first bitmain antminer S10 speculation thread (probably) - page 3.

QuintLeo

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Quote from: mattpatt007 on August 16, 2017, 12:27:30 PM

Does anyone know or could point in the direction how these processes even work?... people like Nebulous Inc. who are still "in design phase" of the Obelisk claim to have a US ASIC manufacturer, its kinda hard to compete with CN semiconductors? Noo?

Global Foundries 14nm foundry is in New York State, it used to be an IBM foundry.
They also have the ex-AMD foundry in Germany (Dresden I think?).

Intel has at least one foundry in the US, Austin I think?

There are NO foundries on the 14/16nm node in China that I am aware of, TSMC is in TAIWAN not in CHINA.

Samsung has their 14nm foundry somewhere in Korea.

The bulk of MINER manufacturing is done in China, but not the ASIC chips themselves.

mattpatt007

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Does anyone know or could point in the direction how these processes even work?... people like Nebulous Inc. who are still "in design phase" of the Obelisk claim to have a US ASIC manufacturer, its kinda hard to compete with CN semiconductors? Noo?

QuintLeo

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Quote from: FUKT on August 11, 2017, 12:39:28 PM

Sure, but competitors will not sleep forever (there are already quite a few good ASICs for altcoins) and may overtake the market of bitcoin miners, should they release a more powerful and economical miner for BTC sooner than Bitmain.

The only folks I can see managing that would be BitFury (their chip WAS in production before Bitmain's was on the current node, but Bitfury sells to BIG farms and manufacturers only so it ended up under the radar for quite a while).

Nobody else to date has managed to MATCH the S9 much less beat it - and I don't see any significant probability of that happening on the next node (very long shot if Intel, AMD, Samsung, or NVidia decided to enter the ASIC miner business, but I don't think that's likely as it's such a SMALL business compared to what any of those folks do NOW).

The reason the L3+ isn't as close to saturation as the S9 is threefold.

(1) S9 has been getting sold a LOT longer, there are a TON more of them in use.
(2) The S9 has competition (Caanan/Avalon 721/741, whatever BW.COM has been using internally, Bitfury) that is fairly CLOSE to it's efficiency that has been selling for almost a year now (bit over perhaps) and HELPING it saturate the Bitcoin market.
(3) The price rise of Litecoin during the last 4 months is over 10 to 1 - the comparable price rise of Bitcoin on a 10 to 1 ratio needed most of the last *2 years*, which has allowed a lot more time for folks to buy the hashrate up to the same ballpark as the price has gone up.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

@ the yankees

yep.. I would look to make an asic better then the L3

as in terms of waste the L3 is 4x better then the s-9

sha-256 is flatlined for efficiency at close to .11 watts a gh

with no major improvement.

This is good as BTC may just get more valuable as time goes on.

I see much more alt coin growth to come.

the industry over all is over 124 billion

I see 300 billion in under 5 years.

TheYankeesWin!

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So why build a better then an s-9 which is 20% lost to power/maintenance

When the L3 is way better then the s-9 it is 5% lost to power/maintenance.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: FUKT on August 11, 2017, 12:39:28 PM

Sure, but competitors will not sleep forever (there are already quite a few good ASICs for altcoins) and may overtake the market of bitcoin miners, should they release a more powerful and economical miner for BTC sooner than Bitmain.

Not happening.

It simply is easier to do other coins then btc/sha 256

Then trade for btc.

So asic builders will target other coins.

BTC is a big pile of money in a wallet that can be 'mined' by putting in a password.

What do I mean? 16 mill + coins are in wallets just under 5 million coins are in the 'ground'

So I mine ltc cheap and trade for btc
I mine x11 cheap and trade for btc

I have No incentive to mine btc at a high price.

look at LTC only 5% of coins are lost to maintenance

FUKT

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Sure, but competitors will not sleep forever (there are already quite a few good ASICs for altcoins) and may overtake the market of bitcoin miners, should they release a more powerful and economical miner for BTC sooner than Bitmain.

QuintLeo

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Quote from: Goms on July 25, 2016, 01:23:51 PM

Bitmain does not have a high demand for S9, if they are thinking of bringing in an S10, they had better sell at a reasonable price. Miners are not making profit like before, buying an expensive rig is the last thing they want to do.

They may not have AS HIGH of demand for the S9 as they did in the first 3 months, but they STILL sell out every batch in a day or two when they release one.
Sure seems like the demand is still high.

FUKT

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Quote from: DOPECOINRULES on July 24, 2016, 05:42:06 PM

My professor and a few of the students believe we have put togther a machine that can actually hash out 1.5 zeta hash

Bring it in! I'll give you 10 bucks for it! Grin

QuintLeo

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I seriously doubt we will EVER see an S10 model - Bitmain seems to have given up on rack-mount "huge power consumption" miner designs since their small-size single-tube type designs are ALREADY pushing so much power.

