Gambling can be profitable in the long run! It is possible! - page 50.

michinzx

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on November 17, 2015, 07:55:52 PM

Quote from: XinXan on November 17, 2015, 07:09:50 PM

Quote from: unholycactus on November 17, 2015, 06:52:23 PM

I doubt OP understands correctly what "the long run" means.
Nobody is luck or unlucky in the long run and the house always wins unless they have an incredibly poor bankroll management.

Well OP is right, mathematically it can happen, maybe you dont know what you are talking about. It's definitely unlikely to happen but it can. The house always wins but that doesn't mean someone can't profit in the long term.

Not even the house always wins.

If there were 1 billion casinos, i guarantee you that some of them would go bankrupt, even if they would manage their bankroll conservatively.

Why? Because the odds dictate so, and many jackpots in a row can bankrupt anybody.

not really, in a real life casino, there's plenty of staff to kick anyone out who wins too much. and i dont mean "wins too much" as in a few hundred thousand, but those people that come in with never before seen luck and actually endanger the casino's profits. big winners are great for the casino's advertising too.
this can include anyone who's suspicious of cheating as well of course.

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Quote from: unholycactus on November 17, 2015, 06:52:23 PM

I doubt OP understands correctly what "the long run" means.
Nobody is luck or unlucky in the long run and the house always wins unless they have an incredibly poor bankroll management.

Nope, although there is house edge some people will still manage to win some of their coin there. I dont think that house edge is really affect normal run or manual click. It only affect long run but still many people can manage to win it with varieties of strategy

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Quote from: XinXan on November 17, 2015, 07:09:50 PM

Quote from: unholycactus on November 17, 2015, 06:52:23 PM

I doubt OP understands correctly what "the long run" means.
Nobody is luck or unlucky in the long run and the house always wins unless they have an incredibly poor bankroll management.

Well OP is right, mathematically it can happen, maybe you dont know what you are talking about. It's definitely unlikely to happen but it can. The house always wins but that doesn't mean someone can't profit in the long term.

"It can happen" and "profitable in the long term" do not mean the same thing, and neither does "can profit in the long term." you can make a profit, making -ev bets is not profitable in the long term.

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: XinXan on November 17, 2015, 07:09:50 PM

Quote from: unholycactus on November 17, 2015, 06:52:23 PM

I doubt OP understands correctly what "the long run" means.
Nobody is luck or unlucky in the long run and the house always wins unless they have an incredibly poor bankroll management.

Well OP is right, mathematically it can happen, maybe you dont know what you are talking about. It's definitely unlikely to happen but it can. The house always wins but that doesn't mean someone can't profit in the long term.

Not even the house always wins.

If there were 1 billion casinos, i guarantee you that some of them would go bankrupt, even if they would manage their bankroll conservatively.

Why? Because the odds dictate so, and many jackpots in a row can bankrupt anybody.

XinXan

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Quote from: unholycactus on November 17, 2015, 06:52:23 PM

I doubt OP understands correctly what "the long run" means.
Nobody is luck or unlucky in the long run and the house always wins unless they have an incredibly poor bankroll management.

Well OP is right, mathematically it can happen, maybe you dont know what you are talking about. It's definitely unlikely to happen but it can. The house always wins but that doesn't mean someone can't profit in the long term.

unholycactus

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I doubt OP understands correctly what "the long run" means.
Nobody is luck or unlucky in the long run and the house always wins unless they have an incredibly poor bankroll management.

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: michinzx on November 17, 2015, 06:45:56 PM

Quote from: MRKLYE on November 16, 2015, 07:06:04 PM

The only way gambling is profitable in the long run is to set up your own casino and house edge the degenerates.
Gambling itself is a huge money sink.. and likely a good 33% of all BTC is gambled I'd bet.. Its sort of crazy.

BTC: For Drugs, Gambling and shady prostitution things!

id bet that 99% of people on this board probably dont want to hear that, even though its 99% right (1% in the case every player has some insane luck and ends up sucking the casino dry, which is rather unlikely to happen). in most cases, i would expect a bitcoin casino's profits to be higher than what the house edge would lead people to expect because of the way people gamble.

