Topic: Free Baseball Pick every Day(30-15..66.6%)-DOCUMENTED HERE - page 4. (Read 7793 times)

Today JUNE 3rd I look for the REDSOX to blow up Knuckleballer Dickey. They have hit well gainst him historically. The Line up is deep and knocking the cover of the ball. Last 20 games at home the REDSOX avg 7+ runs per game. The just faced Dickey last week which will give the REDSOX an advantage especially since its that crazy knuckle ball. FREE PICK--REDSOX TEAM TOTAL OVER 5... SKY ROCKETS over the team total of 5


3 wins in a row 25-9 on FREEBIES. I have many SPECIAL MLB PACKAGES. Email [email protected] subject "TOP 3" to for My Premium Packages  ]And as always you can email me with Subject--FREE to get 1 FREE Play every day

FREE PLAY coming up within the hour. Its been a BUSY morning. I will discuss baseball strategy later today. I am taking care of all my baseball clients and sometimes get overwhelmed BUT it is so worth it. [email protected] subject "TOP 3" or "VOLUME" or "BOTH" and I can show you all my specials. I will ALWAYS give you 1 FREEBIE EVERY DAY. Lets get win #20 Today

A Brand new morning. A full slate of baseball to go thru. What a wonderful day even if its Raining outside. Free pick coming up a little alter. A little more strategt talk coming up. Thank you all for checking out my thread and picking up some winners(19-9) including 3 winners in a row

A Nice winner to improve to 19-9... Will have more angles I think about on this thread and I look foward to the Feedback. Thank You everyone on this thread for your contribution. 19-9 67.8% is pretty look lets try to improve on that with FRIDAY FREEEEEEEBIE

In case you missed MLB FREEBIE Today June 2 is REDSOX/ORIOLES OVER 9.5

I have more than my Daily PICK READY. BUT I will always pick 1 FREEBIE here EVERY DAY










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This angle involves finding a slight to average underdog. During your research you find out this dog can hit this pitcher. So, you have 2 bets to make where the chances of going 2-0 far outweigh the chances of going 0-2. You take the underdog +.5 and take the over 3.5 runs thru the 5 innings. There are only 4 ways to go 0-2 and that’s if your team trails after 5 innings, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0. So, when you see this run-line and total, you research, it all comes together for the perfect storm. RESEARCH ALWAYS THE KEY

You can chat with me on twitter @sportshaveballs we can discuss lots of situations if you want. I love other peoples point of view. I also believe winning bet is a good bet losing bet is a bad bet. LONG RUN is what its about. I also THANK you for your comments

Ok let me put it like this. AFTER I do my homework I think it is worth it on situations to risk same amount of money to win more. In those situations I think I have a chance to make more money that way. Especially when I compare -.5 thru 5 innings VS -1.5 with only 8 at bats. The are no absolutes of course. SOMETIMES I like a Team Total over the side also. That fits with redsox games to me. When I had Chris Sale when he was hot and those #s he was putting up VS Pineda(earlier in this thread I had this as Freebie and explained why) I Loved him at -.5. So I took the bullpen out of the equation Got him at -115 and YOUR implied math had that at 56+%. SO my Homework gave me a way better % then that in my opinion. My risk of money was less and thought THAT in THAT PARTICULAR GAME was way better odds then giving -180 where the bullpen could blow it (like they did inKC). There are situations where I can win more money. Baseball for me is SOOOO SITUATIONAL

5 lines is not less juice, stop saying it, I did the math in the last post.

Implied probability I understand for a blind line bettor. See when I find something I like then its above the implied probability. I will take MY read on the game. Also I was also saying I like 5 innings -.5 BETTER than my team -1.5 cuz my team only get 8 at bats

Today I look for MORE EXPLOSIONS so I am taking BOSTON/BALTIMORE OVER 9.5

I get what your saying with all things being equal. I would not risk -200 thru a game BUT I would risk -120 thru 5 BUT it all depends on situation. There are 40 angles per game at least. When you have your Pitcher who wont let 2 runs and you know you will get at least 2 from your team then I like the -120. I get really selective on 5 innings though. After I share my FREE pick of the day I will tell you what I do when it all comes together on 5 inning lines. As I look at my records I can honestly say I dont really bet 5 inning lines much at all. When I did it was cuz opposing pitcher let up 2+ thru 5 every time while my guy thru his starts let up 1 run thru his 40 innings(first five stats). Now i had a huge edge and less juice and no bullpen. But I do combos some 5 innings I will explain little later today

You are still looking at it wrong. -125 is not automatically better than -180.


Full game

Reds: +160, Implied Probability: 38.46%
Rockies: -180, Implied Probability: 64.29%

Juice = 2.75%


First five innings run line:

Reds +.5 +105, implied probability: 48.78%
Rockies -.5 -125, implied probability: 55.56%

Juice =  4.34%

-125 gets you a better PAYOUT than -180, but that's because it's about 10% harder to win that bet. You are not paying less JUICE (the extra they take off) because they charge extra juice on 1/2 game bets because people don't realize this.

Ok I think i see our breakdown in communication cuz at Bookmaker Colo -180 BUT 5 inning line at -.5 its -125.  When I talk about 5 inning lines I am talking about my team favored by half a run. Thats always how I think in terms of 5innings. I also know I did not make that clear here. I am saying the juice can be saved as IF I really like them I will give the half a run. My bad

-200 isn't necessarily more juice than -175, juice is the extra that they take out, not necessarily the fact they pay less on a particular bet.

You need to look at both sides of the bet to figure out what the actual juice is, and they take out more on the 5 innings bets.

People automatically think -175 is "better" than -200 so they charge you extra and you don't even realize it.

Pinnacle has Colorodo -178 for both 5 innings and the whole game, yet the five innings line has 2.49% juice and the full game has 1.91%.

HAPPY FREE PICK DAY WAHOOOOO

That is simply an untrue statement. Getting away from juice meaning the team is a big fave at -200 at 5 innings its lower.. Look at lines Thursday. team totals have smaller Juice at least the ones I go with. I mean some times a team like the red sox -175 to win and ay think they canreally hit the pitcher and pen And team total is something like 5 at -120 Take the sox over instead on the game knowing their pitching isnt the greatest. Bring lines to show me what your talking about and I will do the same Thursday... BUT these games have angles that we can take advantage of. I will give ya my double bet ob 5 inn line + total on 5 inn when it matches right yer golden to go 2-0 BUT not when the over is -150 when its like -115. All lines are not the same I look forward to seeing these lines that have more juice than the Huge fave line to win the whole game. Maybe we are on 2 different type of lines

If you are trying to get away from the juice, you shouldn't be going towards bets that have extra juice like 5 innings and team totals.

This is called prisoner of the Moment... 4 days ago the Whitesox lost a 7-1 9th inning lead in KC.... And its always easy to say afterwards. I am sure KC was at 10 odds