Football/Soccer Winning Strategy - page 3.

temple

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on May 01, 2024, 03:14:50 AM

In my opinion, this is a rather controversial strategy. Even if a team scores 1 goal, this does not mean that it will score a second. And the odds for the winning team of 1.3, in my opinion, are quite small. It is hardly worth playing with such small odds. After all, your possible win is 3 times less than your possible loss. This is not something to follow. Even if you win 3 times in a row on bets with odds of 1.3, then 1 loss is enough to destroy all your winnings.
As for the probability of victory for a team that has already scored 1 goal, then it is necessary to collect reliable statistics. Has anyone collected such statistics?

"Even if you win 3 times in a row on bets with odds of 1.3, then 1 loss is enough to destroy all your winnings."

That is probably the best explanation why this "strategy" won't work out long-term. Coincidence can be running against you all the time and what Julien_Olynpic brought up here is important to consider. Even if you find one game with odds of 1.3 where you think that the bookmaker is getting it slightly wrong to the players' favor, in the long run if you play 100 games with odds of 1.3 the bookmaker is also less likely to get it wrong, meaning that the remaining margin for the player (if there is any) will approach zero, the more games are being played at that odds range.

@cybron wouldn't the best way to find out be to simulate it? You could go for it and behave "as if" you were placing bets exactly as you described and then share the results here. I am quite sure that over time the strategy will play out against you. The problem is that you shouldn't even vary your bet size, which makes it boring as it would purely be a bankroll game, hoping that due to pursuing that strategy you got an edge over the house. But I have seen 1.3 go wrong so many times that 3-way-parlays aren't even that promising at all.

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In my opinion, this is a rather controversial strategy. Even if a team scores 1 goal, this does not mean that it will score a second. And the odds for the winning team of 1.3, in my opinion, are quite small. It is hardly worth playing with such small odds. After all, your possible win is 3 times less than your possible loss. This is not something to follow. Even if you win 3 times in a row on bets with odds of 1.3, then 1 loss is enough to destroy all your winnings.
As for the probability of victory for a team that has already scored 1 goal, then it is necessary to collect reliable statistics. Has anyone collected such statistics?

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Quote from: pawel7777 on April 30, 2024, 07:08:48 PM

Has anyone seen any statistics on how often the teams that take the lead first end up winning? Would be interesting to see.

There was a study in 2016 that make a research to 5 domestic leagues, when a team score first the chance to win is 76.25%, if we calculate the odds using this winning percentage, the odds will be @1.33.

It's not really a winning strategy because the bookie already calculate the odds correctly, so the risk to reward ratio is fair. We could say it's a winning strategy if the odds is higher than what the bookies calculated, which mean we're have the advantage.

Quote from: https://barcainnovationhub.fcbarcelona.com/blog/examining-the-effect-of-scoring-first-in-the-outcome-of-a-football-match/

The study published in the magazine International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport in 2016, was based on the analysis of all the matches played during the 2014/15 season in the English Premier League (n=380), the Italian Ligue 1 (n=380), the Spanish La Liga (n=380), the Italian Serie A (n=380), and the German Bundesliga (n=306). The results show that if home teams score first, they finally win 84.85% of the matches. On the other hand, if the visitor scores first, 76.25% of them finally win the match.

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That actually does make sense about the first team to score is the likely winner of the game but I'm kind of on the fence with this one because I want to make sure that this is true because there's the factor of comebacks and underdogs taking the wins, it's a devastating thing to jump in with this really good advice if you don't know what you're talking about. I might've just found a new thing to do, watching matches and seeing if this is true to some level, might not post my result though as I'm not yet sure if this will work. Most of the time that I do bets, I almost always go for the lowest odds since they're most likely to win, safe gaming has been my thing so I'm not keen on trying something new.

Bananington

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Surely, It might prove difficult to play according to any strategy when betting mostly when it is supposed to be a game that is thought to be as easy as hockey.
To me even second half betting isn't a thing anymore for many Sportsbooks site and if the goal is to win easily, stick to popular games that may be easier to understand or just better play for the fun of it.

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I have always suggested a game mode that I call "elastic bet rule".
Basically you decide what to play based on a certain pattern and then apply it to your games.

Quote from: bitbollo on November 01, 2015, 06:14:29 AM

....
8° Try to apply a rule in a betting (an elastic rule sound better Cheesy

) ....
Like... in the horse racing with more of 3 miles with hurdles some one as correlated (with a good R and good causation), when there is no an horse "strong favourite @ < 2" .... the horse quoted from 7 to 10 are really favourite, also when a 3 -6.99 horse run. Yes I know it's sound strange, but It can really work in a long period....
Another 2 easy example, in a dog greyhound, very often the position 3-6 are (no handicap) are unlike by the runners, due the high number of collisions during the run...
In wta tennis, the top ten after winning a set are really favored to take a final win....
....

only problem in this specific case: low odds + parlay bets.

