First Greece...who next? | Bitcointalksearch.org

greBit

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Quote from: manselr on August 04, 2015, 11:31:22 AM

Quote from: Elwar on August 04, 2015, 07:38:25 AM

Quote from: neurotypical on August 03, 2015, 07:03:35 PM

Puerto Rico just default, is everyone in here sleeping or what?

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13203815/1/why-a-puerto-rican-default-is-more-dangerous-than-you-think.html

And then:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/04/business/dealbook/puerto-rico-decides-to-skip-bond-payment.html

Cant wait to see what happens with the stock market tomorrow.

The biggest impact on Bitcoin usually comes when the country starts raiding bank accounts or if their currency will be impacted.

Interesting development to watch though.

But the people need to be aware on Bitcoin first. A country can become an absolute mess like Greece or Puerto Rico right now, and BTC may not have an impact beyond mere speculation of already Bitcoiners. We need people to be aware that the alternative exists first, but like some have said, it may take a lot of years before the average population is aware, and in countries like PR and Greece things arrive slower technologically speaking.

I think it all relies on each other. The more adoption in countries which have potential technical infrastructure to support bitcoin and people are aware of it, talking about it and slowly adopting it... The news will of course travel to another country, simply based on hype. As hype increases, even more shop keepers and traders accept btc, and bitcoin grows to be even stronger. Maybe that is enough for a country's interest to peak in btc, just a speculation.

manselr

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Quote from: Elwar on August 04, 2015, 07:38:25 AM

Quote from: neurotypical on August 03, 2015, 07:03:35 PM

Puerto Rico just default, is everyone in here sleeping or what?

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13203815/1/why-a-puerto-rican-default-is-more-dangerous-than-you-think.html

And then:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/04/business/dealbook/puerto-rico-decides-to-skip-bond-payment.html

Cant wait to see what happens with the stock market tomorrow.

The biggest impact on Bitcoin usually comes when the country starts raiding bank accounts or if their currency will be impacted.

Interesting development to watch though.

But the people need to be aware on Bitcoin first. A country can become an absolute mess like Greece or Puerto Rico right now, and BTC may not have an impact beyond mere speculation of already Bitcoiners. We need people to be aware that the alternative exists first, but like some have said, it may take a lot of years before the average population is aware, and in countries like PR and Greece things arrive slower technologically speaking.

Elwar

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Viva Ut Vivas

Quote from: neurotypical on August 03, 2015, 07:03:35 PM

Puerto Rico just default, is everyone in here sleeping or what?

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13203815/1/why-a-puerto-rican-default-is-more-dangerous-than-you-think.html

And then:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/04/business/dealbook/puerto-rico-decides-to-skip-bond-payment.html

Cant wait to see what happens with the stock market tomorrow.

The biggest impact on Bitcoin usually comes when the country starts raiding bank accounts or if their currency will be impacted.

Interesting development to watch though.

gablay12

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Quote from: OROBTC on June 28, 2015, 02:42:59 PM

...

Here's what I would be watching for.

1) If there is a "contagion" (problems similar to Cyprus & Greece spreading to countries like Spain & Italy), and if the negotiations for other countries go poorly, then bigger countries like France are at risk. If France has big problems, then Germany will for sure. If Germany looks like it will go over the falls, then the USA will too -- in 48 hours, maybe less.

2) Perhaps the ECB and European leaders will decide to "Ctrl P", print the money to cover losses from Greece. Zero Hedge JUST reported that the Euro was down almost 1.5% (trading started some 40 minutes ago if I read that right). 1.5% is a big move in foreign exchange.

3) One should not forget about or ignore Japan and China. Both are places where an accident could easily happen.

4) My guess is that the US$ will be a relative safe haven, for at least a while.

* * *

Watching and taking action are two different things. Even in America it now seems prudent to have a big chunk of CA$H outside the banks now.

Gold and Bitcoin too.

Germany has strong economy and does not seem to collapse in near future.

