Topic: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask! - page 6. (Read 17106 times)

Also, they want to avoid the GBTC risk of no go on the first date. They made good money with GBTC shares, and there is no point of simultaneously finance a competitor, and risk a discount widening in case of SEC denial.
I wouldn't read too much into this move, frankly.

cathie woods also had SEC communication whereby if she believes her ETF is not able to operate in january there is no point submitting more filings at the end of december. so by her submitting the forms in late december needed to finalise the conditions she is pretty much stating she is ready to roll

so yes grabbing cash out of other investments to then seed her own is good business

Well, this would explain why Cathie Wood was selling recently. She could have even more insider info than Balchunas.

first of all after the approval and even now pre approval, people cant buy one grayscale share and then convert it to 0.00089445 real btc
"grayscale customers" never have nor will get that ability. before or after approval

the whole SEC regulation about "in-cash" is about BASKETS(allotments) of shares being managed by agents(fund managers(authorised participants)) dissolving a basket of shares and get the reciprocal coins unlocked where the custodian then sales on OTC/darkpool by which the agents then get cash from custodian

again an ETF is never going to be where "customers" get to swap shares for sats

.. secondly
im not a fan of blackrock. however i recognise their playbook
if you see how blackrock is doing BIG deals in land grabs of eastern ukraine. you will notice they are big players in investments and deals. they have history. and that cant be ignored

though grayscale has been a bitcoin associated brand for nearly a decade and blackrock are only toddlers in the crypto market. blackrocks financial experience of ETF approvals is not something to ignore. and grayscales crypto involvement is not something to inflate as superior in regards to SEC decisions

thirdly
im not the one creating deadlines
for instance
ARK21 FINAL deadline is jan 10th

but the others just have interim deadlines
and like i said hashdex and franklin both had interim deadlines of JANUARY FIRST.. but they didnt get approved
so with bitwise(jan 14th) blackrock(jan 15th) INTERIM(NOT FINAL) there is a chance SEC may deny ARK21 on the 10th and then delay the rest until their final deadlines of march-june

that said.. i said chance..
with SEC not just communicating with CBOE for arks approval but also nasdaq and nyse for the others. there is chance of SOME approvals at ark21's deadline.. but its not set in stone, proven, guaranteed

In regards to Grayscale, I personally believe that SEC is already punishing them quite severely by insisting upon "cash" rather than "in kind" conversion... and so in that regard, even if GBTC  goes forward (with the approval) at the same time as the others, whether it is 4-6 as proclaimed by you, Franky, or some higher number that is closer to the full number (maybe 9-12?), I am inclined to believe that Grayscale is going to largely be approved at the same time and that the number of approved will be way closer to the full number rather than Franky's lower number, which even you (Franky) seem to be coming up a bit off of your initial assertions that only 1 would be approved.. and even your date seems to becoming more accepting that these approvals are imminent.. even though it did turn out, as you suggested, that they had not gotten approved in 2023 - but still matters are humming right along, and in late November when I suggested that the could have had been approved in 2023, I actually had not realized that there were public comment periods that were until early January.

Another point regarding how soon that these matters are going to go "live" after approval, there are some folks that suggest that they may well end up going live within a few days after approval (so allowed to be traded), and part of the rationale for that might have to do with the complexity of fair advantage or if Grayscale is able to convert right away, then the ETFs should be allowed to provide competition (or an alternative place that current Grayscale customers would be able to go upon their conversion, including that the "in cash" rather than "in kind" conversion is creating a taxable event that may well more easily inspire current Grayscale customers to be more portable.. which again shows another way that Grayscale is being punished or attacked and probably Blackrock or some of the insider bullies were able to get a likely approval of those kinds of dynamics in which some of the status quo incumbents, such as Blackrock, are likely using the tools of government to create seemingly subtle, yet unfair advantages for themselves... even though you, franky, seem to just love Blackrock for its supposed competency, rather than its getting things done due to bullying and "influence".. which surely might not always be distinguishable between free market dynamics and currying favor.

officially only ARK21 has the jan 10th FINAL deadline, the others have FINAL deadlines for March onwards
where by some only have "next"(interim deadlines) in january 14th-17th
with hashdex having a "next" interim deadline on the 1st of january and they did NOT get any news at all.. (shows some possibility that the others with just interim deadlines in january may get ignored too)

however the SEC has been not only consulting with the CBOE (finalising ark) but also with NYSE, NASDAQ to suggest finalising some others too

i still dont think all dozen will get approved simultaneously,
but the main 4-6ish will sometime before summer, maybe at same time in january or in march

grayscale. due to all litigation of the past and present (gemini fiasco) doesnt give good confidence to the SEC, although grayscales recent change of management to people with real fund management experience would/did help..
so grayscale is still the questionable one compared to say blackrock

ETF approval is nigh, the real question is: "Will GBTC be in the same batch as the other issuers"?
Yesterday there was an X-space with the two BBG gurus Balchunas and Seyffart and the hypothesis that GBTC would be excluded from the day 1 launch surfaced, they both more or less agreed on that.
This could have massive implications for GBTC, which actually saw the spread narrowing to less than 6%.

nah
its more like each ETF dont want to be left behind so are asking the SEC about what stipulations/requirements each one lacks in the confidence level of all being approved in jan 2024
and each are getting answered quite quickly. yep the SEC is finally communicating with ETF applicants and sharing the requirements each one lacks. which is where the ETF are then speedily updating their SEC filings to meet the latest requirements

