Future price of bitcoin - logarithmic chart - page 3.

Zarathustra

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Quote from: notme on November 11, 2013, 12:35:00 PM

Quote from: Xer0 on November 11, 2013, 11:36:10 AM

i doubt any form of finite values can rise exponentially and thus infinite
that means the rich get richer and richer for ever and at some time normal people can not even afford a satoshi
deflationary tough, a currency can not deflate more than the economy behind

i think any sort of logarithmic function would aproximate better

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function

Also @Zarathustra: Please do some reading, your comments don't make much sense to those of us who understand the math that went into the first chart. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Least_squares http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_regression

I guess you math cracks are right, but I also guess that a linear regression over the whole lifespan of Bitcoin doesn't make sense.
With time passing, the line is flattening out.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3469380

LOADING.READY.RUN

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Quote from: Xer0 on November 11, 2013, 11:36:10 AM

i doubt any form of finite values can rise exponentially and thus infinite
that means the rich get richer and richer for ever and at some time normal people can not even afford a satoshi
deflationary tough, a currency can not deflate more than the economy behind

i think any sort of logarithmic function would aproximate better

I think for certain growth phases an exponential function can be the best approximation. However, I'm well aware that this holds only for a limited period of time. At some point growth will be limited by the natural boundaries of the system, and bitcoin will slow down its growth at maybe 1000, 10000 or even 1 million USD. Where that actually will happen, no one knows yet.

pabloangello

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But lets say that one day every avarage people that doesn't feel good with using computers will be able (becouse of some new BTC tech) to have Bitcoin wallet and easily pay/recieve money with BTC like they learned to use plastic credit cards before. Maybe then such a graph is possible. What do you think?

notme

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Quote from: Xer0 on November 11, 2013, 11:36:10 AM

i doubt any form of finite values can rise exponentially and thus infinite
that means the rich get richer and richer for ever and at some time normal people can not even afford a satoshi
deflationary tough, a currency can not deflate more than the economy behind

i think any sort of logarithmic function would aproximate better

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function

Also @Zarathustra: Please do some reading, your comments don't make much sense to those of us who understand the math that went into the first chart. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Least_squares http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_regression

Xer0

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°^°

i doubt any form of finite values can rise exponentially and thus infinite
that means the rich get richer and richer for ever and at some time normal people can not even afford a satoshi
deflationary tough, a currency can not deflate more than the economy behind

i think any sort of logarithmic function would aproximate better

oda.krell

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Quote from: LOADING.READY.RUN on November 11, 2013, 09:56:45 AM

...and some more things to consider: What happens when you introduce a weight function related to the trading volume that actually took place at that time/price? And should the weight be determined from the number of BTC traded or USD traded? Then of course you couldn't use a simple regression method any longer, but you'd have to move on to Chi-square or the likes.

Not saying that you have to do that, just take the results from a simple regression with a grain of salt. An analysis is always based on numerous assumptions. You should just be aware which your assumptions are.

Or, you know, you could still do linear regression, but on daily VWAP, once for $V and once for btcV and see how much they differ. Not different enough to really matter, I'd guess.

LOADING.READY.RUN

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...and some more things to consider: What happens when you introduce a weight function related to the trading volume that actually took place at that time/price? And should the weight be determined from the number of BTC traded or USD traded? Then of course you couldn't use a simple regression method any longer, but you'd have to move on to Chi-square or the likes.

Not saying that you have to do that, just take the results from a simple regression with a grain of salt. An analysis is always based on numerous assumptions. You should just be aware which your assumptions are.

oda.krell

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Quote from: Zarathustra on November 11, 2013, 04:18:01 AM

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on November 11, 2013, 03:16:34 AM

Well if you are choosing point then you are just drawing a line where you want it to be. It is a pretty line. I like that it is blue. The complete lack of antialiasing give is a kinda retro vibe. Not much value beyond that.

No, it's not me who chooses the data points. What, if the computer chooses only monthly (median) or yearly data points?

