly. So, surely there are a lot of possibilities that open up for shenanigans, and it is unclear if some of them will end up getting reckt if they are not HOLDING the underlying BTC,
thats why the SEC doesnt want to make mistakes and less likely to broadstroke approve several in one go
Yes, and it would be a mistake to select the winner as Blackrock only, even if they might be superior. The market can choose in regards to which product is superior as long as each of the products have mechanisms in place that protect consumers in regards to rug pulling, price manipulation, lack of truthful disclosures or whatever it is that the SEC is supposed trying to protect when it comes to different ways that the various ETF applicants might set up their ETF and try to distinguish themselves from other players.. whether it is fees or liquidity or some other kind of term/service that they might offer.
but then when it comes time for making certain kinds of votes about BTC and/or forks, then the fact that BTC are actually held by entities rather than individuals, some of the BTC incentives could end up getting perverted by such dynamics of normies putting value into BTC so that Blackrock (and some other larger players) can hold and/or control potentially large quantities of BTC and the forks off of such BTC.
when it comes to development/fork decisions. who holds more coin doesnt matter.. its who owns the most economic nodes(services) and who owns most successful mining pools.. that what chooses the vote.. and with added sponsorship of devs to add features that align to a corporations mission.. that pushes things more then how many thousands of coin they custodianised
You are not saying anything that I don't already know, and my main reason for bringing it up is in regards to some financial motivations that might sometimes end up existing if someone else holds the keys and they might not be obligated to share forks or to recognize forks, which may well end up having ramifications on customers.
We both should agree that clients would buy shares are entering into a kind of contractual relationship that likely is not going to allow them to directly and immediately take possession of coins, so it can surely become problematic for anyone who does not have possession of coins and their is a limited supply and they might consider that they have a lot of coins (let's say 100k coins), and then some kind of drama happens and they might not be able to get what they thought was their coins... we have enough examples with these kinds of problems in the last year and a half, so why should I have to point out more potential products even though we would be dealing with a different kind of product when referring to a spot ETF as compared with an exchange and some of the things that they were doing and other kinds of third parties who either did not end up having the coins or they were engaging in questionable practiced with what coins they did have.
It might not be clear how many years it might take before some of the dynamics of bitcoin ends up being perverted, especially since legislators are already trying to proclaim that BTC is ONLY valid if it is held by third parties, and those kinds of dynamics could cause quite a bit of challenges for various individual BTC HODLers...
There are likely going to be continued informational campaigns regarding the value of BTC self-custody. and so it is difficult to see in advance how self-custody versus third party custody is going to end up playing out with the passage of time.
the US regulations/proposals are not even suggesting self-custody is bad.. thats just the mis-representations of a few of the mixer crowd not liking that their affiliated service is in hot water so they are trying to pretend the whole bitcoin ecosystem is at threat to garner support for a cause they dont even understand
These are moving targets and it is not just specifically US regulatory proposals that I am referring to. There are various patterns of demonizing self-custody and trying to put restrictions on it, and I cannot help you if you do not recognize some of those attempts to control BTC and to scare people from getting involved in BTC. Sure there are some times exaggerations and misunderstandings about what is happening, what has been passed, proposed or what is likely to pass and what might happen if it is passed. Sometimes the exchanges will impose their own restrictions based on waht they think might be required later.. for example the recent announcement of a Gemini rule in the UK that withdrawals/deposits can ONLY be with authorized services... which seems to be an attack on direct BTC transactions with the exchange... even if they might not immediately enforce it, there are all kinds of those kinds of examples of restrictions that I could describe and you are blind if you believe none of that is happening and/or it is not "significant" enough to matter.
as for thinking 12 will get approved at same time. that again is a pipe dream.. half the applications dont meet all specifications.. so they are not all going to get approved at same time.. at best id say 4.. but personally id say 1
We can agree to disagree, and I am not going to claim to have had studied the details of the various offerings.. but maybe we could make a bet.. and if more than 6 get approved, then I win... hahahahahaha.. I am not really willing to bet very much, but it could be fun, even though we would need to find a mutually agreeable escrow and otherwise work out the terms... which I might end up getting screwed if I am not even very comfortable with my somewhat SOMA speculations in this direction.
i dont bet, gamble or trade on this forum. nice try though
Could make it interesting, and I am not even referring to any need for any significant amount. There is another possibility of setting the terms of the bet, and it would not need to be money but instead could just be something non-monetary. I have probably proposed more than 10 bets, but I cannot ever recall being able to work through the details of the bet in such a way that the terms were clear and the bet was actually entered into.