EG the ETF that were doing "inkind" were being asked to offer "in cash" settlements of btc basket closing.
EG some who lack previous experience in funds management are asked to change the directorships with guys with experience, to gain regulatory confidence that competes with ETF applicants that had previous experience

the ETF are all in a rush to meet requirements in the hopes it will make the SEC release an announcement of more then just 1 approval at a time
but before december 2023 the SEC was no where near able/ready to approve any.. let alone more then 1 etf at a time as they all missed certain requirements

although "favouritism" is a witch-hunt word which people shout if SEC dont approve many at once.. but even from an outsiders point of view id have more confidence in blackrocks position in november 2023 compared to grayscale 2023 position
so i wouldnt call it favouritism if the SEC chose blackrock before grayscale. it call it smart thinking to choose one that has for decades been offering maany etf's, so know what they are doing. compared to grayscales previous directors thats never handled a ETF before

but grayscale now changing its directorships around, so gains some footing of confidence. so maybe grayscale has better hope of being approved alongside blackrock. though there are still some other considerations that show grayscale still lack certain things compared to blackrock
(EG the legal battles of funds loss/debt the DCG done in recent years)

Really there was no clear reason for the reshuffling of the board members and you can see some of the information from these two links. Grayscale Investments chair Barry Silbert resigns while SEC mulls Bitcoin ETF and Barry Silbert, Mark Murphy Resign In Grayscale Reshuffle reshuffling of workers in a company in some case help to grow the company in a good direction if the management is not working well to achieve the goal the reshuffling is good idea.

I find this quite amusing, as the SEC is now telegraphing each move to every ETF applicant right now. Being overzealous toward the ETF sponsors maybe means less cautious when approving, letting the all the bunch of issuers fight to get the bigger share of the market.
SEC is now terrified to be accused of picking a winner (or a loser, fwiw) that is now worried about everyone doing theri homework and having the ETF approved.

grayscale said this


so yep SEC did not have confidence in the old management teams lack of experience in fund management of an ETF

I think that all these events are happening due to the acceleration of approval of the spot BTC-ETF. GBTC also has an application with the SEC, and perhaps during the negotiations some people had to leave the company to speed up the process. But these are just my thoughts.

Coinglass has two live charts for Grayscale holdings and Grayscale Premium

https://www.coinglass.com/pro/gray/Grayscale
https://www.coinglass.com/pro/gray/GrayscalePremium

It seems Coinglass is more regular updated their chart and figures for Grayscale Bitcoin Trust than two following websites.
https://bitcointreasuries.net/
https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/treasuries/

It appears someone is trying to terminate the hustlers and the clowns in the cryptospace before uncle Gary agrees on an approval on a spot ETF for bitcoin. I reckon Justin Sun might be the next person to be terminated. This terminator might be the Lex Luthor of the cryptospace and he is doing this with the help of his backer. The backer might be Larry Fink.

comparing grayscale to blackrock.
grayscale lacks proper ETF experience and fund management experience

Murthys work history is in public relations, communications and litigation
silberts history is in private investments (business internal shares of private companies/venture capital)

they both do not have experience of managing funds of a publicly traded investment vehicle

so even if grayscale never done a ETF before, unlike blackrock..  the only chance to show grayscale can be capable of running one is to have a team that ran one before from other ventures in their work history

grayscale was missing a few key bits of confidence of running the ETF in SEC eyes so this management reshuffle is a positive
some may think silbert is falling on his own sword, resigning from the business he founded.. but im sure he is well compensated and will continue to earn more even if he isnt barking orders any longer from a direct position within grayscale.

also barry silbert is still the DCG president so still gets to puppet master grayscale from a different level, though it would on-paper appear as grayscale distancing itself from the legal troubles of DCG's 2022-23 legal woes

the replacements did work for DCG previous to this month so its not like they're strangers to DCG manifesto/corporate strategy. but they do appear to have better work history that can aid grayscales confidence more then the previous

If I had to guess, it's probably related to some residual fallout from Genesis.  Any ties to either the Genesis bankruptcy or the 'Gemini Earn' thing and the SEC's subsequent intervention probably look bad for the application.

Breaking news:

GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST (BTC): BARRY E. SILBERT AND MARK MURPHY NOTIFIED OF THEIR RESIGNATION FROM BOARD OF GRAYSCALE INVESTMENTS - SEC FILING - RTRS


Still unclear the reason.
Not a good sign for me.

I think blackrock does grab it.

i was about to put together a table of the different exchanges the applicants want to appear on. thanks for saving me time(have my usual merit giveaway)

most share traders/pension managers care more about the nasdaq first then NYSE second.. the cboe are way down the scale
my odds are still on blackrock(ishares) being first mover for nasdaq

as for NYSE
though bitwise and hashdex are a few steps behind. i still dont think SEC trusts grayscale enough so could delay all NYSE candidates. but thats my opinion based on all the DCG drama with the SEC.
grayscale also realised they were not etf experts so recently head-hunted and hired one from investco.. grayscale may now have some expertise to adapt their platform to tick-box a few more sec requirements, only time will tell

Let's just make a small recap.

Firstly, an overview of the current situation: applicants, exchange custodian, the usual stuff:



Secondly, the confirmation there will be a window open between Jan 5th and Jan 10th.



Bloomberg didn't move their estimate from 90% in January, still.