Finding value bets - page 4. | Bitcointalksearch.org

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Quote from: Get-Paid.com on July 04, 2022, 03:27:56 AM

Last night, Djokovic, one of the best tennis players on grass out there (potentially he is the favorite to win in Wimbledon) - had odds of 1.25 at peak against Timmy, after Timmy won one set.
Would you see that 1.25 as a value bet or not?

What if a tennis player in Wimbledon or some other big tournament, quickly goes 40-0 and you have him @ 1.10 to win the game (not the match, just that 40-0 game) - can this be a value bet?

What about a basketball match, the total line is 180.5 and the game in live goes 150.5 - is it worth taking the "over" because the line has dropped 30 points below the original line?

How do you define value in general?

Unless you're crunching huge amounts of information like the casinos then at best you'll end up making an "educated guess". If you're keeping track of your betting and doing analysis, maybe over a few years you could determine that your judgements on value are accurate - because otherwise variance might bring your profit back down to zero on short timescales. Honestly you'd think things like a team being two goals up in a football match with 5 minutes to go a sure fire winner, but I've seen enough reversals of fortune to know it's not a long term winner.

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Quote from: pawanjain on September 03, 2022, 10:43:00 AM

For me, a bet where I am getting decent returns on a bet that is most probably about to win would be a value bet.
For example if I am placing a bet where I know that I would most probably win this bet and if the returns are over 1.5x times then I would consider it as a value bet.
The chances of winning the bet should be at least over 85% in this case. I have played such bets few times and won in most of the cases.

If that is your definition of a value bet without looking at the current news on the teams that are participating then you're screwed in the long run.

There are tons of favorites in sportsbetting that ended up losing to a relatively weaker team just because a key player is not playing. Just the NBA for example. A lot of us know that the Golden State Warriors are capable of defeating any teams in the league if they are complete even though they are not well-rested. If for example one of their key players cannot attend, their odds of winning the match is still the same in most cases. When matched with a relatively weaker team but with complete players, this team can still crumble, as their rotations are not the same compared to when they're complete.

It's important to look at the current news on the teams rather than the numbers and odds given by the bookies alone. This makes your bet more valuable as you know some of the things that could potentially ruin your bet.

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Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on September 03, 2022, 09:37:03 AM

Quote from: Yaunfitda on August 04, 2022, 09:14:36 AM

Quote from: danherbias07 on July 07, 2022, 05:00:07 AM

If the odds are low but it looks like a sure win then parlay it. That is what I do when I am having a difficult time deciding if it's worth the bet.
Sometimes I play different sports that I do not know and look for low odds just to add in a long parlay and maximize the profits.
In regards, if it's a value bet, no if you risking a large amount of money. Imagine pouring $1000 in one bet and all you can win is $100 while if a sudden unexpected thing happens you will lose 10 fold of the winning bet.
I like risks, but this is not the type that I want. Most of the time going for underdogs with lesser bets but high winnings.

Yeah, but the problem in parlay is the risk as well, you can have multiple bets, but it will be completely destroyed when one of value bets loses. And the odds are not going to be high, it won't even go 1.50 if you have like 1.10 or lower multiple bets.

So it's really hard to bet on this so called value bets, yeah chances are very high, but there are chances that they might still be upset in the end. Unless everything really falls into it, multiple bets all winning whether the odds are very high or very attractive.

I have always thought of that type of betting, where everyone is sure to win, they put large amounts of money to make it something profitable in terms of their personal situation, and particularly when one makes a not-so-big bet, that is, not to lose so much money and if the result is given, it is like winning a lottery, of course the people who do this do not take risks, because they know very well that some are very guided by statistics, for me this will change a lot when they go to seek new horizons in the world Because the World Cup will undoubtedly bring very good surprises for me, and I could say that the first meeting could be a surprise.

Something unexpected might happen from the first meeting a surprise where a risk takers can win a huge amount of profits if top caliber team got upset by an underdog squad, just like what you have said it's a different venue and a full of surprises but it's also a good place for every gambler who loves to watch and enjoy the game.

