Finding value bets - page 5. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Strongkored

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Quote from: Get-Paid.com on July 04, 2022, 03:27:56 AM

Last night, Djokovic, one of the best tennis players on grass out there (potentially he is the favorite to win in Wimbledon) - had odds of 1.25 at peak against Timmy, after Timmy won one set.
Would you see that 1.25 as a value bet or not?

Odds 1.25 on Djokovic is a value bet as most of the time he only has odds below that for the prematch.
If you are a typical bettor who diligently betting in live bet, it is possible to get a value bet especially if the seed is in a behind position, but I think it will be quite stressful if you continue to wait for the value bet in a live bet because it will not always appears.

ralle14

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Quote from: KTChampions on July 05, 2022, 04:31:26 PM

Today, Djokovic lost two sets, but after he began to lead in the third set, he became the favorite according to bookmakers. After he won the third set he became the clear favorite. In my opinion betting on his opponent was a value bet (despite the fact that Djokovic won in the end) because Djokovic, in a clearly worse situation, was quoted as a favorite only because of his name, but the chances that he would lose were more than real. I have noticed that value betting often occurs where the big names are involved, as this significantly distorts the objective picture.

It was crazy how the odds were just hovering around 2.50 for Djokovic to win when he was down 2-0 then Sinner's odds were around 1.60. I agree, if you took Sinner pre-live you could've had some good cashout opportunities when he was up after the second set. The same thing happened on Nadal's match as he was the favorite pre-live then the odds suddenly switched as he went down a set.

I also want to point out the value bets coming from promotions as certain bookies would convert your losing ticket as a win given that the team you picked meets certain conditions.

Smartvirus

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Quote from: KTChampions on July 05, 2022, 04:31:26 PM

Today, Djokovic lost two sets, but after he began to lead in the third set, he became the favorite according to bookmakers. After he won the third set he became the clear favorite. In my opinion betting on his opponent was a value bet (despite the fact that Djokovic won in the end) because Djokovic, in a clearly worse situation, was quoted as a favorite only because of his name, but the chances that he would lose were more than real. I have noticed that value betting often occurs where the big names are involved, as this significantly distorts the objective picture.

Names supersedes the results in a live event when there is still time. It's just somehow bookmakers have managed to scare off bettors from taking chances that comes up in the game until it eludes them due to time. Even at that, its quite risky too as in competitive events, so long as there is time, there is the possibility of a come back. You can imagine the results of the 2nd leg of the UCL semi finals between Real Madrid and Manchester City. Where R. Marhez managed to extend the aggregate to a 2 goals upto the 90th minute. I guess if you to pick a bet a that point you would go for Manchester City and that's for sure supposed to be a valued bet andbyet somehow, Real Madrid still did a come back, won and advanced to the finals. Its just the game!

KTChampions

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Today, Djokovic lost two sets, but after he began to lead in the third set, he became the favorite according to bookmakers. After he won the third set he became the clear favorite. In my opinion betting on his opponent was a value bet (despite the fact that Djokovic won in the end) because Djokovic, in a clearly worse situation, was quoted as a favorite only because of his name, but the chances that he would lose were more than real. I have noticed that value betting often occurs where the big names are involved, as this significantly distorts the objective picture.

Boristhecat

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Quote from: Slow death on July 04, 2022, 05:44:39 PM

I will speak from my own experience:

Until some time when I watched a soccer game, it was normal for a team to be winning by 2 - 0 and the odd was at @1.12 I thought: "if I bet and guaranteed victory" but to my shock and that when I reached 72 minutes the team that was losing the game managed to draw and win the game, it was something shocking. so I thought: " I'm going to start placing bets with odds of @1.50 and I could even win some games, but I only had to lose 2 games for all my victories to become useless, so I changed to odds of @2.00 and realized the following: a bet value is one in which the person knows that if he wins his effort to keep doing analysis it will be rewarded, and the person will be in profit in the long run

Everyone has gone through this experience - "guaranteed" bets are the most frustrating since you win little and a bad outcome ruins the profits from a range of bets you've painstakingly accumulated before. Now I also choose big odds plus I try to bet if the favorite is in a losing position - in the end he is still the favorite, but the odds of him winning become attractive.

sovie

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Quote from: Slow death on July 04, 2022, 05:44:39 PM

I will speak from my own experience:

Until some time when I watched a soccer game, it was normal for a team to be winning by 2 - 0 and the odd was at @1.12 I thought: "if I bet and guaranteed victory" but to my shock and that when I reached 72 minutes the team that was losing the game managed to draw and win the game, it was something shocking. so I thought: " I'm going to start placing bets with odds of @1.50 and I could even win some games, but I only had to lose 2 games for all my victories to become useless, so I changed to odds of @2.00 and realized the following: a bet value is one in which the person knows that if he wins his effort to keep doing analysis it will be rewarded, and the person will be in profit in the long run

Sports is so unpredictable - anything can happen at any moment - a winning match can be turned into a losing innings.
But if I talk about my experience - I am an absolute loser in sport bet. And now I don't make these sports bet because I know I am gonna lose anyways.

