Topic: FIFA World Cup 2022 Group Stage Highlights - page 44. (Read 11623 times)

What exactly makes you think that they will end up "so close"? There is only a single scenario that would lead to Japan and Germany ending up "so close":
Japan vs. Spain ends in a draw and Germany wins by 1 goal against Costa Rica.

1. Japan vs. Spain 1-1 and Germany Costa Rica 1-0.
2. Japan vs. Spain 2-2 and Germany Costa Rica 2-1.
3. Japan vs. Spain 3-3 and Germany Costa Rica 3-2.

I think we can leave 3. away. I also think we can leave 2. away because I don't see the game between Japan and Spain end 2-2. There is one situation that might make sense and that is 1. Let's see what the odds for a combination bet would be. I pull the data from bet365:

Germany vs. Costa Rica 1-0 - 12.0
Japan vs. Spain 1-1 - 9.5

For your outcome to occur, we are talking about conditional probability, meaning that we multiply the two odds provided above: 12.0 x 9.5 = 114.0

The probability for your "so close" case to occur is 0.877%. To be fair though a 2-2 between Japan and Spain is not impossible. In conditional probability calculations, you add up different possible outcomes. Since the odds for Japan to tie 2-2 vs. Spain is half of 1-1, and Germany vs. Costa Rica 2-1 is roughly the same (a bit less), you could add about 50% of the probability for outcome 1. to outcome 1., giving your roughly 1.3%. Scenario 3. is statistically negligible.

That means statistically in 1 out of 77 times (based on bet365 odds) the scenario you think we are very close to is going to happen.

Japan was lucky to win Germany, but failed to win simpler team which was Costa Rica, it was a big disappointment as I thought Japan would win that day when none of the clubs were even still having no goal at the second half, but with just one shot on target, Costa Rica won the match. Let us see what would happen today, but it would be very difficult that Japan would draw with Spain, Spain will likely win while Germany will also win Costa Rica. These are guesses though.

I think Germany and Japan will end up so close in the group that we'll have to check the tie breaker rules for this tournament.

From one source I can see there's no head-to-head comparison (Where Japan won against Germany):


But this other source says head-to-head does count, just before the fair play score:


In any case, if Germany wins by a lot of goals and Japan draws, they can end up going to the next round, but if they tie on that number, then it's not that clear to me what's the next rule to apply.

even in qualifying, we have seen something we could not have predicted. Italy's failure to qualify, certainly surprised most of the fans, because the country that always regularly appears in the World Cup was finally unable to qualify.
even in the previous edition of the world cup, Croatia finally challenged France in the final match. something very surprising when Croatia also managed to get rid of its favorite country.
every season we can see surprises that we cannot predict.

I don't know if anyone has realized, but we had several unpredictable games, in which the team that was favorite to win, unfortunately lost.
For example, Germany losing to Japan, Argentina losing to Saudi Arabia and recently, France losing to Tunisia.

My question is, will we have a lot of unpredictable games during this World Cup in the future?

While an Argentina vs Brazil was the final many people wanted to watch during this world cup, at the same time Argentina could not really afford to go easy during the last match and they needed the win at all costs, besides with this result they avoided France, which seems to be even more dangerous as they are playing really well, also I think that with each game Argentina has been increasing its level, so the longer they can avoid other top teams the better.

Even though Lionel Messi failed to score, several holes were opened because the opponent continued to guard Messi's movements in the penalty box area, Messi's presence in the match was actually quite helpful for the team, so that other players such as Julian Alvarez, Alexis MacAllister and Angel Di Maria were free to attack.

A 0-2 loss to Argentina also saw Poland qualify for the knockout phase, although they failed to finish top of the group.
Poland is likely to face tough opponents in the next knockout phase, but at least for now Czeslaw Michniewicz's team has secured a ticket to the next round.

This happened in the first game of this tournament against Saudi Arabia. Where the coach was later suggesting him to play down. The coach understood that Messi was always held back by some players. The Saudis team knew that if they could constrict Messi, they might be able to tie the match. Although they never dared to win the match. However, to play Argentina, Messi must be on the strike. Otherwise it may be more difficult to score.

Argentina is still too strong for Poland and I am also happy that Argentina can qualify for the next round, and the match at Stadium 974 can decide the fate of both teams. Poland only needed a draw to secure a step into the last 16, Argentina needed a win and Lionel Scaloni was able to turn it into a 0-2 victory.
and throughout the match Argentina immediately took the initiative to control the ball because the aim was to win not draw, and even though Messi was unable to execute a penalty kick, he still played a very important role for Argentina. And facing Australia in the next round, I think Argentina will win the game with a narrow score because Australia is not an easy opponent either.