Quote from: pawanjain on September 03, 2022, 10:43:00 AM

For me, a bet where I am getting decent returns on a bet that is most probably about to win would be a value bet.
For example if I am placing a bet where I know that I would most probably win this bet and if the returns are over 1.5x times then I would consider it as a value bet.
The chances of winning the bet should be at least over 85% in this case. I have played such bets few times and won in most of the cases.

The odd is decent enough if you can repeat it over and over. You can earn huge with your initial capital. Though there's no assurance that you do it in every bet that you made, the chance to lose is still there even if you think the percentage of your chance is over 85%, there's still something that will ruined your pick and lead you to lose your money.

pawanjain

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For me, a bet where I am getting decent returns on a bet that is most probably about to win would be a value bet.
For example if I am placing a bet where I know that I would most probably win this bet and if the returns are over 1.5x times then I would consider it as a value bet.
The chances of winning the bet should be at least over 85% in this case. I have played such bets few times and won in most of the cases.

LUCKMCFLY

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Quote from: Yaunfitda on August 04, 2022, 09:14:36 AM

Quote from: danherbias07 on July 07, 2022, 05:00:07 AM

If the odds are low but it looks like a sure win then parlay it. That is what I do when I am having a difficult time deciding if it's worth the bet.
Sometimes I play different sports that I do not know and look for low odds just to add in a long parlay and maximize the profits.
In regards, if it's a value bet, no if you risking a large amount of money. Imagine pouring $1000 in one bet and all you can win is $100 while if a sudden unexpected thing happens you will lose 10 fold of the winning bet.
I like risks, but this is not the type that I want. Most of the time going for underdogs with lesser bets but high winnings.

Yeah, but the problem in parlay is the risk as well, you can have multiple bets, but it will be completely destroyed when one of value bets loses. And the odds are not going to be high, it won't even go 1.50 if you have like 1.10 or lower multiple bets.

So it's really hard to bet on this so called value bets, yeah chances are very high, but there are chances that they might still be upset in the end. Unless everything really falls into it, multiple bets all winning whether the odds are very high or very attractive.

I have always thought of that type of betting, where everyone is sure to win, they put large amounts of money to make it something profitable in terms of their personal situation, and particularly when one makes a not-so-big bet, that is, not to lose so much money and if the result is given, it is like winning a lottery, of course the people who do this do not take risks, because they know very well that some are very guided by statistics, for me this will change a lot when they go to seek new horizons in the world Because the World Cup will undoubtedly bring very good surprises for me, and I could say that the first meeting could be a surprise.

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Quote from: KTChampions on July 23, 2022, 01:51:52 PM

Quote from: danherbias07 on July 07, 2022, 05:00:07 AM

If the odds are low but it looks like a sure win then parlay it. That is what I do when I am having a difficult time deciding if it's worth the bet.
Sometimes I play different sports that I do not know and look for low odds just to add in a long parlay and maximize the profits.
In regards, if it's a value bet, no if you risking a large amount of money. Imagine pouring $1000 in one bet and all you can win is $100 while if a sudden unexpected thing happens you will lose 10 fold of the winning bet.
I like risks, but this is not the type that I want. Most of the time going for underdogs with lesser bets but high winnings.

The hallmark of a value bet is not its size at all. Taking your example of betting $1,000 to win $100, it can be a value bet if there is a guarantee that the bet will win more than 10 times out of 11 tries. Calculate for yourself - let's say on average this bet wins with a frequency of 14 out of 15 attempts. This means that on average you will receive 14x100-1000=400 dollars in 15 attempts. So this bet is a value bet.

I have been following such bets in tennis especially in the odd 1.10 which is considered a "guaranteed" win from many gamblers.I have been experimenting with this odd with of course much lower values,just to see if the odd is really a winning one or not.I have been putting 1 dollars bet on single such games in tennis and out of 10 times only 7 times were won,it means that there is a high risk of losing money by using this method and if it worked for real then most people would not need a job,they would just keep betting on such events.There is no value and no safe bet in sport betting.