Slow death

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I will speak from my own experience:

Until some time when I watched a soccer game, it was normal for a team to be winning by 2 - 0 and the odd was at @1.12 I thought: "if I bet and guaranteed victory" but to my shock and that when I reached 72 minutes the team that was losing the game managed to draw and win the game, it was something shocking. so I thought: " I'm going to start placing bets with odds of @1.50 and I could even win some games, but I only had to lose 2 games for all my victories to become useless, so I changed to odds of @2.00 and realized the following: a bet value is one in which the person knows that if he wins his effort to keep doing analysis it will be rewarded, and the person will be in profit in the long run

Hydrogen

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Quote from: Get-Paid.com on July 04, 2022, 03:27:56 AM

Last night, Djokovic, one of the best tennis players on grass out there (potentially he is the favorite to win in Wimbledon) - had odds of 1.25 at peak against Timmy, after Timmy won one set.
Would you see that 1.25 as a value bet or not?

I would look at their game history.

And see how consistently they win sets 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. And by how many points.

Then I would look at their opponent's game history and check for the same stats.

How strong both players were in the 2nd set. Would determine whether it was value enough to pursue.

1.25 bets need to be hit with around 80% accuracy to break even. You can lose 1 in 5 bets at 1.25 odds and break even.

darkangel11

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It's a discussion as old as the sports gambling itself. To simplify most people ask the same question: should I bet on the team with high odds and very low payout or the opposite.
If you keep betting on the favored team and you place 10 bets you may find that even though you won all 10 you are just 10% up on your money and just 1 loss would completely wipe you out. If you keep betting on the underdogs and losing 9/10 bets you may find that even after winning just 1 out of 10 you are also up 10% total and just one more win would put you at 50% so what's next? bet on the winner again and get a few cents on the dollar or go for the underdog with the potential of doubling your money.

I can't tell you which one is better. Some people like this strategy, some like the other one.

Reid

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I rarely do live betting and those numbers lower than x1.50 is not a good score in my opinion. But if I do like the game, then I can add it in a parlay to boost the odds. Then, what I don't like more is when a gambling sites keeps on rejecting the bet while it's live, you keep on repeating it trying to register your bet and then suddenly the score changed.
So I'd rather do my analysis pre game then put my bets early. I would enjoy it more than thinking about betting during live games.

KTChampions

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Quote from: Gianluca95 on July 04, 2022, 01:36:58 PM

Value bet is a kind of bet where a results of bet is really overestimated or underestimated. That bet is called it value bet. There were some match, this year we've seen many match of Barcelona where odds was really

underestimated for the competitor and overestimated for Barça, you would have earned so match by betting against Barça Grin

Similarly with Real Madrid - in all the Champions League games (in the playoffs) it was underestimated. But this happens quite rarely - in my opinion it is better to look for underrated games in live bets. Today I watched a few tennis games and odds looked like a seesaw. As a result, I made a bet with a coefficient of 1.8, although before the game the tennis player was rated as 1.2.

Fortify

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Quote from: Get-Paid.com on July 04, 2022, 03:27:56 AM

Last night, Djokovic, one of the best tennis players on grass out there (potentially he is the favorite to win in Wimbledon) - had odds of 1.25 at peak against Timmy, after Timmy won one set.
Would you see that 1.25 as a value bet or not?

What if a tennis player in Wimbledon or some other big tournament, quickly goes 40-0 and you have him @ 1.10 to win the game (not the match, just that 40-0 game) - can this be a value bet?

What about a basketball match, the total line is 180.5 and the game in live goes 150.5 - is it worth taking the "over" because the line has dropped 30 points below the original line?

How do you define value in general?

I think it's an acquired skill to pick out these sort of value bets and still very hard o beat the sportbook analytics in the long run. With enough practice and a keen eye you could probably make it profitable, I was once able to pick something like 8 winning bets in a row for a free competition, although that's an extremely rare event - most of the time you'd barely be able to pick 2 or 3 correct in a row at a coin toss. Mispricing does happen and only someone who is very close to the sport is likely to know all the characteristics of who will win a certain event, in-play betting does have a lot more potential to disrupt the odds and give an individual an advantage.

Gianluca95

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Quote from: Get-Paid.com on July 04, 2022, 03:27:56 AM

Last night, Djokovic, one of the best tennis players on grass out there (potentially he is the favorite to win in Wimbledon) - had odds of 1.25 at peak against Timmy, after Timmy won one set.
Would you see that 1.25 as a value bet or not?

What if a tennis player in Wimbledon or some other big tournament, quickly goes 40-0 and you have him @ 1.10 to win the game (not the match, just that 40-0 game) - can this be a value bet?

What about a basketball match, the total line is 180.5 and the game in live goes 150.5 - is it worth taking the "over" because the line has dropped 30 points below the original line?

How do you define value in general?