Well if there is demand for gambling, so what?

It gives a new purpose and usefullnes to bitcoin. Gambling is a good entertainment, and if bitcoin can make it more enriched, then so be it.

michinzx

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Quote from: MRKLYE on November 16, 2015, 07:06:04 PM

The only way gambling is profitable in the long run is to set up your own casino and house edge the degenerates.
Gambling itself is a huge money sink.. and likely a good 33% of all BTC is gambled I'd bet.. Its sort of crazy.

BTC: For Drugs, Gambling and shady prostitution things!

id bet that 99% of people on this board probably dont want to hear that, even though its 99% right (1% in the case every player has some insane luck and ends up sucking the casino dry, which is rather unlikely to happen). in most cases, i would expect a bitcoin casino's profits to be higher than what the house edge would lead people to expect because of the way people gamble.

Patatas

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on November 17, 2015, 06:33:02 PM

Quote from: Patatas on November 17, 2015, 04:44:31 PM

In your case ,the concept of Mutually exclusive and independent events seems more accurate as we have multiple variables and different outcomes .Lets start by considering definition of Mutually exclusive events

Two events are said to be independent if the result of the second event is not affected by the result of the first event.

If A and B are independent events, the probability of both events occurring is the product of the probabilities of the individual events
Hence,If A and B are independent events,
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B)
This does satisfy your mathematical notion of Winning in Gambling in long run is possible but disagree with the fact as luck is to be considered as a positive entity in the process.

I dont know, because we dont know how luck works or what luck is.

It arises out of the quantum level but we cannot know how it arises or what is the nature of it. It all comes down to determinism vs free will.

And that will remain a mistery.

Haha this makes a lot of sense.Probably in near future we can study the luck patterns of a particular player playing a casino for 24 hours and examining his luck appearance between regular/discrete intervals .Analyzing the pattern we can develop an algorithm which calculates luck for every user and predicts when is next luck event will occur.

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Quote from: TheGeorge on November 17, 2015, 06:13:49 PM

Quote from: mamahdedeh on November 17, 2015, 04:30:11 AM

I think gambling will not provide full-time jobs. The only job leisure.

Gambling will not provide full time jobs for most people. Most of us are not professional gamblers, we do not have the skill to win against the casinos and other professionals. We just gamble for fun. We know we will lose in the long term. The hope of winning keeps us playing.

How can one develop a skill to win against the casinos? You either have to hack them or inject your code to overtake the random functions used to code the casinos which again makes you a skilled programmer.And a skilled programmer doesn't need to gamble to make money.Fact is, people with less scope of earning money through legit ways choose gambling.People with skills make money easily by hard work and dedication.I'am totally against such criticism for gambling,its all based on an individual's point of view.

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: Patatas on November 17, 2015, 04:44:31 PM

In your case ,the concept of Mutually exclusive and independent events seems more accurate as we have multiple variables and different outcomes .Lets start by considering definition of Mutually exclusive events

Two events are said to be independent if the result of the second event is not affected by the result of the first event.

If A and B are independent events, the probability of both events occurring is the product of the probabilities of the individual events
Hence,If A and B are independent events,
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B)
This does satisfy your mathematical notion of Winning in Gambling in long run is possible but disagree with the fact as luck is to be considered as a positive entity in the process.

I dont know, because we dont know how luck works or what luck is.

It arises out of the quantum level but we cannot know how it arises or what is the nature of it. It all comes down to determinism vs free will.

And that will remain a mistery.

TheGeorge

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Quote from: mamahdedeh on November 17, 2015, 04:30:11 AM

I think gambling will not provide full-time jobs. The only job leisure.

Gambling will not provide full time jobs for most people. Most of us are not professional gamblers, we do not have the skill to win against the casinos and other professionals. We just gamble for fun. We know we will lose in the long term. The hope of winning keeps us playing.