Yaunfitda

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Quote from: danherbias07 on July 07, 2022, 05:00:07 AM

If the odds are low but it looks like a sure win then parlay it. That is what I do when I am having a difficult time deciding if it's worth the bet.
Sometimes I play different sports that I do not know and look for low odds just to add in a long parlay and maximize the profits.
In regards, if it's a value bet, no if you risking a large amount of money. Imagine pouring $1000 in one bet and all you can win is $100 while if a sudden unexpected thing happens you will lose 10 fold of the winning bet.
I like risks, but this is not the type that I want. Most of the time going for underdogs with lesser bets but high winnings.

Yeah, but the problem in parlay is the risk as well, you can have multiple bets, but it will be completely destroyed when one of value bets loses. And the odds are not going to be high, it won't even go 1.50 if you have like 1.10 or lower multiple bets.

So it's really hard to bet on this so called value bets, yeah chances are very high, but there are chances that they might still be upset in the end. Unless everything really falls into it, multiple bets all winning whether the odds are very high or very attractive.

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Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on August 02, 2022, 10:14:00 PM

Yes, it is as I say, the opposite case is very difficult to do because gambling in trading is a bet totally on luck, when we make bets in gfambling we are letting ourselves be carried away by the world of randomness and we fall into another value that is to leave everything to "luck", because patterns and certain routine plays tend to fail more likely, if we take into account that sports bets are or have more chances of winning, the answer is yes, because there are people who hire experts who Do the corresponding expert opinion on your players, in football, baske, of course, an assessment of that style without being with those players, it would be something very subjective, but it would still contribute a certain value when deciding on a bet.

Do you think that there are some independent expert teams that can be stronger than the odds providers that all bookmakers use? I am sure that this is unrealistic if we are talking about major competitions. Maybe it works for niche competitions and for the level of very low leagues, but it seems to me that if a player makes big bets on such competitions (otherwise he will not be able to recoup the work of experts), then this will cause a lot of questions from bookmakers.

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Quote from: Fredomago on July 23, 2022, 11:20:36 AM

Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on July 22, 2022, 03:48:33 PM

making sports bets is the closest thing to what I think of trading, where good information and dedication, study, can be rewarded.

Make sense, just like with trading, when you have good details about certain investment, you can have better opportunities to earn. More on your deeper study and following how the market works with the asset and how the developers are doing their part to get more engage investors to support the project,

same deal with sports betting, you can base your pick with the performances of the team or players that you are eyeing to bet, with good knowledge with the game you know how to select and how to sort which games you have the most chance of winning.

Yes, it is as I say, the opposite case is very difficult to do because gambling in trading is a bet totally on luck, when we make bets in gfambling we are letting ourselves be carried away by the world of randomness and we fall into another value that is to leave everything to "luck", because patterns and certain routine plays tend to fail more likely, if we take into account that sports bets are or have more chances of winning, the answer is yes, because there are people who hire experts who Do the corresponding expert opinion on your players, in football, baske, of course, an assessment of that style without being with those players, it would be something very subjective, but it would still contribute a certain value when deciding on a bet.

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Quote from: danherbias07 on July 07, 2022, 05:00:07 AM

If the odds are low but it looks like a sure win then parlay it. That is what I do when I am having a difficult time deciding if it's worth the bet.
Sometimes I play different sports that I do not know and look for low odds just to add in a long parlay and maximize the profits.
In regards, if it's a value bet, no if you risking a large amount of money. Imagine pouring $1000 in one bet and all you can win is $100 while if a sudden unexpected thing happens you will lose 10 fold of the winning bet.
I like risks, but this is not the type that I want. Most of the time going for underdogs with lesser bets but high winnings.

The hallmark of a value bet is not its size at all. Taking your example of betting $1,000 to win $100, it can be a value bet if there is a guarantee that the bet will win more than 10 times out of 11 tries. Calculate for yourself - let's say on average this bet wins with a frequency of 14 out of 15 attempts. This means that on average you will receive 14x100-1000=400 dollars in 15 attempts. So this bet is a value bet.

Fredomago

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Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on July 22, 2022, 03:48:33 PM

making sports bets is the closest thing to what I think of trading, where good information and dedication, study, can be rewarded.

