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Topic: Future price of bitcoin - logarithmic chart - page 4. (Read 29135 times)

legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000
November 11, 2013, 02:12:28 AM
#31
As pointed out before, its cool, but also a load of shite, as past performance is not an indication of future results, especially with something as volatile as Bitcoin.

Technically, past performance is the ONLY indication of future results, for anything ever. You only know that trying to move your finger will actually move your finger because it has worked in the past. You only really know that letting go of your pencil will result in it falling down instead of falling up because of past performance.

Also, "the trend is your friend" is a trading adage for good reason.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but it sure as hell is an indicator. If it weren't, humans would have no way to make sense of the world at all, because nothing would be even remotely predictable; all would be pure chaos. The consistency and regularity of phenomena is the very basis by which one navigates the world and manipulates it to one's benefit.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
November 11, 2013, 12:42:18 AM
#30

Having tried to start our own business with my husband, and investing much more then we have done in Bitcoin then having the business fail, I can already attest that we have eared 100% more with Bitcoin then a business venture did!  The best part of all is seeing the growth of our small investment (during rallys of course) while just hanging around the house watching a movie or even sleeping!  I joke that it is a much easier way to make money then working endless hours on a start-up company.  Grin  Hopefully it all pays off for us in the end, but it takes risk to earn rewards in life.

Absolutely, and I am not at all against starting businesses. I hate the 8-5 life with such a passion that... well, nevermind. My situation at the moment is trying to get my wife through school with no debt - we're almost there. That means, for the moment, I have an extremely low risk appetite. If I were to quit my reliable slave labor income producer, and fail - we'd be up shit creek. Anyway, that will change soon though, I have a few business ideas I'm running the numbers on. I've run a couple semi-successful small part time businesses to try to make ends meet, so have some experience although limited. The way I look at it is, even if I swing and miss with a business, at least the ride will be more interesting and fulfilling than copy and pasting all day, and there is always optimism. The office click-click monkey life is very bleak. Even if it fails, I tried, enjoyed trying - and can try again next time.

Until then (and after!), bitcoin!
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
November 10, 2013, 10:45:45 PM
#29
We tend to overestimate rates of change in the short term, and vastly underestimate them in the long term.

For now the simplified linear regression analysis presented here may be fine for the short term but in the coming months all predictions of fiat/xbt will likely prove to be vastly underestimated.


legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1570
Bitcoin: An Idea Worth Spending
November 10, 2013, 10:34:58 PM
#28
$100,000 per BTC by 2016 seems a bit high.

The thing to remember is in 2013 we have a few millionaires and the Bitcoin Investment Trust investing in the $1M - $20M range.

This is nothing. Bond, stock and gold funds are in the $100B range

If wall street takes BTC seriously at some point, money flowing into BTC will easily be 10,000x to 100,000x higher than we have today.

The question for when/if $100K BTC happens is simply when/if serious money starts to take BTC seriously....

Your post made me think of something. I wonder if that's why some of them fat wallets that have sat idle for awhile started moving coins out.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
November 10, 2013, 10:31:53 PM
#27
Let's hope this graph turns out to be actually a real one years later.  Grin

A $ was in cents in 1950s.

Yeah but the dollar sucks and bitcoin doesn't.  This is why bitcoin has the capability to have a higher market capitalization than dollars.
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1570
Bitcoin: An Idea Worth Spending
November 10, 2013, 10:31:25 PM
#26
As pointed out before, its cool, but also a load of shite, as past performance is not an indication of future results, especially with something as volatile as Bitcoin.

Also this: http://xkcd.com/605/

Heh funny chart but little bit exaggerated couse it is based on only one single discrete data. Bitcoin chart is based on milions of discrete datas.
Topic's chart looks enormously crazy for first look but, if worth of dollar will collapse then it can become true and then we will have some kind of devaluation of bitcoin. Am i right?

So you are saying that a million random data point have more weight than a single random event, when predicting the future?


The post reminds me of when I first read...

legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
November 10, 2013, 10:14:27 PM
#25
$100,000 per BTC by 2016 seems a bit high.

The thing to remember is in 2013 we have a few millionaires and the Bitcoin Investment Trust investing in the $1M - $20M range.

This is nothing. Bond, stock and gold funds are in the $100B range

If wall street takes BTC seriously at some point, money flowing into BTC will easily be 10,000x to 100,000x higher than we have today.

The question for when/if $100K BTC happens is simply when/if serious money starts to take BTC seriously....

 Grin That is my thinking too.  It is tempting to take out a loan just to invest with the thought of this.  But I guess even having a handful of coins at this early in the game (I think anything under $1000 is probably cheap!) is a great thing for us all.  Perhaps we really don't even understand ourselves how big this could become. 
legendary
Activity: 1153
Merit: 1000
November 10, 2013, 10:08:14 PM
#24
$100,000 per BTC by 2016 seems a bit high.

