Grayscale inflow hit the lowest level, Ruffer sold BTC worth as much as $750 million, and Elon Musk removed "Bitcoin" from Twitter bio - I wonder what is the reason that the price of BTC is suddenly rising towards $40k? Just one more in a series of bull traps maybe
Ruffer sold part of their investment. They are still invested. Market was happy to absorb these buys, and this is a good news. Not everybody shares the "indefinite hodl" strategy à la Micheal Saylor.
This is a good news because sooner or later we will have to start pondering about the elephant in the room (taking back the discussion in
topic).
The real question is: what happens with GBTC selling their BTC?
For now, we never experienced real OUTFLOWS from Grayscale.
If you want to exit from GBTC, Grayscale does not provide a repurchase agreement. So you have to sell your shares in the open market.
For the moment this happens at a hefty premium, so no big issue here.
But what happens when an ETF gets approved in the US?
Probably this ETF will sport a lower fee than grayscale. So investors will start selling their shares in GBTC to switch from GBTC to this new ETF.
Probably grayscale shares will have a discount on the NAV, and arbitrageur would kick in only at a discount sufficient to repay them for the higher commissions than the ETF.
Probably Grayscale would have to reduce the number of shares, selling their bitcoins.
This selling pressure would be countered by the buying pressure from the new ETF (assuming a perfect switch from the two entities the total effects should be negligible). Nevertheless, differences in timing between the two operations could induce greater volatility in the market.