S-11 will show up probably 6 months to a year after the "next semiconductor node" hits full production - be it 7nm or 10nm - as Bitmain isn't big enough to break into the early days and too much of the production of GF/TSMC/Samsung is earmarked to the BIG BOYS like Samsung, Apple, AMD, Nvidia, and IBM.

philipma1957

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Quote from: Sandal_Hat on August 07, 2017, 10:10:50 AM

So, anymore speculation on this? Anyone hear anything new?

Why on earth would bitmain want to kill off their s-7 cloud mining on hashnest.

The answer is they don't and we will not see an s10 until hashnest s-7 goes to the red rather then firmly in the black.

At the monment the s-7 is at 45-50 percent power cost

Ie firmly in the black .

When the s-7. Is at 95 percent power cost they would look to upgrade to the s-10

fanatic26

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No. This is one of those junk threads started by someone that doesnt understand how the industry works.

Sandal_Hat

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So, anymore speculation on this? Anyone hear anything new?

Big_swifty

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Quote from: DOPECOINRULES on July 24, 2016, 05:42:06 PM

My professor and a few of the students believe we have put togther a machine that can actually hash out 1.5 zeta hash

I need to know more......please advise if you dream a lot or there is some substance to your belief.

QuintLeo

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Quote from: lemmyK on July 28, 2016, 05:00:54 AM

Quote from: lottery248 on May 28, 2016, 08:16:53 PM

so everyone is predicting with the antminer S9, right? even though S9 is ready to release, i am a bit curious about if the newer version of antminer is gonna release like S10 as mentioned. if nobody has had posted anything ever regarding the S10, then this will be the first ever thread.

if you wanna speculate with the S10, please leave some of the guess here.

i would guess about specification...

this miner will be released in the early Q2 2017, after the S9 is released.

for mining power, at least 15 Terahash/s at 150W each Terahash; because the production of chips will probably be done in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation - TSMC (at my prediction, 10 nanometer).

why 15 terahash? because the transistors are ever increasing without enlarging physically, instead, by shrinking the fabrication of silicon. and for the 150W per TH, you know, a little amount of power can run a lot of things nowadays, and unlike 32 or even 16 nm.

for the data port, i think either USB 3.1 or ethernet 10Gbit would be more reasonable, mainly because the convenience for the hobbyist, or for the noobs; for the ethernet, explicitly all of them consists of.

indeed outlook will just like S4, i am not sure if S6/8 was ever released, if not released, then this thread is predicting if bitmain is bringing the S series ending with even number.

for the influence? this kind of miner will let the bitcoin network more fierce and more kind of altcoin will be gone popular as more people gets to mine, the bitcoin price will more likely soar up at least $1000. this kind of miner would gone insane in demand until a newer miner which could ever defeat this vorpal.

i am not sure if i am getting off-topic, but let's see what you guys think to this speculation.

for the data port, i think either USB 3.1 or ethernet 10Gbit would be more reasonable, mainly because the convenience for the hobbyist, or for the noobs; for the ethernet, explicitly all of them consists of--- Do not forget to pay some of the license fees for USB and 10 gigabytes is unnecessary and expensive. It would be unnecessarily expensive already so expensive machines

Serious overkill. A 10MBit port will handle ANY miner for the forseeable future.
1 Gigabit probably would be the installation, as those are common cheap and the norm any more.

USB for a self-contained miner is dumb.
Bitmain seems to have dropped the concept entirely since the U3, thank goodness!

lemmyK

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ASIC on 16 and 10 nm will be sensitive to production. and too expensive. and do not forget to RMA case...bad with big machines..
Bitmain avoid making large machine. for it is better to have smaller machines, and also because of the efficiency and recoveries of. and particularly money Wink

.
but the current situation calls already for bigger machines of higher performance in th/s becouse ROI..... Sad

price for BT is about 650, and that's not what we expected after halving.
If wants bitmain $ 2,000 per miner that must give at least 20 th/s. NOW

lemmyK

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Quote from: lottery248 on May 28, 2016, 08:16:53 PM

so everyone is predicting with the antminer S9, right? even though S9 is ready to release, i am a bit curious about if the newer version of antminer is gonna release like S10 as mentioned. if nobody has had posted anything ever regarding the S10, then this will be the first ever thread.

if you wanna speculate with the S10, please leave some of the guess here.

i would guess about specification...

this miner will be released in the early Q2 2017, after the S9 is released.

for mining power, at least 15 Terahash/s at 150W each Terahash; because the production of chips will probably be done in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation - TSMC (at my prediction, 10 nanometer).