The thing to remember is in 2013 we have a few millionaires and the Bitcoin Investment Trust investing in the $1M - $20M range.

This is nothing. Bond, stock and gold funds are in the $100B range

If wall street takes BTC seriously at some point, money flowing into BTC will easily be 10,000x to 100,000x higher than we have today.

The question for when/if $100K BTC happens is simply when/if serious money starts to take BTC seriously....
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
November 10, 2013, 09:58:04 PM
#23

...more likely then winning the lottery at least!

This.

I frequently use this on people who think I'm crazy for investing, but seem to think lottery tickets are the shit. I probably will not become a millionaire with this, but that said it is the most probable means I have of achieve that goal at this time. Certainly more probable than lottery tickets. More so than a start up business investment (at this moment in my life & current circumstances).

So we shall see, it is indeed more likely than willing the lotto!

Having tried to start our own business with my husband, and investing much more then we have done in Bitcoin then having the business fail, I can already attest that we have eared 100% more with Bitcoin then a business venture did!  The best part of all is seeing the growth of our small investment (during rallys of course) while just hanging around the house watching a movie or even sleeping!  I joke that it is a much easier way to make money then working endless hours on a start-up company.  Grin  Hopefully it all pays off for us in the end, but it takes risk to earn rewards in life.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
November 10, 2013, 09:51:42 PM
#22

...more likely then winning the lottery at least!

This.

I frequently use this on people who think I'm crazy for investing, but seem to think lottery tickets are the shit. I probably will not become a millionaire with this, but that said it is the most probable means I have of achieve that goal at this time. Certainly more probable than lottery tickets. More so than a start up business investment (at this moment in my life & current circumstances).

So we shall see, it is indeed more likely than willing the lotto!
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
November 10, 2013, 06:06:17 PM
#21
$100,000 per BTC by 2016 seems a bit high.

I have a feeling that $300 for the end of 2013 seemed a bit high a year ago too!  Wink  Granted, this still seems impossible but who knows.  With the rate of adoption it is more likely then winning the lottery at least!
member
Activity: 110
Merit: 10
November 10, 2013, 05:24:39 PM
#20
$100,000 per BTC by 2016 seems a bit high.

Indeed, i would expect an amount like that to take at least 5 years, but hey let's op we are wrong Cheesy
member
Activity: 91
Merit: 10
November 10, 2013, 05:20:41 PM
#19
$100,000 per BTC by 2016 seems a bit high.
legendary
Activity: 1961
Merit: 1020
Fill Your Barrel with Bitcoins!
November 10, 2013, 04:21:15 PM
#18
More likely to rise much higher towards the end. Also have to take into account all the bitcoins being mined.
newbie
Activity: 43
Merit: 0
November 10, 2013, 06:43:26 AM
#17
I think that this is not so real.. It'll grow up of course but not so fast! I am new in bitcoin but I have a lot of friends who have known bitcoin for a long time and they have the same opinion as I have.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 255
November 09, 2013, 03:14:29 PM
#16
I'm okay with this.
Yeah seriously. I have nothing to complain about looking at that chart.  I hope it's real but I highly doubt it. When the price per BTC becomes so high no one can afford it, and most people will hord then. It's not a currency at that point but just a commodity. Call it digital gold.

Digital gold is OK with me actually.  Everyone will hoard until it reaches the top of the S curve and levels out.  And then the price will stabilize and everyone will start using it for everything.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1011
In Satoshi I Trust
November 09, 2013, 02:13:47 PM
#15
could be faster in my opinion  Grin

naah, to be honest: it could also be zero in 2014. dont expect to much and hope for the best.
legendary
Activity: 1344
Merit: 1001
November 09, 2013, 08:39:18 AM
#14
Would love to be proved wrong but I find it hard to reach $10k next year. I'm pretty convinced we'll see 1k but 10k is just too much (and yeah I know when we were at 1 it seemed impossible to hit 100).

The chart says $1K next year, and $10K in two years. Right?

Ah, yup. But still…
I understand what you feel, but I would like to understand, why it could not happen? Just why not?
legendary
Activity: 1344
Merit: 1001
November 09, 2013, 08:17:58 AM
#13
As pointed out before, its cool, but also a load of shite, as past performance is not an indication of future results, especially with something as volatile as Bitcoin.

Also this: http://xkcd.com/605/

Heh funny chart but little bit exaggerated couse it is based on only one single discrete data. Bitcoin chart is based on milions of discrete datas.
Topic's chart looks enormously crazy for first look but, if worth of dollar will collapse then it can become true and then we will have some kind of devaluation of bitcoin. Am i right?

So you are saying that a million random data point have more weight than a single random event, when predicting the future?

But they are not random.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 253
November 09, 2013, 01:57:51 AM
#12
Weird. What happened to the $300 now? Is it not included in the chart?
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