Messi can't score that freely because the opposition defenders will be surrounding him all the time. But that gives an opportunity for some of the other players to score goals. If Messi is not in the starting XI, then it will add more pressure on players such as Di Maria and Martínez. On top of that, even the very presence of Messi is enough to create a psychological barrier in front of the opposition players. He may not have performed as per the expectation in the group stage, but I am sure that he will come back strongly in the knockout phase.

I’m really happy for Argentina. They completed the turnaround from the shock opening World Cup loss to Saudi Arabia by qualifying for the last 16 against Poland. They coach did a tactical change by dropping Lisandro Martinez and paring Romero with Otamendi knowing fully well of the the threat of Milik and Lewandoski in the air. Messi has really been instrumental for this Argentina team. He was the catalyst for the crucial win against Mexico that got Argentina's campaign back on track. They’ll face Australia in the round of 16, and I’m sure they’ll progress pass that stage.

Messi was very active on the field even though he didn’t score. He created a lot of chances. And he was getting the balls in dangerous areas even though he was often guarded by at least 3 players. And I actually agreed that Poland was very bad in this game. They should have done better. I cannot say I have seen Robert Lewandowski being very effective in this match. I have to say that they all got really lucky that they are going to play in the next round of the World Cup.

I think Messi has only scored in a penalty in this world cup.

Usually you see better goals from Messi, and he even lost a penalty against the Polish team.

I don't think this is going to be the world cup for Messi, unfortunately.

The next match is going to be tough for Argentina.

Even if Messi can't score, Messi's role is indispensable for the team's victory. He has performed very well against Poland. Even if Messi's performance is poor, the team's players are more confident when he is in the squad. Also, the opposition defenders have their main focus on Messi, so other players in the team can create scoring opportunities as well. And so even if Messi's performance is a bit weak in a match, Messi plays an important role in the overall performance of the team.

My biggest worry here is that we may not get an Argentina vs Brazil final. Argentina has topped their respective group and in all probability Brazil will also do the same in their group. In that case, if they win all the matches from now on, then during the semi-finals these two teams will come against each other. And that increases the possibility of the final match between one of the UEFA teams and one team from the CONMEBOL (either Argentina or Brazil). This scenario will be quite difficult and disappointing for the fans.

They played a very good first half against Saudi Arabia as well.  As they were a bit unlucky, they got one goal and lost the match.  The game they played in the match was not bad.  They were stuck with the offside tactic in the first half.  Anyway, now we know the teams that came out of the group.  I have no doubt that we will watch more exciting and beautiful matches in the next qualifiers.

Well here I think that the fight was between the Netherlands and Senegal, Ecuador along with Qatar lost the pass to the round of 16, and as I have seen everything I think that the Netherlands can continue advancing in the World Cup, I did know that Senegal was going to pass, and although I really like the football they do in AFRICA and hopefully they continue to do a great job so that the team continues to surprise the world with their good plays, as I said before, I would like Senegal to do everything they have in their hands to continue advancing in the round of 16, Things in this World Cup are getting very exciting, here there is no room for the wrong team.


Well here Senegal showed the world that if you can and what you pursue with a lot of effort can be achieved, I really congratulate Senegal for playing a great role in this World Cup, this is an example of never giving up, here in football everything is possible, the work that Senegal did was impeccable, the truth is that Ecuador gave away everything in the first half and when time is wasted and plays in football there is no going back, they didn't have a chance at the last, sometimes you have to leave everything on the field and I think Senegal did it and showed what they are made of, African football is growing a lot, and I hope they continue like this.

Senegal doesn't have it easy anymore, it's their turn against one of the toughest teams in the World Cup:

Senegal next for England as Marcus Rashford stars in victory over Wales




Source: https://www.irishnews.com/sport/2022/11/30/news/senegal_next_for_england_as_marcus_rashford_stars_in_victory_over_wales-2921852/

It was a terrible night for Mexico. Mexico performed very well. I watched the entire match. They attacked a lot and managed to score two goals. But Mexico needed a 3-0 win to qualify for the next round. But Mexico failed. They scored two goals and conceded one.

On the other hand, Poland's main goal today was not to concede a goal. Poland's players did not attempt to attack or score. They only resisted Argentina's attack by playing defensively. However, they conceded two goals. Actually, the Poland team is not strong enough.

Denmark is a weak team in this World Cup version so we cannot really rely on it.
Australia is a good team, way under Argentina but definitely it shouldn't be underestimated. Argentina defeat vs Saudi Arabia made them more serious while Australia will play under stress since they will face a top team and they don't have history to move further. I expect Argentina to pass here.

No problem, still have plenty of time for Messi to create any goal for his country. The missed penalty is not the biggest mistake when the team still won and is able to the next round. Now, what Messi must prepare as Captain is giving spirit to the squad for the next 16-round match versus Australia, We know Australia is an underdog team, but they can make a surprise like they beat Denmark last night.