Topic: Forecasting Altcoin "Daily Price Change" Winners and Losers - page 3. (Read 4279 times)

Another good day.

Winners:   Gain
Digitalcoin   11%
Colossuscoin   6%
BetaCoin   17%
I0Coin   -6%
Globe   12%
AVERAGE   8%
   
Losers:   
BatCoin   -95%
Ixcoin   -15%
BattleCoin   -11%
Mastercoin   6%
Bytecoin   -7%
AVERAGE   -24%


Since we've begun, the winners are up 6% daily on average. The losers are down 4% daily on average. And Bitcoin is down 2% daily on average.


I'm going to take today off. We'll regroup with new model winners and losers Monday AM.

Not well. The losers actually did well relative to the winners yesterday. Although the lot was down, as was Bitcoin.


Winners:   Price at Yesterday Afternoon   Price around Midnight (ET time)   Gain      Price this Morning (ET)   Gain
Billioncoin   0.000200000   0.00018   -10%      0.00015   -25%
Astrocoin   1.130000000   1.2   6%      $1.07    -5%
Velocitycoin   0.001600000   0.0015   -6%      $0.00    -25%
TakeiCoin   0.004100000   0.00098   -76%      $0.00    -85%
Riecoin   0.640000000   0.5   -22%      $0.42    -34%
      Average   -22%      Average   -35%
Losers:                  
Premine   0.320000000   0.25   -22%      $0.26    -19%
FlorineCoin   0.006700000   0.0062   -7%      $0.01    -4%
Catcoin   0.290000000   0.27   -7%      $0.28    -3%
Benjamins   0.024000000   0.023   -4%      0.023   -4%
TopCoin   0.000020000   0.000018   -10%      0.000019   -5%
      Average   -10%      Average   -7%




One interesting factor, though, is I've been comparing the "winners" daily change average for the three days I've been doing this. Right now their  (the winners) daily increase is up 5% on average. I've also done this for the daily "losers" too. Their average is up (surprisingly) by 2% on average. But, not surprisingly, the winners are outpacing the losers on average. The most important stat, in my mind, however, is that bitcoin's daily average change over the same three days is down 5%. So, although there's been some hiccups, this does appear to be working.

I've also been tweaking the model. Today's picks are based on the tweaked model.

Winners:

Digitalcoin
Colossuscoin
BetaCoin
I0Coin
Globe


Losers:

BatCoin
Ixcoin
BattleCoin
Mastercoin
Bytecoin

Thus far, the model appears to work relatively well. Yet, it has glitches. I should also point out the model isn't used to forecast which coins are "best". It's simply based on factors that lead to daily price change.

I will plan to post here and see if my model is working or not.

How'd today go? Billion and Rie was spot on. Takei kind of, but problems with legal made it drop.

Today 3/7's predictions for largest daily price change:


Winners:
Billioncoin
Astrocoin
Velocitycoin
TakeiCoin
Riecoin

Losers:
Premine
FlorineCoin
Catcoin
Benjamins
TopCoin




Honorable Mentions for Winners: Thorcoin and Xivra - both are in top 10, and have negative 24 hour price gains (which to me is a good sign for growth going forward)

So, the 3/6 to 3/7 predictions were not nearly as accurate as the first days predictions. If you recall back, our net percent gain on day 1 (for five winners) was +49%. Today's (for the five winners) was +1%. Not too good. Things looked better at midnight, when it was up 12%. All that said, the losers ended up up 7% (exactly like yesterday). The fact that the losers beat the winners though, means to me - this was a poor forecasting day.

NOTE - I think what's interesting is Bitcoin's performance (flat forecast day 1, down forecast day 2) may affect the underlying model. Just something to note. This might be something that should be tweaked in the model.

Here's the data from Day 2:

Winners:   Price at Yesterday Afternoon                                   Price around Midnight (ET time)   Gain      Price this Morning (ET)   Gain
Tagcoin   $0.560000                                                                              $0.5600000    0%                       $0.5100000   -9%
Takeicoin   $0.003300                                                                              $0.0045000    36%                       $0.0041000   24%
Grain            $0.000035                                                                              $0.0000340    -3%                       $0.0000310   -11%
UnionCoin   $0.088000                                                                               $0.0880000    0%                       $0.0800000   -9%
Ultracoin   $0.200000                                                                               $0.2500000    25%                       $0.2200000   10%
                                                                                                     Average   12%                            Average   1%
Losers:                  
Extremecoin$0.1400000                                                                      $0.1500000    7%                        $0.180000   29%
Astrocoin   $1.2600000                                                                      $1.0800000    -14%                          $1.130000   -10%
Auroracoin   $18.3100000                                                                        $26.1000000    43%                             $20.710000   13%
Frozen   $0.0330000                                                                        $0.0550000    67%                         $0.036000   9%
VelocityCoin   $0.0017000                                                                    $0.0017000    0%                       $0.001600   -6%
                                                                                                            Average   20%                       Average   7%

A lot of the coins on your list have skyrocketed in anticipation of being added to Crypsty tomorrow.  They bought votes, which increased customer confidence and drove price up.