Value bet is a kind of bet where a results of bet is really overestimated or underestimated. That bet is called it value bet. There were some match, this year we've seen many match of Barcelona where odds was really

underestimated for the competitor and overestimated for Barça, you would have earned so match by betting against Barça Grin

wheelz1200

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Quote from: Get-Paid.com on July 04, 2022, 03:27:56 AM

Last night, Djokovic, one of the best tennis players on grass out there (potentially he is the favorite to win in Wimbledon) - had odds of 1.25 at peak against Timmy, after Timmy won one set.
Would you see that 1.25 as a value bet or not?

What if a tennis player in Wimbledon or some other big tournament, quickly goes 40-0 and you have him @ 1.10 to win the game (not the match, just that 40-0 game) - can this be a value bet?

What about a basketball match, the total line is 180.5 and the game in live goes 150.5 - is it worth taking the "over" because the line has dropped 30 points below the original line?

How do you define value in general?

Yeah 1.25 is definitely value there. Did anyone really think djok would lose? I look at it as I they played 4 times would there be a game he would lose? If I answer myself no then the bet makes sense. That's how I perceive value when betting.

Ulven

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I recommend you consider sports betting live in Premier League and La Liga. If you do, try to check the momentum of the game before placing a bet and make sure you understand the sport, teams and players. In tennis, it is difficult to get valuable odds due to the rules imposed by the casino.

ralle14

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Quote from: Get-Paid.com on July 04, 2022, 03:27:56 AM

How do you define value in general?

For me it's how I perceive teams higher or lower than the given odds. The live bet you mentioned is a good example IMO as sometimes it's better to wait for favs to trail a bit before placing a bet so you'd get better odds and handicap. For the second example, there's still value but I think it's less compared to the first example as the totals tend to adjust much faster depending on the pace of the match but there are cases where the games is expected to go under but surprising go over and still hit the pre live total.

Boristhecat

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Quote from: Get-Paid.com on July 04, 2022, 03:27:56 AM

Last night, Djokovic, one of the best tennis players on grass out there (potentially he is the favorite to win in Wimbledon) - had odds of 1.25 at peak against Timmy, after Timmy won one set.
Would you see that 1.25 as a value bet or not?

What if a tennis player in Wimbledon or some other big tournament, quickly goes 40-0 and you have him @ 1.10 to win the game (not the match, just that 40-0 game) - can this be a value bet?

What about a basketball match, the total line is 180.5 and the game in live goes 150.5 - is it worth taking the "over" because the line has dropped 30 points below the original line?

How do you define value in general?

Betting on Djokovic was definitely not value bet yesterday. It seems to me that after Timmy equalized the score in sets, it was necessary to bet on him, since in fact he was able to equalize the game, but the odds for his victory were very large, since Djokovic remained a clear favorite. In the end, Djokovic won, but if he lost, then everyone who bet on him with a seemingly good odds of 1.25 would lose a lot of money - the profit was not worth the risk.

Naficopa

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Quote from: Bttzed03 on July 04, 2022, 07:42:39 AM

It's tough to do sports betting live and find those value bets. I used to do it on football's Premier League and/or La Liga. I usually bet on the favorite when the underdog leads at halftime or when they score first with plenty of time left in the second. Pre-match odds of 1.20 easily goes up to 1.50 or higher when that happens. If you're going to do it too, try to check if the momentum of the game is shifting or not before placing a bet. It also helps if you understand the sport and know the teams well.

That's correct - we have seen game changing at the last moment. Those who really make the right bets are the real champion.
Making blind moves is surly not the skill needed in gambling.

Bttzed03

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It's tough to do sports betting live and find those value bets. I used to do it on football's Premier League and/or La Liga. I usually bet on the favorite when the underdog leads at halftime or when they score first with plenty of time left in the second. Pre-match odds of 1.20 easily goes up to 1.50 or higher when that happens. If you're going to do it too, try to check if the momentum of the game is shifting or not before placing a bet. It also helps if you understand the sport and know the teams well.

Get-Paid.com

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Those prematch odds are based on the statistics which bookmaker use to create odds. There's a low chance for the result to not go that way but that's already included in there odds computation. Sometimes its good bet live if the result is not what many expecting or vice versa. At the end, This is still gambling and anything is possible to occur so answering odds value question, It's worth to pick a love bet for someone that was supposed to be dominating the game but somehow have a bad start because this only happens rarely and the odds usually increase at that particular moment.

Yesterday in the WNBA, Connecticut Suns played against Washington Mystics.
Prematch Suns were 1.30 and Mystics 3.50
Washington led by 17 in the first half, were completely dominant. Then you got 2 quarters of opposite domination by the Suns.

It ended 66-66 and went into an Overtime.
Once the OT started the odds were 1.50 on the Suns (some sites offered only 1.40) -

The Suns played at home and the momentum completely changed towards them - stll, it's risky but they won by 2 points.

Topic: Finding value bets - page 5. (Read 901 times)