But I'm more concerned about the parlay bet aspect.... Maybe this rule works in 75% of cases, but with a parlay bet you risk losing because you include the 25% of cases in which it doesn't work.

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I used the same strategy a few times to create a small parlay with 2.00+ decimal odds, and it can backfire most of the time because the live odds can bait you into thinking they're that favored while the real odds could be much closer.

You're lucky if you can pull off several small parlay wins through live betting, as blindly taking favored teams can quickly throw away their lead if they're the underdog during the pre-live betting.

Regardless of the downsides, I still recommend the strategy to those who haven't tried it, and always take note of the teams you're live betting.

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Quote from: cabron on April 28, 2024, 01:35:18 PM

So what I did is apply this same strategy on Soccer as well. Remember to do this on live matches.
So when you see game 1-0 and the team that score 1 has the odds of 1.30, I guess this is a good bet already. Just add another of these live games for your multibet and hope to win. Also, make sure it's already 2nd half.

Note: Not Guaranteed But Worth Trying.

I have to disagree with you!

I don't know what hockey matches are like because I don't even follow this sport, but in football I can tell you that it is a very unpredictable sport.
Maybe this changes a lot between countries, but here in Brazil, for example, it's not uncommon to see a favorite team start winning and lose until the end of the game.
In fact, I would list some sports that I consider quite unpredictable and where I would never apply this technique... Firstly, it is Football, in addition to baseball, basketball and American football.

So, I would say you have been lucky so far, be careful with your next bets. Anyway, please keep updating us on your results.... I could be wrong.

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Quote from: cabron on April 28, 2024, 01:35:18 PM

So here are his words: Find a sport like Hockey where teams normally just score a few and usually the first team that scores wins the game. And then find a casino that lists live matches. And then Parlay on 2-3 games. Don't go more than that or it gets riskier he emphasizes.

As they say, if something seems too good to be true, it probably is.
If a simple strategy like that worked long-term, all sports-betting sites would've gone bankrupt long time ago. The reality is, the only good strategy is when you can get the pay-out rate exceeding the actual chances, which rarely happen and requires bookies to misjudge the odds.
When you bet on live events when one side already took a lead, you'd usually get super low odds to the point it's not worth the effort. I'd argue that the opposite strategy has a better chance of success: bet on live events on the losing team. You'd probably lose most of the time, but the proceeds from the fewer wins could be high enough to make it work.

Quote from: cabron on April 28, 2024, 01:35:18 PM

(...)
So what I did is apply this same strategy on Soccer as well. Remember to do this on live matches.
(...)

Has anyone seen any statistics on how often the teams that take the lead first end up winning? Would be interesting to see.

temple

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Quote from: cabron on April 28, 2024, 01:35:18 PM

It worked for some time that I turned my $5 to $40 in 2 days of betting. This is just a test of it as I learn this from someone as well. He didn't teach me the entire strategy but just gave me a hint on how to do it. So maybe if you can improve this sports betting strategy, you may as well contribute to this evolution.

So here are his words: Find a sport like Hockey where teams normally just score a few and usually the first team that scores wins the game. And then find a casino that lists live matches. And then Parlay on 2-3 games. Don't go more than that or it gets riskier he emphasizes.

So what I did is apply this same strategy on Soccer as well. Remember to do this on live matches.
So when you see game 1-0 and the team that score 1 has the odds of 1.30, I guess this is a good bet already. Just add another of these live games for your multibet and hope to win. Also, make sure it's already 2nd half.

Note: Not Guaranteed But Worth Trying.

I don't want to crash the party here, but I doubt that this is a winning strategy. The odds are pretty well chosen by the bookmakers a lot of the time and finding sweet spots isn't easy. I don't know whether your claim is true that the team scoring first is the one most likely winning the game. Whether that is hockey or football, I doubt that there is obvious potential to be found in the odds.

Imagine an underdog takes the lead, which does indeed happen, but I would still feel uncomfortable picking the first scoring team as the winner only because they scored first. And picking odds of around 1.30 doesn't necessarily mean that you should do your research in live markets. The question is if you play a parlay of 1.3 + 1.3 whether you are really better off than just going for a single game with a 1.7?

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Quote from: irhact on April 30, 2024, 02:50:43 PM

Quote from: alastantiger on April 28, 2024, 02:03:20 PM

I was eager to give this a try. I too want to turn my $5 to $40 as well and return to share the news too but I am not getting it. Isn't this the strategy we all do. I recently read of one user that had multibet of up to 30 plus games. And in that thread we argued that while some people were lucky to win, the risk was too high. And most people said that 2 to 3 parlay bet was a better and safer option that guarantees winning that multibet of the magnitude.

