Topic: Free money available - page 3. (Read 7045 times)

There is. Just go long BTC and wait years. Free money doesn't say anything about the interest rate. (And optionally loan BTC at roughly 30% per annum return denominated in BTC at bitfinex so others can sell your BTC short)

Or the alternative is sell BTC and wait some months.

Also "free money" doesn't speak to the risk involved, e.g. the risk of being long BTC for years (your life priorities and needs change while BTC is < $100 for example) or the risk of borrowing BTC to sell short. Even doing nothing, breathing or driving in a car has risk.

Your timing and risk profile determines your choice amongst those options. For me, the optimum choice was to sell BTC for dollars at $300+. Because I need to expend the dollars over the next months on mathematicians and programmers. And I can't tolerate a drop in the dollar value, because my near-term expenses are in dollars. Also my upside is on R&D and not expending my time watching my short positions. And return of dollars is more crucial to me than riskier capital gains on dollars, because my upside is much greater on R&D with much less risk vs. reward, than on speculate investing. Others have different situations thus a different choice to make.

The interest rates have turned (as of yesterday in shocking development which has been predicted since the 1980s) which implies collapsing global liquidity, thus you don't stand a chance in hell of being correct against me and Armstrong's supercomputer with $1 billion of historical data pattern matched for periodic patterns.

inca I am not retired and when I replace Bitcoin, you can go hide under a rock.

inca, I suggest you view a volatility chart of which the recent pattern low was how in May we called for the rise to $315 (long-term trend line, now headed to $320) as well as the seasonality factor for gold which was pointed out by Armstrong.

and i thought there really is free money here
try to change the title please that would help the others not to fall for the same mistake 

A 40% rise is low volatility?

So your argument seems to have evolved from 'free money' because 'reason' to unless the price breaks resistance from last weeks yearly high and marches higher, then perhaps then because 'reason' the price may crash to 20 dollars?

I think I liked you better when you were just an eloquent bonkers conspiracy theorist retired programmer. Making wild contrarian price predictions is a fool's game, moreover if you drag any unsuspecting innocent into playing along. You still haven't provided proof you are even short.

(Btw, we've had cordial dialogue in the past and I don't want to smite you, but I have reasons for choosing that thread title)

No I rather like the connotation to the way people think about being long BTC.

I am teaching a lesson here about investing rationality versus ideology. (unless I am wrong about the coming price drop)

I want to use this coming shake out as a way to teach people to invest understanding that all markets move in the direction that destroys the most fools. Only very few people earn money from investing. Bitcoin will not be an exception. No investment will ever be exception.

Learn to be early or ride the overbought wave. But never buy a falling knife where fools are relying on CONFIDENCE to hold a balloon inflated at an overbought level. $10 to $300 in 2.5 years. That is still way overbought. The long-term trend line is at $320, but we have to undershoot by the similar extreme that we overshot to overbought $1000+ in 2013, in order to find a rock solid bottom.

Actually I don't think we will hit $20. I am thinking higher double-digits.

Edit: study the silver chart for the many quick reversals from spikes down, and every one ended up being broken by lower lows later. The recent spike down to the $160 level was not a bottom. The reversal was too fast. Bearish market bottoms are long drawn out affairs because they correlate to capitulation and exhaustion of the bulls. Bull market correction bottoms can be V bottoms, but we haven't been in a bull market since the top in 2013.

"Free money available"
Any chance you could change the thread title to something more accurate?

The big dump was all correlated. Since then it is has been record low volatility (thus not relevant) up until the recent rise up to test the long-term trend line at $315 which proved to be resistance again.

It is all over. $20 here we come...

...unless we break decisively over $320 and run up and beyond $400.

Bitcoin was already in a bear market on that date.

A look at the charts from January 2015 tells a different story.

Serious question: why do you think btc is correlated with gold or other commodities? Armstrong may be correct about a macroeconomic cycle but get bitcoin completely wrong.

