It might be wise to sell all private asset shorts for the time being. Looks like we need one more test of the resistance to the upside before the next move downwards in Sept-Oct. Also it appears the low in private assets won't be until Spring 2016, as we need to allow time for the October kickoff of the contagion in Europe to spread into liquidity crisis and selloff globally with capital rushing into the dollar as the safe haven...
It might even be wise to reestablish some long positions for the time being. There may be a possibility of the Bitcoin price moving above $320 and staying below the next zone of resistance.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35597While gold elected the Monthly Bearish at 1155, we did so well below that level, yet holding the 1084 number both weekly and monthly. Our energy models are turning positive so it does not appear we will get major follow-through at this time. When you elect a Bearish Reversal that far from the number, you typically bounce back to retest it before proceeding further.
We have a Directional Change back to back for August and September and July was a turning point. So, we may see a reaction to the upside to flush out the shorts at this time since we have excessive bearishness building in the press as the WSJ comment that gold is the “pet rock”.
A reaction rally at this point BEFORE new lows will relieve the short positions but this is not likely to last beyond September. Therefore we are more likely than not going to see the final decline stage into the Benchmarks [now].
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35556We must always play it by the numbers and time. Nothing else matters at the end of the day. Clearly, gold is not in such a Waterfall Event no matter how bearish everyone gets. We have moved beyond the 3 year window from 2011 and the Yearly Bearish Reversal at $681 has held. To make that final low in gold, the vast majority have to write off gold entirely and regard it as the WSJ just did – nothing more than a “pet rock”. So as the bearishness builds, this is good for establishing character separating the traders from the fools who just believe propaganda and trade fundamentally. But the hate mails still come in and this warns the tree must still be shaken. When they stop, then the market will be ready to rebound but only on short-covering – not new longs. So expect no sudden news of a huge buyer to save the day. That will NEVER happen. The low is made by massive shorts just as highs are made by fools rushing in an believe the propaganda of the promoters at the top.
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Those targets for the low in gold are in the International Precious Metals Report that warns of the final decline. We are NOT looking for the low in gold to be on October 1 either. If that materialized, it would be extremely profound. However, the more likely event will be the rush to cash completing the final Flight to Quality.
How high gold will rise from a major low depends upon the entire political landscape but more importantly, the technical projections and the Reversals generated from that low. Will we still have a free market for gold? Or will gold move entirely underground, deemed the money of “terrorists” in an attempt to hunt down business conducted off the grid? This we will cover for the future rally in the next Special Report.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35582Government would not necessarily travel door to door to confiscate gold. They would more likely than not employ the same tactic as in the past – just outlaw transactions in gold to avoid taxes which might even include BitCoin. That would be the way they set the stage for confiscating anything that is avoiding taxation which they now call money laundering with up to 20 years in prison. This is now all about them – not you.
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Such schemes against tax-avoidance would not be merely a target against gold alone. It would be against anything taking place in a tax-exempt atmosphere.
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