Make sense, just like with trading, when you have good details about certain investment, you can have better opportunities to earn. More on your deeper study and following how the market works with the asset and how the developers are doing their part to get more engage investors to support the project,

same deal with sports betting, you can base your pick with the performances of the team or players that you are eyeing to bet, with good knowledge with the game you know how to select and how to sort which games you have the most chance of winning.

Zackgeno96

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If you delve into it enough, you can find very vague value bets. But the problem is that of course the bookmakers are also keeping an eye on that, so if you have found a value bet or get information about it, you have to act extremely quickly and skillfully. I have also read a lot that certain value bets are not paid out by betting sites and then the bets are cancelled. And let's face it, a value bet is not a sure bet and you could lose it as well. Or you have to place a counter bet with another bookmaker. There are some pro players who win a lot of money with this.

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Quote from: Gozie51 on July 07, 2022, 08:09:39 AM

The odd looks small to risk in the game of tennis. Djokovic may not be at his best on the night while you have relied on him to win, anything can happen to turn around the performance of the champion that has low bet on. Tennis is an individual game where just an individual is expected to take his fate by his hand and not a team game that there are reserves to support a weaker or injured player.

For me in this kind of game I don't think that I trust or believe in anyone especially this tennis kind of game is only when you are determined to win is when two become successful on it but predicting according to their match and they want yours I have tennis game is not like that it's not all about you are perfection it's all about the luck which is involved. Sometimes I does not predict any game but I believe it not feeling well that my prediction I focus on can feel me but hope that it's a suggestion or luck.

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Quote from: Fredomago on July 07, 2022, 12:45:28 PM

Quote from: danherbias07 on July 07, 2022, 05:00:07 AM

If the odds are low but it looks like a sure win then parlay it. That is what I do when I am having a difficult time deciding if it's worth the bet.
Sometimes I play different sports that I do not know and look for low odds just to add in a long parlay and maximize the profits.
In regards, if it's a value bet, no if you risking a large amount of money. Imagine pouring $1000 in one bet and all you can win is $100 while if a sudden unexpected thing happens you will lose 10 fold of the winning bet.
I like risks, but this is not the type that I want. Most of the time going for underdogs with lesser bets but high winnings.

That point, in terms of valuing the potential loss against your potential wins, experienced gamblers are good in weighting in this kind of opportunities, higher chance of winning with a small amount of profits, personally I'm not into this kind of bet I agree and support you
when doing a parlay if I feel that there's a good chance of winning.

Combining multiple bets can give you much better odd, though it's always depends on how you categorized your pick,

value bets depends from how you fully understand the game and how good you think you are in choosing games to bet.

You are right, things when it comes to Parlay are very diverse, I think that at a time it can get out of control, sometimes when you have no idea how you can make a bet because you do not know the sport well it is a risk that sometimes some players are taken lightly, in my case I am much more careful when making bets of that style, at least I would read a little and document myself to be able to have a bet a little safer, some do not stop him or not They give importance to them, but I think that when making sports bets, everything should not be left to chance, because for me, making sports bets is the closest thing to what I think of trading, where good information and dedication, study, can be rewarded.

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Quote from: danherbias07 on July 07, 2022, 05:00:07 AM

In regards, if it's a value bet, no if you risking a large amount of money. Imagine pouring $1000 in one bet and all you can win is $100 while if a sudden unexpected thing happens you will lose 10 fold of the winning bet.
I like risks, but this is not the type that I want. Most of the time going for underdogs with lesser bets but high winnings.

That's where the value of the heavy favorites comes into action, instead of taking them pre-live at 1.1 or something, you'd go for them whenever they go down (through live betting). The only annoying part is that looking for value bets takes a lot of time and patience since you have to wait for the opportunity but it's worth it if you're down to rely on big favorites.

Quote from: KTChampions on July 07, 2022, 01:08:07 PM

I thought about these options and came to the conclusion that this is not a profitable move. It turns out that you take the (guaranteed) winnings but it is less than if things continue to go the way they are going. It is better to wait until the end of the event and take the winnings in full. In my opinion, even taking into account the fact that sometimes there will be comebacks, this will be a more profitable strategy.