I don't really like betting on long shots, I wonder how people win from it because I find it very risky and would always go for 3-5 games, 5 maximum. That's the highest I could go, but then you'll see people playing about 24-30 games and sometimes they make good profit from it. I guess I've not made my mind to take such risk yet therefore I'll just stick to what I know which is staking high on about 3 -5 games.

I've tried the OP's strategy and it worked for me once but the second time I tried it a funny thing happened, maybe I wasn't lucky. Away was winning 2-0, then I staked on it and added 3 more games, guess what? The one playing 2-0 ended with a draw, home team scored at 70mins and equalized the game at 90 plus I felt disappointed but it was so funny and I even laughed over it and since then I've not tried such strategy again.

2 or 3 games should be fine. Doing more than 3 I think you'd be comfortable when their odds are 1.15 and below. But I'd still recommend 2 or 3 games only. I'm still experimenting with this method though. Sometimes I lose but I'm sure I win more.

The DRAW is always a bummer. There are games that I am already assuming I will win but in the end, the other team scores one and the score is tie 1-1. And the house obviously wins when this happens. The beauty of just betting a small amount for like $5 in multibet is that the odds could equate to 1.70.

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Quote from: alastantiger on April 28, 2024, 02:03:20 PM

I was eager to give this a try. I too want to turn my $5 to $40 as well and return to share the news too but I am not getting it. Isn't this the strategy we all do. I recently read of one user that had multibet of up to 30 plus games. And in that thread we argued that while some people were lucky to win, the risk was too high. And most people said that 2 to 3 parlay bet was a better and safer option that guarantees winning that multibet of the magnitude.

I don't really like betting on long shots, I wonder how people win from it because I find it very risky and would always go for 3-5 games, 5 maximum. That's the highest I could go, but then you'll see people playing about 24-30 games and sometimes they make good profit from it. I guess I've not made my mind to take such risk yet therefore I'll just stick to what I know which is staking high on about 3 -5 games.

I've tried the OP's strategy and it worked for me once but the second time I tried it a funny thing happened, maybe I wasn't lucky. Away was winning 2-0, then I staked on it and added 3 more games, guess what? The one playing 2-0 ended with a draw, home team scored at 70mins and equalized the game at 90 plus I felt disappointed but it was so funny and I even laughed over it and since then I've not tried such strategy again.

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Quote from: cabron on April 28, 2024, 01:35:18 PM

So what I did is apply this same strategy on Soccer as well. Remember to do this on live matches.
So when you see game 1-0 and the team that score 1 has the odds of 1.30, I guess this is a good bet already. Just add another of these live games for your multibet and hope to win. Also, make sure it's already 2nd half.

Live matches has little or no much odds if I may say, why not pick up two to three games on before the matches goes live won't it work that way? Let say 1 hrs before the matches goes live at this point there is a very high chance that odd are still in good stands but before one must pick these games let it be that the both team always scores goals where it won't go below over 0.5 (under 0.5) or over 1.5 with multiple bet of 3 games.

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Quote from: cabron on April 28, 2024, 01:35:18 PM

It worked for some time that I turned my $5 to $40 in 2 days of betting. This is just a test of it as I learn this from someone as well. He didn't teach me the entire strategy but just gave me a hint on how to do it. So maybe if you can improve this sports betting strategy, you may as well contribute to this evolution.

So here are his words: Find a sport like Hockey where teams normally just score a few and usually the first team that scores wins the game. And then find a casino that lists live matches. And then Parlay on 2-3 games. Don't go more than that or it gets riskier he emphasizes.

So what I did is apply this same strategy on Soccer as well. Remember to do this on live matches.
So when you see game 1-0 and the team that score 1 has the odds of 1.30, I guess this is a good bet already. Just add another of these live games for your multibet and hope to win. Also, make sure it's already 2nd half.

Note: Not Guaranteed But Worth Trying.

We can decide on using any strategy, but we should never forget that such may not have to work for us, and if it had already worked out perfectly as expected before, it may not be repeatedly, which means, when it comes to our own turn in using same strategy, things may change, however, we are to maintain using others opinion as part of our own experience which may also help us towards having our own strategy to develop, if we don't mind, there are no specific working strategies of sport betting except we are just lucky of being a user of one.

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Quote from: cabron on April 28, 2024, 01:35:18 PM

It worked for some time that I turned my $5 to $40 in 2 days of betting. This is just a test of it as I learn this from someone as well. He didn't teach me the entire strategy but just gave me a hint on how to do it. So maybe if you can improve this sports betting strategy, you may as well contribute to this evolution.