I would obviously doubt you could have foreseen that was going to happen today.  I would take an objective look at the final numbers tonight, and realize that may have played a large factor.

I'm going to keep an eye on this thread.  Could have a lot of potential.

id pay for good predictions

I'm going to try to do it every day unless something comes up. I probably won't do it on weekends, but who knows.

Like I said, I'm using the data on coinmarketcap.com. All the variables are there. I'd love to get more data, but that's all I have access to. Like for example, social media mentions. I think that could be a proxy for demand. But, I don't have that.

Just coinmarketcap. The one site I'm hoping to incorporate is http://coinmarketcap.northpole.ro/ ...which does what coinmarketcap does, but every 5 min.

...but, it's is a json. I'm a statistics geek, not a programmer. Prior to two weeks ago, I didn't even know what a json was. So, although I could obtain that data from the json itself and plop it into excel or my regression software, I can't store it (every five minutes) without manually doing so.  I'm clueless when it comes to that sort of thing.

I'm doing them when I get into work. Unfortunately, this data needs to be pulled each day from coinmarketcap.com. So, that takes a bit, then I have to do a touch of excel work. I'd say I've been doing it around 10AM eastern.


Before I created the formula, I gathered data for a week or so from coinmarketcap. Ideally, there would be a site with daily historical data for all altcoin prices that could be downloaded. That's not the case. It's a pain.

Anyway, once i gathered the historical data. I ran a couple regressions on the historical data over the whole lot of coins. Once I got significance/coefficients, I moved on to forecasting using that model.

I use to do this sort of thing for a living, so this is kinda second nature for me.



Not really. I started doing that with about $5, but decided against it. The tough part of this is you need accounts at all of the exchanges because some coins are traded here, others there, other somewhere else. Moreover, I do not trust his model myself. I certainly don't think anyone here should trust it. I would not advise anyone to use it until we know it works.

So, for now, let's just keep seeing if it works.

What time are you doing these calculations?

When did you create the formula?

Have you been investing your own money, or waiting to see the results for a few days?

No. I wish I could figure out how to post an excel table in here. I used the "Price Yesterday Afternoon" for modeling. Then I checked the price twice (midnight and this morning). The percentages refer to the change from the price yesterday afternoon to each (midnight and morning).

This should explain it:

Price at Yesterday Afternoon         Price around Midnight Yesterday...Gain      Price this Morning (ET)...Gain
        Riecoin   $0.34000                          $0.36126    6%                 0.33                 -3%
   Ultracoin   $0.05300                          $0.09600    81%                 0.19                 258%
   Pesetacoin   $0.06600                          $0.07359    12%                 0.042                -36%
   OlympicCoin   $0.00018                          $0.00023    26%                 0.00023                   28%
   QubitCoin   $0.00079                          $0.00097    23%                 0.00076                  -4%
                                                   Average      30%                             Average   49%
                     
        Unioncoin   $0.06600                         $0.06690    1%                  0.092                  39%
   Megacoin   $0.31000                         $0.31778    3%                  0.31                  0%
   Quark           $0.04600                         $0.04634    1%                  0.046                   0%
   Protoshares   $6.45000                         $7.07735    10%                   6.37                  -1%
   Astrocoin   $1.38000                          $1.40490    2%                   1.33                   -4%
                                                   Average      3%                                   Average    7%

So starting as 1st then ending as 2nd? Just clarifying.

The listed percentages (I believe you were referring to) are price changes. I was looking at the original price when I ran the model and it's change to the price at midnight of that day. The second percentage is the change from the original price when I ran the model to the price the following day (morning).

Wait, what are the percentages?

Gains/loss?
Hi/lo?

No, I don't. I don't think it would be wise to be too exact with this because there's so much room for error. But, I can say that the models say today Ultra and Union coins have the biggest gains.

My bet is that those who get the highest number from the model (ultra and union) will do best for the remainder of today, then overnight, will tank, while the others (grain, takea, tag) will pick up steam. I say this because that's what happened yesterday. The one's with the best model results (Qubit and Pesta) did well until midnight, then tanked. The others (ultra, olympic) were ok during the day, then did well overnight.

This is all speculation, of course.

They are posted (in one of my posts) above. Pretty decent so far.

Maybe I should add that to the original post.

Besides the new picks, what were the findings for yesterday?

Do you have percentages also?