I agree in the long run it's not best to use the cashout option on most of your bets since it'll reduce your profits by a lot but IMO it doesn't hurt to use the cashout option once in a while.

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Quote from: Gozie51 on July 07, 2022, 08:09:39 AM

The odd looks small to risk in the game of tennis. Djokovic may not be at his best on the night while you have relied on him to win, anything can happen to turn around the performance of the champion that has a low bet on. Tennis is an individual game where just an individual is expected to take his fate by his hand and not a team game where there are reserves to support a weaker or injured player.

The odd may be small when you are betting in tennis or any other live bet but there is a higher possibility of the player with a smaller odd to come back from behind to win even when the player is losing. In the case of Djokovic that you mentioned, if the odds are in his favor for him to win if he is not at his best once it is a live bet the odds of his opponent will start dropping instead of increasing, or the odd of Djokovic will be increased. Live betting Odds are given based on calculated potential capabilities or form of the team or player in a particular game. In the case of injury or weakness of the player with the smaller odd in tennis, the odds will be changed automatically especially when the player with the bigger odds is playing better or winning.

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Quote from: ralle14 on July 06, 2022, 09:53:54 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on July 05, 2022, 04:31:26 PM

Today, Djokovic lost two sets, but after he began to lead in the third set, he became the favorite according to bookmakers. After he won the third set he became the clear favorite. In my opinion betting on his opponent was a value bet (despite the fact that Djokovic won in the end) because Djokovic, in a clearly worse situation, was quoted as a favorite only because of his name, but the chances that he would lose were more than real. I have noticed that value betting often occurs where the big names are involved, as this significantly distorts the objective picture.

It was crazy how the odds were just hovering around 2.50 for Djokovic to win when he was down 2-0 then Sinner's odds were around 1.60. I agree, if you took Sinner pre-live you could've had some good cashout opportunities when he was up after the second set. The same thing happened on Nadal's match as he was the favorite pre-live then the odds suddenly switched as he went down a set.
~

I thought about these options and came to the conclusion that this is not a profitable move. It turns out that you take the (guaranteed) winnings but it is less than if things continue to go the way they are going. It is better to wait until the end of the event and take the winnings in full. In my opinion, even taking into account the fact that sometimes there will be comebacks, this will be a more profitable strategy.

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Quote from: danherbias07 on July 07, 2022, 05:00:07 AM

If the odds are low but it looks like a sure win then parlay it. That is what I do when I am having a difficult time deciding if it's worth the bet.
Sometimes I play different sports that I do not know and look for low odds just to add in a long parlay and maximize the profits.
In regards, if it's a value bet, no if you risking a large amount of money. Imagine pouring $1000 in one bet and all you can win is $100 while if a sudden unexpected thing happens you will lose 10 fold of the winning bet.
I like risks, but this is not the type that I want. Most of the time going for underdogs with lesser bets but high winnings.

That point, in terms of valuing the potential loss against your potential wins, experienced gamblers are good in weighting in this kind of opportunities, higher chance of winning with a small amount of profits, personally I'm not into this kind of bet I agree and support you
when doing a parlay if I feel that there's a good chance of winning.

Combining multiple bets can give you much better odd, though it's always depends on how you categorized your pick,

value bets depends from how you fully understand the game and how good you think you are in choosing games to bet.

Gozie51

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The odd looks small to risk in the game of tennis. Djokovic may not be at his best on the night while you have relied on him to win, anything can happen to turn around the performance of the champion that has low bet on. Tennis is an individual game where just an individual is expected to take his fate by his hand and not a team game that there are reserves to support a weaker or injured player.

danherbias07

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If the odds are low but it looks like a sure win then parlay it. That is what I do when I am having a difficult time deciding if it's worth the bet.
Sometimes I play different sports that I do not know and look for low odds just to add in a long parlay and maximize the profits.
In regards, if it's a value bet, no if you risking a large amount of money. Imagine pouring $1000 in one bet and all you can win is $100 while if a sudden unexpected thing happens you will lose 10 fold of the winning bet.
I like risks, but this is not the type that I want. Most of the time going for underdogs with lesser bets but high winnings.

Topic: Finding value bets - page 4. (Read 901 times)