why 15 terahash? because the transistors are ever increasing without enlarging physically, instead, by shrinking the fabrication of silicon. and for the 150W per TH, you know, a little amount of power can run a lot of things nowadays, and unlike 32 or even 16 nm.

for the data port, i think either USB 3.1 or ethernet 10Gbit would be more reasonable, mainly because the convenience for the hobbyist, or for the noobs; for the ethernet, explicitly all of them consists of.

indeed outlook will just like S4, i am not sure if S6/8 was ever released, if not released, then this thread is predicting if bitmain is bringing the S series ending with even number.

for the influence? this kind of miner will let the bitcoin network more fierce and more kind of altcoin will be gone popular as more people gets to mine, the bitcoin price will more likely soar up at least $1000. this kind of miner would gone insane in demand until a newer miner which could ever defeat this vorpal.

i am not sure if i am getting off-topic, but let's see what you guys think to this speculation.

for the data port, i think either USB 3.1 or ethernet 10Gbit would be more reasonable, mainly because the convenience for the hobbyist, or for the noobs; for the ethernet, explicitly all of them consists of--- Do not forget to pay some of the license fees for USB and 10 gigabytes is unnecessary and expensive. It would be unnecessarily expensive already so expensive machines

HyperMega

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Quote from: leowonderful on July 27, 2016, 03:15:45 PM

Well, Avalon's supposedly going to make a 16NM miner sooner or later, the Avalon 7. Not sure if that's true or not, but if Avalon actually make a miner capable of rivalling the S9, they might start researching the 10NM tech in hopes of making a more efficient miner. Bitfury's also purported to be making a 16nm miner, although those things cost your soul to buy. ASIC technology will get to 10nm sooner or later, but the 16NM process is still young and maturing; chips can only get more efficient even in the same gen.

If that is the final truth Wink

, also Qualcomm and Mediatek would not go for 10nm so early for their smartphone processors. They are doing this because they are expecting more performance and better efficiency (longer battery run time) at lower production costs (ideally). This drives the semiconductor industry since 50 years.

You will get for sure higher performance and better efficiency at 10nm compared to 16nm. But that the production costs are reduced in parallel is very questionable. This good old Moore's Law effect disappeared already at the 28nm to 16nm transition.
I bet, that Bitmain pays more for the pure 16nm silicon than they did for 28nm normalized to a TH/s.
And a Bitcoin ASIC is much more sensitive to production costs than a smartphone processor, especially if you have free or almost free power.

leowonderful

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Bitcoin FTW!

Quote from: HyperMega on July 27, 2016, 03:00:02 PM

10nm is not so far!

TSMC and Samsung already did several 10nm tape-outs (e.g. smartphone processors of Qualcomm and Mediatek). These kind of technology will be pretty sure part of the next gen smartphones in 2017.

Globalfoundries bought IBM's microelectronic manufacturing business completely in 2015. GF/IBM skips 10nm and goes directly to 7nm, but there will be for sure no 7nm products in 2017.

Last potential foundry player (in this league) is Intel. They are probably ahead of TSMC and Samsung, but very picky with respect of selecting customers.

Meanwhile Bitmain is a “midsize” TSMC customer. If they want, they probably can get a 10nm production slot. But why should they invest another $10M NRE if nobody is challenging them at 16nm?
Anyway I'm sure that Bitmain has already access to the TSMC 10nm technology and is designing the next gen ASIC. So they will go into production as soon as they need to.

Well, Avalon's supposedly going to make a 16NM miner sooner or later, the Avalon 7. Not sure if that's true or not, but if Avalon actually make a miner capable of rivalling the S9, they might start researching the 10NM tech in hopes of making a more efficient miner. Bitfury's also purported to be making a 16nm miner, although those things cost your soul to buy. ASIC technology will get to 10nm sooner or later, but the 16NM process is still young and maturing; chips can only get more efficient even in the same gen.

HyperMega

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10nm is not so far!

TSMC and Samsung already did several 10nm tape-outs (e.g. smartphone processors of Qualcomm and Mediatek). These kind of technology will be pretty sure part of the next gen smartphones in 2017.

Globalfoundries bought IBM's microelectronic manufacturing business completely in 2015. GF/IBM skips 10nm and goes directly to 7nm, but there will be for sure no 7nm products in 2017.

Last potential foundry player (in this league) is Intel. They are probably ahead of TSMC and Samsung, but very picky with respect of selecting customers.

Meanwhile Bitmain is a “midsize” TSMC customer. If they want, they probably can get a 10nm production slot. But why should they invest another $10M NRE if nobody is challenging them at 16nm?
Anyway I'm sure that Bitmain has already access to the TSMC 10nm technology and is designing the next gen ASIC. So they will go into production as soon as they need to.

Topic: first bitmain antminer S10 speculation thread (probably) - page 3. (Read 29600 times)