I'm not a mathematician, I am only a philosopher and always happy to learn something. That's why I asked the Genius. Is it mathematically impossible to paint different lines? Who chooses R squared?

Hehe, don't take DeathAndTaxes' snark too serious. 't was a funny one I have to say.

Anyway, I think I see your point/question: you basically wonder about the (arbitrarily) chosen time resolution. I.e. what result would the regression deliver if, instead of, say, hourly data, we daily, or instead of daily, weekly.

The answer is: a) the result might look slightly different, but not much. b) the finer grained your time resolution, the more accurate and possibly: predictive your analysis will be, because you have more data points.

In short: if you get a vastly different result, for example by using 'monthly closing price on btc-e' or some shit like that, you're cheating :D

Enky1974

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try again starting from november 2011 low at 2$, leaving out the first bubble of 2011 and compare results

CMMPro

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I not sure you understand what R^2 means.

We don't "choose" R^2, linear regression is used to find a formula (for the simple slope in this case) that describes the line as close to "1.0" as possible....a value of 1.0 is a perfect correlation between the line and the data. 1.0 is impossible unless all data points are on that slope. Since this isn't a straight line 1.0 isn't possible....so you calculate the best fit, the highest R^2 value we can find.

I also understand the philosophers argument that you are stating....since the bitcoin market never closes...how can anyone determine the closing bell price in order to chart it?

Even without a closing bell we still have the ability to chart all trades....I don't think that is what is happening in this chart, but it could be done to make a more accurate linear regression determination.

In this chart I think he/she is using the daily indicator which is likely just the end of the day at midnight gmt.

Edit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination

Zarathustra

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Quote from: XxionxX on November 11, 2013, 04:45:52 AM

What, I don't even... Do you even math? How does that correlate to anything at all?

I guess, it correlates to a different R squared.

Quote

At least the OP's chart had an idea of where it wanted to go, your chart makes my frontal lobe hurt trying to understand what possessed you to put that line there.

I am seriously not trying to mock you or anything. I just don't follow what your point is.

I guess you are tying to say that bitcoin will fail?

No, I don't. I think, it will work until civilization will fail again.

Quote

Care to make a bet on it? Lets say that you owe me 1btc in 2020 if bitcoin is successful and I will owe you $420usd which is the ATH of bitcoin of today. Seems fair right? tollface.jpg

I'm not stupid. I made a similar bet this year and I won.

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I mean bitcoin will fail so you would be making out like a bandit Grin

~~Your chart says that we will never break the ATH again!~~

You are wrong. It doesn't.

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Upon coser examination it looks like your chart is still bullish, just a lot lower Tongue

Yes, and therefore it implicates that ATH will be broken later.

Quote

But seriously, what is up with this chart you made? I want to understand your position.

My position is, that the blue line depends on the R squared that we choose.

XxionxX

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Digital money you say?

Quote from: Zarathustra on November 11, 2013, 04:18:01 AM

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on November 11, 2013, 03:16:34 AM

Well if you are choosing point then you are just drawing a line where you want it to be. It is a pretty line. I like that it is blue. The complete lack of antialiasing give is a kinda retro vibe. Not much value beyond that.

No, it's not me who chooses the data points. What, if the computer chooses only monthly (median) or yearly data points?

I'm not a mathematician, I am only a philosopher and always happy to learn something. That's why I asked the Genius. Is it mathematically impossible to paint different lines? Who chooses R squared?

If you wanted to get a really good guess with all of the datapoints, you could take every possible set of datapoints from 2 points to all of them, and make an average out of all the different lines you made. If I had to guess, I bet it would be similar to the OP's line. But I am also not a mathematician, I haven't passed Calculus yet Tongue

That would be a cool chart though.

I do agree that the chart could use a few more lines though. A 'neutral' line, a bullish line, and a bearish line.

XxionxX

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Digital money you say?