USA can not have a default as long as USD is the most used convertible currency.

NorrisK

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Isn't all that Japan need more citizens? They could stimulate child births somehow or increase the number of immigrants that are allowed into Japan each year. As far as I know (correct me if I'm wrong), Japan still hands out a VERY limited amount of resident visas to foreigners (was something like 500 a year?).

Miracal

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Quote from: Damiantroll on August 04, 2015, 01:49:28 AM

It's going to be Spain next. They're also in the economic shitter (25% unemployment, large amounts of debt). In addition to that, Spain contains 3 potential countries within it (Galacia, Basque region, and Catalonia) that would take substantial economic power away from Madrid.

Spain has the least probability of being next, it has already overcome its problems and now the rich are richer. There have been improvements in the automobile sector, highest records of sales were created this year. More employment available than before, people are shopping and spending more which proves there is wealth with people, they're contended and economy lives on.

Damiantroll

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It's going to be Spain next. They're also in the economic shitter (25% unemployment, large amounts of debt). In addition to that, Spain contains 3 potential countries within it (Galacia, Basque region, and Catalonia) that would take substantial economic power away from Madrid.

greBit

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Quote from: neurotypical on August 03, 2015, 07:03:35 PM

Puerto Rico just default, is everyone in here sleeping or what?

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13203815/1/why-a-puerto-rican-default-is-more-dangerous-than-you-think.html

And then:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/04/business/dealbook/puerto-rico-decides-to-skip-bond-payment.html

Cant wait to see what happens with the stock market tomorrow.

The reason why there is no hype about the Puerto Rican default is because nobody really cares about that Island. People from the btc world are not showing their compassion as they were for Greece because they know the chances of bitcoin working out in that island are really less, so they don't even care to know what happens next. I hope things work out for them, otherwise after 10 years they will in debt of 40,000$ on every man, woman and even child.

HarHarHar9965

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Quote from: knowhow on August 03, 2015, 10:03:16 PM

Portugal already tightened seat belts and this in the way of recovery even though slow, is able to get out of the hole. Spain, Italy, Argentina I believe will be the next to get lost in a deep internal crisis. While the corrupt politician does fortune of taxes paid by the people only the bottom will be the fate of the Country.

Spain has recovered very well and they are doing really good, I don't think that it will really affect them and even if it does, the impact will be 10x as what people have been assuming it to be. I don't have much knowledge about Argentina or Italy but just want to see it is not so easy for economy of a country to just collapse. Shit hit the fans for Greeks but they still got it together, and we are comparing it to A class countries.

knowhow

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Portugal already tightened seat belts and this in the way of recovery even though slow, is able to get out of the hole. Spain, Italy, Argentina I believe will be the next to get lost in a deep internal crisis. While the corrupt politician does fortune of taxes paid by the people only the bottom will be the fate of the Country.

BIT-Sharon

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Tightening policy is an important issue for most families and enterprises. After referendum, more and more people and enterprises can't pay tax and begin to transfer overseas, so the capital will no doubt go overseas.

Pab

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Russia will be not next after Greece,but biggest,if we talk about bankrupt.Portugal already is ,so i think France

Very close to be bankrupt is Portoryko,Ukraine already is.List will be long,welcome in 21century paradise world

neurotypical

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Puerto Rico just default, is everyone in here sleeping or what?

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13203815/1/why-a-puerto-rican-default-is-more-dangerous-than-you-think.html

And then:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/04/business/dealbook/puerto-rico-decides-to-skip-bond-payment.html

Cant wait to see what happens with the stock market tomorrow.

faridkifly

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I can't predict who is the next.
But I hope greece is the first and the last..

bojan92

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In Europe there are a lot of countries facing with the problems that are now on stage in Greece. Italy and Spain have very big problems dealing with their economy crisis. I think one of them will be the next Greece. Hope it won't happen, there are a lot of people who will suffer if this happens.

