Topic: Future price of bitcoin - logarithmic chart (Read 29134 times)

Projected by OPs chart.. Did you even read this thread

see  I disagree with this.

Physics and mechanics, biology etc is built upon extracting future performance from pas events and is very good at  it. Thats why that roof is not falling down on your head.

Bitcoin, or rather crypto's is physics/thermodynamics event being related to less entropy creation versus any competing currency due to central bank manipulation and central govt interference, over taxation, negative regualtion. In fact all systems are like this.

The problem is the finance industry to  cover their collective ass have this past is no indication of future along with economists who have massively differing views.

Currency and economies that minimise entropy creation will prevail over time as a consistent and largely predictable rate.

The log graph is good until the market share cap is reached.

Projected by whom?

LOL 

Hahah and we thought that chart was bullish 

Projected January Price: $330

Yes, because a line that is painted by a genius of prediction has more predictive value than a regression line which includes the very first periods of trading.

Interesting chart.  The only thing that makes me wonder is that we are saying we will have only $2300 by the end of next year, but bitcoin so far has been going 10× about every 10 months.  So that would be over $4000 easily.  (Don't get me wrong, I'll take either one, but I was just trying to figure out the difference.)

Go to full screen then hit the "play" button to "load new bars" on the right side middle.

I like the chart also but I don't think we are moving in a giant triangle....that is exaggerated by the 2011 bubble.
The next "bubble" will probably make this chart go crazy.

That's a cool chart. I'd like to see it updated. I checked the price right now (~$420 on 2013-11-14) and we're topping out on that triangle.

I still refer to this chart quite often... has proven to be fairly accurate

https://www.tradingview.com/v/fy8wpDSZ/

And everyone else here is free to tell you how ridiculous painting a random line is.


Using some form of log regression doesn't make sense to you, but drawing a random line does? You're free to have whatever theory you want, but practical theories usually have some way to be translated into math.

erm , nope   we have no uncertainty at hands..(chart)

what i drew in is a potential channel , ie. a diagonal trading range ..  with upper and lower limits , (where price got rejected)
waht is a trading range ? .. balance ... thats it..  (thats how markets move balance>imbalance and so on)

and a diagonal trading range so to speak..a channel ?

well in this case .. its a steady rise in price .. due to an increase in demand or a decrease in supply or both  


ps. if you meant if i would connect the two highs (bubbles) .. then it wouldnt be uncertainty .. but indecision .. ie Higher lows and Lower Highs)

Actually if you want to get technical about it the upper and lower limits should flare out as they extend in order to show uncertainty.
We call this a "trumpet chart" because they flare out like a trumpet.

Basically as we get further into the future the uncertainty increases....the trend line stays straight but the upper and lower predictions open up.
How much they flare out is based on the level of mathematical uncertainty.

Acctually the chart + drawings / channel  , should look more like this ..

And I have told people before (around April run-up), but only 1 guy (out of about 10) actually invested.  Now it is closer to 50%.

Hopefully this is just how it starts.  People begin to come for investment advice in bitcoin, pushing up awareness, market capitalization and VC funding.  Later more come for it's uses after sufficient infrastructure is built and appropriate layered services are created.

People are starting to ask me about investment opportunities (they have spare cash apparently) and they have actually bought bitcoins.  This has never happened before.

Agree completely.  While we may experience a rush of adoption short term, the infrastructure isn't there to support adoption up to Bitcoin's full potential by a long shot.  With the recent rise a few friends have come asking about bitcoin and I've been telling them that bitcoin could be a good investment and is doing interesting things now but that real use by the public at large won't likely come (if it does come) for at least a couple years or more.

Looking forward medium term to hardware wallets and a system that camouflages the full bitcoin key displays from it's simple uses for users.

The most obvious best choice for this will be what innovations Circle.com releases in a few months.  They are betting 9 million that they can create some revolutionary tools for bitcoin.

I, for one, am curious.

Precisely, and that's why "economic singularity" is complete nonsense.

I wasn't really talking about mining.  Mining secures the network (and introduces new coins into the network) the value of Bitcoin is based on what Bitcoin "can do".  Note "price" may vary from value or utility but only so long.  If price gets too far ahead of value/utility it will eventually crash back down.   Rising value and utility is based on increased adoption and those users doing more with Bitcoins.  If you double the number of people using Bitcoin and double the number of non speculative transactions they each make then the value or utility of the network will go up and with it the continued climb of price against the dollar.  

However currently most Bitcoin users are relatively sophisticated when it comes to technology but as Bitcoin "taps out" that market to continue that exponential growth will require taping into markets with a lot less sophistication.

If your grandmother going to learn how to use the QT client, or deal with pywallet to manually remove tx that get stuck due to incorrect fees settings?
Is a Billionaire going to buy $1B in Bitcoins by wiring a billion dollars to companies he has never heard (MtGox) located in countries he may not be comfortable (BTC-e)?
If a a thousand "casual users" puts 1 BTC into an eWallet and the operator runs away with it  will they all continue to use Bitcoin in the future like a "diehard believer" might?
Are millions (and someday tens of millions) of users going to be able to keep Bitcoins secure form hackers despite being HORRIBLY bad at security and running a Windows OS full of malware because they disable security updates that take too long? 

I would guess the answer is no at least not today with the wallets, exchanges, and service providers that exist.  The bitcoin infrastructure is going to have to improve, it is improving but at a much slower pace than adoption and eventually that will be the bottleneck.  Growth will slow until Bitcoin can be made easy, safe, and painless for the "masses".  I don't care to speculate on where or when that will happen only that there is a good chance it will eventually happen.