Quote from: Zarathustra on November 11, 2013, 02:49:23 AM

Why accurate?

And this one isn't?

What, I don't even... Do you even math? How does that correlate to anything at all? At least the OP's chart had an idea of where it wanted to go, your chart makes my frontal lobe hurt trying to understand what possessed you to put that line there.

I am seriously not trying to mock you or anything. I just don't follow what your point is.

I guess you are tying to say that bitcoin will fail? Care to make a bet on it? Lets say that you owe me 1btc in 2020 if bitcoin is successful and I will owe you $420usd which is the ATH of bitcoin of today. Seems fair right? tollface.jpg

I mean bitcoin will fail so you would be making out like a bandit Grin

~~Your chart says that we will never break the ATH again!~~ Upon coser examination it looks like your chart is still bullish, just a lot lower Tongue

But seriously, what is up with this chart you made? I want to understand your position.

Zarathustra

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on November 11, 2013, 03:16:34 AM

Well if you are choosing point then you are just drawing a line where you want it to be. It is a pretty line. I like that it is blue. The complete lack of antialiasing give is a kinda retro vibe. Not much value beyond that.

No, it's not me who chooses the data points. What, if the computer chooses only monthly (median) or yearly data points?

I'm not a mathematician, I am only a philosopher and always happy to learn something. That's why I asked the Genius. Is it mathematically impossible to paint different lines? Who chooses R squared?

greaterninja

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Quote from: pabloangello on November 08, 2013, 04:39:34 PM

Hello,

I've just seen link for interesting chart on btc-e chat.

One user posted this:

Looks crazy couse this is logarithmic scale. Hard to believe that this prediction will happen but..

What do you think about this?

Ok, one of the very first things about statistics is that extrapolation based on data becomes more innacurate the further you go out.

100k/btc by 2016 does not seem real. The rate of growth per time is decreasing as time goes by. Bitcoin is much more likely to slow down in percentage / proportional growth.
With that said I believe it will hit $1,000 to $30,000 in 5 years. $10,000 to $30,000 is highly probable in 5 years per bitcoin.

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Well if you are choosing point then you are just drawing a line where you want it to be. It is a pretty line. I like that it is blue. The complete lack of antialiasing give is a kinda retro vibe. Not much value beyond that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_regression

Zarathustra

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on November 11, 2013, 02:54:55 AM

What is the r squared for your regression or did you simply draw a line on a chart?

The OP isn't saying Bitcoin will do "this" simply showing that there the line drawn has a high correlation to the known historical price points.

In other words the chart of actual price points can be simplified/reduced to the line drawn. If the trend continues (and it may not) it will generally follow the line drawn. In other words MATH ROCKS.

Can't price points be reduced to the line of my chart as well, if you simply choose fewer price points?

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

What is the r squared for your regression or did you simply draw a line on a chart?

The OP isn't saying Bitcoin will do "this" simply showing that there the line drawn has a high correlation to the known historical price points. In other words the chart of actual price points can be simplified/reduced to the line drawn. If the trend continues (and it may not) it will generally follow the line drawn. In other words MATH ROCKS.

Zarathustra

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Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on November 11, 2013, 02:25:30 AM

Quote

Looks pretty accurate to me. It all comes back to the binary bet: either Bitcoin more or less follows this chart, or it goes to zero.

The investment proposition is simple. Determine what you think the odds of those two outcomes are, decide how confident you are in those odds, and place your bets accordingly (based on your own life situation in the context of those two outcomes and their probabilities, as well as your risk tolerance).

Why accurate?

And this one isn't?

Zangelbert Bingledack

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Quote

Looks pretty accurate to me. It all comes back to the binary bet: either Bitcoin more or less follows this chart, or it goes to zero.

The investment proposition is simple. Determine what you think the odds of those two outcomes are, decide how confident you are in those odds, and place your bets accordingly (based on your own life situation in the context of those two outcomes and their probabilities, as well as your risk tolerance).

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