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Topic: First Greece...who next? - page 3. (Read 3257 times)

legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 1217
June 29, 2015, 03:36:56 AM
#13
Also the older population are living very long and there is a labor shortage and big burden on the young as many Japanese are not getting married or having children. There is a big demographic problem at present in Japan that needs to be addressed if the rest of the economic issues need to get solved. The same with Greece, you have too much of the population living in the cities so infrastructure in the small towns and villages and agriculture along with small manufacturing has to blossom again.

A lot of discussions have been ongoing on the Japanese demographic crisis. But still, I feel that the demography there isn't as bad as some people would like to project. The birth rates are really low, but recently Japan overtook Germany in that parameter. This is a big achievement, considering that Japan is a homogenous society with uniform birth rate across the regions, and Germany is a multicultural society with a large high-fertility immigrant population. Also, the health sector in Japan is quite impressive, making it possible for retirement age to be extended considerably.
hero member
Activity: 639
Merit: 500
June 29, 2015, 02:58:20 AM
#12
japan situation is different they are not under a central authority, they are under their own istituion, their crisis can be fixed like greece would fix their economic issue when it will leave europe, on the other hand, italy seems to be the third that is akin to greece, i think they have a bigger chance to be the next one
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1023
Oikos.cash | Decentralized Finance on Tron
June 29, 2015, 01:58:08 AM
#11
Consider what happens to a population that is A) shrinking, while B) the government continues to pile on additional debts to stimulate the economy, which is exactly what Japan is doing with its last-gasp Abenomics economic policies.

Right now more than 60% of the Japanese tax revenues are used for servicing the debt. This is a huge amount, and can't go on for ever. They need to decrease their spending, especially in the defense sector. But right now, I don't think that it is possible, as the threat of a Chinese invasion is looming large.

Also the older population are living very long and there is a labor shortage and big burden on the young as many Japanese are not getting married or having children. There is a big demographic problem at present in Japan that needs to be addressed if the rest of the economic issues need to get solved. The same with Greece, you have too much of the population living in the cities so infrastructure in the small towns and villages and agriculture along with small manufacturing has to blossom again.
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 1217
June 28, 2015, 11:57:16 PM
#10
Consider what happens to a population that is A) shrinking, while B) the government continues to pile on additional debts to stimulate the economy, which is exactly what Japan is doing with its last-gasp Abenomics economic policies.

Right now more than 60% of the Japanese tax revenues are used for servicing the debt. This is a huge amount, and can't go on for ever. They need to decrease their spending, especially in the defense sector. But right now, I don't think that it is possible, as the threat of a Chinese invasion is looming large.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
June 28, 2015, 11:38:49 PM
#9
Consider what happens to a population that is A) shrinking, while B) the government continues to pile on additional debts to stimulate the economy, which is exactly what Japan is doing with its last-gasp Abenomics economic policies.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1023
Oikos.cash | Decentralized Finance on Tron
June 28, 2015, 11:30:00 PM
#8
Japan is primed for a collapse.

And look who's coming in with the third highest debt to GDP ratio after Greece...


Japan has a stronger economy with much more exports and more reserves, in fact some american banks made the Greece bankrupt

I agree WALL ST was one of the main reasons Greece crashed..and no one talks about this..Also the phat corrupt politicians and judicial system in Greece and also EU laws..Greece being the cradle of democracy itself by principle alone has to stand up to the bullying and reform its own house. Now there is a ministry of corruption so if that gets to work and weed out all the nasties, gather up all the black monies that were taken out of the country by the elite, punish through a strong justice system all those that crippled the country by default and bring in alternative economic solutions to the Country, then things can get better for the Greeks. If China starts selling the U.S trillions of bonds it holds, then we see how the U.S Economy will get pear shaped but for now China is holding the U.S in its hands..
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 1217
June 28, 2015, 10:08:54 PM
#7
Most of the Japanese debt is being held by the Japanese passport holders, unlike the case in Greece and the United States, where foreign institutions are holding a majority of the national debt. And the Japanese are doing their best to bring down the national debt, with some success achieved during the last few years. Japan is in a much better position, when compared to the United States.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 1000
The All-in-One Cryptocurrency Exchange
June 28, 2015, 02:49:01 PM
#6
Japan is primed for a collapse.

And look who's coming in with the third highest debt to GDP ratio after Greece...


Japan has a stronger economy with much more exports and more reserves, in fact some american banks made the Greece bankrupt
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1007
Live like there is no tomorrow!
June 28, 2015, 02:47:15 PM
#5
Watching and taking action are two different things.  Even in America it now seems prudent to have a big chunk of CA$H outside the banks now.

Gold and Bitcoin too.

To have some chunks of cashs and other kind of currency (like Bitcoin), and things like gold etc is a wise choice if you ask me. I'm afraid that once Greece actually collapse, indeed more countries might follow. If that happens, I think an effect will be triggered that more countries (and bigger countries) will face the same future. If we are really going to experience national and international bank runs and other problems with our economic system, I  think Bitcoin and gold, silver etc will be worth much more: or, better said, will be worth at least something.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
June 28, 2015, 02:42:59 PM
#4
...

Here's what I would be watching for.

1) If there is a "contagion" (problems similar to Cyprus & Greece spreading to countries like Spain & Italy), and if the negotiations for other countries go poorly, then bigger countries like France are at risk.  If France has big problems, then Germany will for sure.  If Germany looks like it will go over the falls, then the USA will too -- in 48 hours, maybe less.

2) Perhaps the ECB and European leaders will decide to "Ctrl P", print the money to cover losses from Greece.  Zero Hedge JUST reported that the Euro was down almost 1.5% (trading started some 40 minutes ago if I read that right).  1.5% is a big move in foreign exchange.

3) One should not forget about or ignore Japan and China.  Both are places where an accident could easily happen.

4) My guess is that the US$ will be a relative safe haven, for at least a while.

*   *   *

Watching and taking action are two different things.  Even in America it now seems prudent to have a big chunk of CA$H outside the banks now.

Gold and Bitcoin too.
legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 2386
Viva Ut Vivas
June 28, 2015, 02:42:50 PM
#3
I don't really think that it is only the gross debt that determines whether the economic system of a country is going to collapse or not.

When we take a look at Greece, they could easily receive more money from the EU by just applying to the given rules. However, they appear to be too stubborn. Sure, these rules are not nice, but if you see how much money the EU is pumping into Greece (in order to try to save it, remember that!) I think they're in a position to set the rules.

They sacrifice some sovereignty for a bail out from the EU because their debt is out of control and they can't pay for it.

They can do that. The US debt is out of control and they have no outside entity to sacrifice their sovereignty to for a bailout.

Other than the Federal Reserve who will have to print out a whole lot more money.
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1007
Live like there is no tomorrow!
June 28, 2015, 02:38:17 PM
#2
I don't really think that it is only the gross debt that determines whether the economic system of a country is going to collapse or not.

When we take a look at Greece, they could easily receive more money from the EU by just applying to the given rules. However, they appear to be too stubborn. Sure, these rules are not nice, but if you see how much money the EU is pumping into Greece (in order to try to save it, remember that!) I think they're in a position to set the rules.
legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 2386
Viva Ut Vivas
June 28, 2015, 02:33:43 PM
#1
Japan is primed for a collapse.

And look who's coming in with the third highest debt to GDP ratio after Greece...

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