[edited out]
news/social drama pumping is temporary.. those are pump and dumps..
actual lumpsum buying and hoarding to then collateralise to give shares for pension investors to buy and hoard shares for years.. where those shares are not sold back into baskets to unlock bitcoin again.. those types of events are the value riser stuff i look for.. things that keep prices up so the next 'bottom' is higher then last bottom.. the next top is higher then the last. im not interested in the daily whims of news speculation temporary pump and dumps
i dont do day trading any more.. i just hoard and play it long. i look for the actual events that cause long term change good/bad. i dont value my hoard in the daily whims of media
We are probably not very different in regards to how you seem to be maintaining your stash, even though my techniques are a little bit different from yours, I still consider that I am not playing news and/or sentiment, and largely I established most of my BTC position in 2014 and 2015.. so I have largely been in maintenance stage rather than accumulation stage since then - while at the same time, I do have my practice of selling on the way up and buying on the way down,
but I hardly consider any of that to be changed by the news.. even though there will be times in which I will identify certain price ranges that I believe are either resistance or support or that I might be consider to be pass through areas, so sometimes I might adjust some of my orders in those ranges once I have identified them, but it tends to be tweaks rather than any large changes, and also it keeps the overall dynamic of selling on the way up and buying on the way down.. and surely some day there might be some event (or BTC price movement) that happens that triggers me to whimsically take some kind of a buy or a sell action that I had not previously planned on doing.. and those kinds of things have happened a few times in my BTC history, but so far it seems that those kinds of triggering things happened outside of bitcoin rather than anything in regards to bitcoin or bitcoin price movements.
So for example, if the BTC price were to shoot up from our current price of $37.4K-ish to about $374k in a relatively short period of time (let's say less than a year), I might choose to sell a bit higher percentage of my BTC than what is in my usual allocation BTC sales that tends to be no more than 10% sales for every doubling of the BTC price.... and frequently it seems that my levels of sales is even lower than that... It seems to be something like 5% for every doubling of the BTC price.. even though I know that I am allowed and authorized to sell up to 10% for every doubling, and even deeper down, by just doing the math, many of us likely realize that if the BTC price doubles, then our profits have gone up 50%..
So for example if we have 10 BTC and the price goes from $30k to $60k, then the value of our BTC holdings has gone from $300k to $600k, so usually at the price of $60k per BTC, if I were to have 10 BTC, I would be authorized to sell up to $60k (1 BTC), but usually I am selling more like $30k (0.5 BTC), and some people would be tempted to sell half of their BTC at $60k which would be 5 BTC and $300k in profits, but part of the problem with that is those guys end up losing a lot of the power of the compounding effects of bitcoin, so all the way from 2015 when the BTC price was $250, it had doubled at least 8 times.
1) $250 to $500
2) $500 to $1,000
3) $1,000 to $2,000
4) $2,000 to $4,000
5) $4,000 to $8,000
6) $8,000 to $16,000
7) $16,000 to $32,000
8 ) $32,000 to $64,000
9) $64,000 to $128,000
And, even though the BTC price was in the start of the 9th doubling, we regressed back into the top of the 6th doubling, but then we can imagine a difference if we were to take out all of the profits each of the times, then our BTC portfolio would not have advantaged from the compounding effects, but if we take out somewhere between 5% and 10%, we still have a remaining 40% to 45% of the profits that rollover and add to the profits for the next time around with a kind of compounding effect that has already happened 7 to 8 times for anyone who had mostly been holding their BTC since 2015 and allowed most of their BTC to compound rather than pulling out a higher percentage of their profits along the way.
Sure, we never know which way the BTC price is going to go and/or whether we might be able to benefit from the compounding effects that are possible in BTC and that have significantly and materially happened over the years.. even though there might be times that some of us might be worried about how BIG is the correction and whether the BTC price is going to recover after it had corrected so greatly. So I guess that I am saying that systems can be put into place to try to take advantage of the price going up and even benefiting from the price going down too.. yet anyone who had gotten into BTC in more recent times would be starting out with higher numbers and they might have troubles going through as many doublings as someone who had gotten into BTC at earlier times.