Oh and I think you should make it clear you are not being highly irresponsible and advising people to leverage short bitcoin.

If you are going to short, you have to allow for getting the timing slightly wrong. And price might move against you for a while. So you have to decide how much upside in the price you are willing to protect with margin and thus how much money you risk losing if it moves over that price. I can't guarantee you the price won't go higher than $315. I was going to put up enough margin to allow for $385 before I would get stopped out and lose the margin.

Also no one can make a 100% guarantee that BTC  is headed lower. Nothing is 100%. There is always some probability we are wrong. I think the probability is low, but it isn't 0%. The safest is to sell BTC for dollars and not short. Shorting is for those who need to risk.

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If you had been reading Martin Armstrong's blog and my posts here, you'd have known for over 2 years that the dollar would becoming stronger because all the QE sent out into the world as carry trade of the ZIRP is going come rushing back to the USA (leaving the rest of the world in a short position in dollars bankrupting the emerging markets) as it will be safe haven as the rest of the world collapses. This would cause the USA to raise interest rates, thus compounding the problem for all nations except the USA. The target date was Oct 2015. Right on time...

I want to short it but I've no idea how much % of my roll I should short to avoid getting margin called and when to begin the shorting position. According to armstrong the gold incoming crash is coming the week of the 10 of august right ? So Maybe we all should the 9th of august before opening our positions ?

@TPTB: when you say "The higher it goes, the less margin you need to short it and not get a margin call due to volatility to the upside, before the implosion. Another gift from perma-bull-tards." is it because right now btc has only 10% upside max (315/288) ?

If I will get some money from somewhere, I will do that  I will not selll until the year 2020

Bull trap vertical reaction bounce. See the flag midway towards $305. Once last gasp before we ...

https://youtu.be/aBkVV9xxCHE?t=24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXCJTW_GtDE
https://youtu.be/td30dKiEQ8g?t=19

Bitcoin I idol her too much:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17lkdqoLt44&index=46&list=RDaBkVV9xxCHE

So far the OP seem to know the opposite of the future.

While none of us know the future, I'm bullish on BTC.  It may not be so good in the short term, but multi month/year I think it will do us proud.  I'm one of those who wants to see a slow and steady increase and no pump.

I really don't like the idea of gambling on margin (I wish that option didn't exist), and for selfish reasons I say that because I already have my investment back and am speculating from a future possibilities position, so emotionally it's easier for me than some.  I am 'hodl' ing though because I believe in it, and won't back down whatever the price, even to zero, and suspect I'm not alone.

Want to make money? Buy and hold bitcoin.

Will make sure to up this one when we're at 400$ a week or so from now 

Wanted to check the movements for myself, quite frightening.



But surprisingly bitcoin shows some green candles when everything else goes down even more. (for the last few weeks)

Go to stockcharts.com and run a 1 year chart on $EURUSD, then $GOLD, then $BRENT. Then go run a 1 year chart of BTC.

You see all dumped at the same time starting in August 2014.  All these assets are correlated at this time.

 

Indeed leverage is risky. Nothing is entirely free. Selling to dollars is much safer.

Nevertheless it is one of the least risky bets (if excluding exchange default or theft risk) I've seen in a long time[1], assuming you post enough margin to not get stopped out. I preferred the short at $315 than $283. But it is still has good risk vs. return. If I had shorted at $315 with $70 margin as I intended, then I could have reduced my margin already to about $50. And continue to reduce it towards $0 as BTC declines, so that can be used as working capital else where. Or enter more shorts on the way down to increase leverage. Of course more risky if increase shorts on the way down.

All BTC that is due to me was sold to dollars, approximately $30,000 worth. I don't need to prove that. Any one who can prove I lied about anything, go report a negative reputation on me.

[1] the reason I say that is because the Euro is preparing to gap down starting roughly in September or October. Or you short the Euro. I didn't run the numbers on that. I had BTC and needed to make a decision on my BTC. I don't have a brokerage account any more.