EternalWingsofGod

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Quote from: TinEye on June 29, 2015, 02:58:20 AM

japan situation is different they are not under a central authority, they are under their own istituion, their crisis can be fixed like greece would fix their economic issue when it will leave europe, on the other hand, italy seems to be the third that is akin to greece, i think they have a bigger chance to be the next one

I agree with tineye on this one Japan is able to handle its debt because its internal, if Greece gets the international lenders off its back and defaults it has a better chance at managing internal debt to Greek citizens under a Soverign owned central bank than under the current model its reliant on.
That said it will be painful for a few years akin to grabbing a leech of your skin and pulling it off but I presume they will make a relatively quick economic recovery.

It is interesting that a good chunk of Greece's debt is in part due to military spending and buying defective goods from Germany.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/apr/19/greece-military-spending-debt-crisis
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-greeces-military-budget-is-so-high-2015-6

Erdogan

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Japan did an economical harakiri, it started with mr abe.

Of the three arrows of his plan, they have only executed one; expansion of the money volume. Nothing to see or hear of structual reforms, a politician phrase for starting to do value creation in stead of value destruction. It was probably futile anyway, since they would rely on centrally planned reforms in stead of the market.

The money volume expansion, with the necessarily connected zero interest rate policy, distorts the capital structure (the factories, the farms, the shops, the bulldozers and the trucks), therefore destroys the value generation capacity of the economy. Yes they have no babies and a bunch of old people doing nothing, that is the consequence more than the reason. The tsunami and the triple destruction of nature; earth, air and sea, was a real problem that set them back.

The second arrow was fiscal stimulus, I take that to mean publicly funded and wasted, centrally planned, capital investments. I think they just increased the value added tax.

No, it was a harakiri, they are bleeding, soon to exhale their last breath.

Cearea11

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Quote from: Don007 on June 30, 2015, 08:42:13 AM

Quote from: Q7 on June 30, 2015, 08:06:12 AM

The question is, if Greece managed to leave euro, that could mean other countries which are also in debt can also follow suit and do the same. Eventually when more countries follow the same action, it can only mean that the whole union will collapse. These has been projected to happen for some time now and I see no other solution.

Maybe, in the end, that's the best solution: a collapse of the whole union. Although it's hard to say, but I think many (wealthy) countries in the EU think they should never went for the Union in the first place. Many people here in the Netherlands argue that we should have kept the Gulden instead of going for the Euro. This has huge advantages, but sure, it also has disadvantages.. I don't know what would have been the best.

And If the whole union will collapse, USA will rule on us. We really need to have a UE, with same laws, where goods can circulate without any fee. Only in that way we can improve our countries. If we come back to be single states, USA and other powers will trade only where is more convenient. The countries with higher debt will go in default and they will buy industries, societies for a bit of money. So, in my opinion if Greece go out from UE, we need to be more united to face this crysis.

bryant.coleman

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Quote from: Elwar on June 30, 2015, 06:54:22 AM

This could be worse than Greece. Greece doesn't pay the IMF and the IMF will just have to deal with it.
Japan doesn't pay the banks and pensions and it hits its own citizens. Double hit.

In this case, Japan might be having an advantage when compared to Greece. Greece has no freedom on extending the deadlines, or lowering the interest rates. On the other hand, Japan is having the advantage of having the freedom in delaying the pension payments (since both the pension fund and the debt issuing body is controlled by the Japanese government), or paying only a part of it.

ifightformerkel

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Quote from: Q7 on June 30, 2015, 08:06:12 AM

The question is, if Greece managed to leave euro, that could mean other countries which are also in debt can also follow suit and do the same. Eventually when more countries follow the same action, it can only mean that the whole union will collapse. These has been projected to happen for some time now and I see no other solution.

You are right, when after greece another country will left the euro than its over.
But it will be a new beginning, every country will choose again his currency,
it will be the best way in my opinion like it 15 years ago was in europe.

Topic: First Greece...who next? (Read 3257 times)