Today (3/6) picks:
Winners:
Tagcoin
Takeicoin
Grain
Unioncoin
Ultracoin
Losers:
Extremecoin
Astrocoin
Auroracoin
Frozen
Velocitycoin
Topic: Forecasting Altcoin "Daily Price Change" Winners and Losers - page 4. (Read 4273 times)
Everything is based on a regression of historical data (over a few weeks) all obtained from coinmarketcap. So, just check out the site. It's a mix of those variables (market cap, price , supply, volume). To me, this market is "possible" to forecast because it's a currency market where supply is known. In econ, we all learn that if demand or supply increase/decrease, there will be a price change. The regression coefficients tells us how much of a change we can expect in the future across all cryptocurrencies.
If we obtained more up-to-date high-frequency data, the regression would be even more robust and I believe the predictions would be better. But, that would lead to a need for super high-frequency trading, which isn't really possible on these exchanges. So, for now, the daily data should work (on net - I still believe this is by no means full proof). For now, it's just a best guess and a writing it down here is just testing the hypothesis... nothing more.
I would not gamble based on these findings until we prove it's working consistently.
If we obtained more up-to-date high-frequency data, the regression would be even more robust and I believe the predictions would be better. But, that would lead to a need for super high-frequency trading, which isn't really possible on these exchanges. So, for now, the daily data should work (on net - I still believe this is by no means full proof). For now, it's just a best guess and a writing it down here is just testing the hypothesis... nothing more.
I would not gamble based on these findings until we prove it's working consistently.
What info did you use to predict the ultra jump if I may ask?
Yeah this is probably what everyone reading the thread is thinking.
What info did you use to predict the ultra jump if I may ask?
OK, so yesterday went pretty well. Below, I will include info on the price change from yesterday afternoon to yesterday around midnight (1st number) and price change from yesterday afternoon to today (2nd number)
PREDICTED WINNERS
Riecoin 6% -3%
Ultracoin 81% 258%
Pesetacoin 12% -36%
OlympicCoin 26% 28%
QubitCoin 23% -4%
AVERAGE 30% 49%
PREDICTED LOSERS
Unioncoin 1% 39%
Megacoin 3% 0%
Quark 1% 0%
Protoshares 10% -1%
Astrocoin 2% -4%
AVERAGE 3% 7%
PREDICTED WINNERS
Riecoin 6% -3%
Ultracoin 81% 258%
Pesetacoin 12% -36%
OlympicCoin 26% 28%
QubitCoin 23% -4%
AVERAGE 30% 49%
PREDICTED LOSERS
Unioncoin 1% 39%
Megacoin 3% 0%
Quark 1% 0%
Protoshares 10% -1%
Astrocoin 2% -4%
AVERAGE 3% 7%
Interesting concept. I enjoy day trading as a hobby so I'll keep an eye on this for sure.
Can you also post what 24 hours schedule aka time zone you are doing because we are in pacific time so that is also relative to where we are as we are all all over the place. 
I like this. Don't edit for the sake of editing. Just keep the results no matter what. I want to see if your model works well.
Cool. That's what I plan to do - no edits. I wasn't so sure I should pick just 5. I have been doing this for every coin on coinmarketcap and then ranking them. I figured I'd just choose the top 5 and bottom 5 for now.
The goal will be to see if these top 5 and bottom 5 really do well/poor.
Leprocoin
I like this. Don't edit for the sake of editing. Just keep the results no matter what. I want to see if your model works well.
Cool. That's what I plan to do - no edits. I wasn't so sure I should pick just 5. I have been doing this for every coin on coinmarketcap and then ranking them. I figured I'd just choose the top 5 and bottom 5 for now.
The goal will be to see if these top 5 and bottom 5 really do well/poor.
I like this. Don't edit for the sake of editing. Just keep the results no matter what. I want to see if your model works well.
Using data from coinmarketcap, I've created a model which can be used to predict which coins to invest in (for a daily price gain).
Thus far, the model appears to work relatively well. Yet, it has glitches. I should also point out the model isn't used to forecast which coins are "best". It's simply based on factors that lead to daily price change.
I will plan to post here and see if my model is working or not.
3/5/14
Today's top 5 will be:
1. Quibit
2. Olympic coin
3. Peseta coin
4. Ultra coin
5. Riecoin
Today's biggest losers will be:
1. Union coin
2. Megacoin
3. Quark
4. Protoshares
5. Astrocoin
Thus far, the model appears to work relatively well. Yet, it has glitches. I should also point out the model isn't used to forecast which coins are "best". It's simply based on factors that lead to daily price change.
I will plan to post here and see if my model is working or not.
3/5/14
Today's top 5 will be:
1. Quibit
2. Olympic coin
3. Peseta coin
4. Ultra coin
5. Riecoin
Today's biggest losers will be:
1. Union coin
2. Megacoin
3. Quark
4. Protoshares
5. Astrocoin
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