This is 800% profit, a very enticing one if you ask me. I guess it is very aggressive to be able to achieve this result in 2 days. Well, if it works for you keep at it but be careful to manage your risk properly and don't get too over confident before you put more money than you are supposed to. There was a system I was playing before which was over 0.5 goals HT, this worked so well to an extent but the moment I increased the amount I was betting with, things turned for bad thereby forcing me to abandon that system.

Quote from: cabron on April 28, 2024, 01:35:18 PM

So what I did is apply this same strategy on Soccer as well. Remember to do this on live matches.
So when you see game 1-0 and the team that score 1 has the odds of 1.30, I guess this is a good bet already. Just add another of these live games for your multibet and hope to win. Also, make sure it's already 2nd half.

Note: Not Guaranteed But Worth Trying.

Live bet is very risky and I have a hard time coping with it. Betting on 1-0 match is still a risky bet and adding it more games even increases the risk because there is possibility of equalizer. Unless maybe the favorite team is leading in that second half and under such condition, the odd may not be up to 1.30.

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Quote from: Cryptomultiplier on April 28, 2024, 06:17:39 PM

I don't really know about the 2nd half live betting, because even when I have tried to navigate a particular Sportybet site sometime back, it wasn't even up to 5mins before the match started, that the bets were closed. That's why I can't help but wonder how and which Sportsbet site you know or can recommend with such features.

Also, the idea of trying out a game like hockey seems new to me and is worth trying out, since for some of us, just a few bets or gamble on sports and casino games helps relax frayed nerves, instead of going at it like a career.

Haven't been on Sportybet, seen only for Nigerians. Are you not able to sign up on other crypto casinos?
Even in the Stake though, it needs timing when you want to bet on 2nd half, the odds constantly change and sometimes betting on some match will be suspended already before your bet pushes through.

Some of those who tried may also have a good rate with this kind of system. I've talked to someone from American Football, he said this also works on that sport. I guess it all just depends on each of us.

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I don't really know about the 2nd half live betting, because even when I have tried to navigate a particular Sportybet site sometime back, it wasn't even up to 5mins before the match started, that the bets were closed. That's why I can't help but wonder how and which Sportsbet site you know or can recommend with such features.

Also, the idea of trying out a game like hockey seems new to me and is worth trying out, since for some of us, just a few bets or gamble on sports and casino games helps relax frayed nerves, instead of going at it like a career.

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Quote from: cabron on April 28, 2024, 01:35:18 PM

~Snipped

Note: Not Guaranteed But Worth Trying.

A wise man once said that discovery requires experimentation. Before slamming the strategy, I'm going to take some moments to try out the strategy then take note of how it goes. My most recent strategy is backing teams with a Double chance bet especially teams that are high conviction plays. It worked for majority of the time until one time that it didn't (see Liverpool recent games at anfield

). I'm not too familiar with hockey on BcGame but I'd give it a shot and report back to the thread about how it went.

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Quote from: cabron on April 28, 2024, 01:35:18 PM

So what I did is apply this same strategy on Soccer as well. Remember to do this on live matches.
So when you see game 1-0 and the team that score 1 has the odds of 1.30, I guess this is a good bet already. Just add another of these live games for your multibet and hope to win. Also, make sure it's already 2nd half.

Note: Not Guaranteed But Worth Trying.

Even if it's already the second half, that doesn't guarantee winning. While placing bets on such games, never put all hope on winning because those low-performing clubs can still improve and end up winning the game at last. There's one thing someone told me one day: "you can't decide the score of a game until the last whistle is blown." That statement made a little sense to me because even in the last 2 or 3 minutes, a club can still score against the opposite team. It is wise to only stake the amount that one is willing to lose without emotional troubles. I know that there is a wide chance to get lucky with this kind of bet, but let's not forget that gambling can't be predictable all the time.After winning four streaks at a time and you want to go the last time, that might be the time that game may go against you.

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Quote from: cabron on April 28, 2024, 01:35:18 PM

So what I did is apply this same strategy on Soccer as well. Remember to do this on live matches.
So when you see game 1-0 and the team that score 1 has the odds of 1.30, I guess this is a good bet already. Just add another of these live games for your multibet and hope to win. Also, make sure it's already 2nd half.

Booking on live games are one of the most profitable ways to gamble on sports yet, it's no new strategy like you said..or is it?

The casinos still have a bigger advantage on this as the leading team may miraculously be overruled, just about the time you're supposed to claim your winnings; a clear example of that happened when a team was already winning with 2 goals aside - To any gambler, that was enough to paralyse the other team's confidence but, the reverse was the case. The result was a 2-4 victory!
Mind you, you're not wagering on a single game though - you gotta make tons of selections or a few selection with a higher stake.

I've also got a strategy in mind - The handicap option!

Topic: Football/Soccer Winning Strategy - page 3. (Read 535 times)