Patatas

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on November 17, 2015, 02:52:54 PM

Quote from: Patatas on November 17, 2015, 01:44:26 PM

Assuming if you've a valid point and your theories are very accurate why would you say "it all depends on luck".If it all depends on luck it dissolves the entire point of your mathematical notations.However you can't live a life with double standards as Einstein says "Live life like everything is a miracle or nothing is a miracle".You just did that by saying its based on mathematical expression in one of your posts and not supporting it by saying "it all depends on luck".

That is not how probability works. Probability follows a pattern, and luck is only the outcome of 1 variable, or a random pattern in the distribution that is unique to your situation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

In your case ,the concept of Mutually exclusive and independent events seems more accurate as we have multiple variables and different outcomes .Lets start by considering definition of Mutually exclusive events

Two events are said to be independent if the result of the second event is not affected by the result of the first event.

If A and B are independent events, the probability of both events occurring is the product of the probabilities of the individual events
Hence,If A and B are independent events,
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B)
This does satisfy your mathematical notion of Winning in Gambling in long run is possible but disagree with the fact as luck is to be considered as a positive entity in the process.

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: Patatas on November 17, 2015, 01:44:26 PM

Assuming if you've a valid point and your theories are very accurate why would you say "it all depends on luck".If it all depends on luck it dissolves the entire point of your mathematical notations.However you can't live a life with double standards as Einstein says "Live life like everything is a miracle or nothing is a miracle".You just did that by saying its based on mathematical expression in one of your posts and not supporting it by saying "it all depends on luck".

That is not how probability works. Probability follows a pattern, and luck is only the outcome of 1 variable, or a random pattern in the distribution that is unique to your situation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Patatas

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on November 17, 2015, 10:57:45 AM

Quote from: mamahdedeh on November 17, 2015, 04:30:11 AM

I think gambling will not provide full-time jobs. The only job leisure.

Who said here anything about full time jobs?

I was only saying that you can be profitable if you are lucky. It all depends on luck.

You can win big once, or you win small for longer, but the same goes for losing too.

This is what differentiates losers from winners:

Assuming if you've a valid point and your theories are very accurate why would you say "it all depends on luck".If it all depends on luck it dissolves the entire point of your mathematical notations.However you can't live a life with double standards as Einstein says "Live life like everything is a miracle or nothing is a miracle".You just did that by saying its based on mathematical expression in one of your posts and not supporting it by saying "it all depends on luck".

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: maku on November 17, 2015, 11:18:40 AM

I've been wondering for a long time about long term gambling profit myself. Recently I came across very interesting research done by Wall Street Journal.
The Wall Street Journal summarizes the results of two years worth of data from thousands of online gamblers playing virtual casino games and here is the result:

"On any given day, the chances of emerging a winner aren't too bad - the gamblers won money on 30% of the days they wagered.
But continuing to gamble is a bad bet. Just 11% of players ended up in the black over the full [two year] period, and most of those pocketed less than $150."

These numbers apply whether you're playing blackjack and roulette online, or in person at a casino. A change of location will not improve the statistics for you.

In other words, you'd be far better off financially picking up a single penny off the sidewalk, and then doing nothing else for two years, than you would be by gambling continuously for two years, even if you consider yourself the embodiment of luck itself.

But the house edge does matter. You can improve your odds by playing a smaller house edge game.

In bitcoin, to my knowledge, the dice sites are your best bet to achieve that.

srgkrgkj

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well if you have the right tips from a expert tipster you can easily triple ur money with events such as football where upsets don't happen 70% of the times from what ive experienced

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Quote from: poplolnman on November 17, 2015, 04:02:46 AM

Quote from: Wendigo on November 16, 2015, 05:55:18 PM

Saw this on NitrogenSports today. You gotta believe in the heart of the cards Cool

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/c21127fVmppd0NNVFMxUXpLNWptL2hyS3BJUT09/r/325705/

Okay almost 1200 odds with 14 match and won 11 btc wow!wow! What a lucky guys? Wow he did it all in tennis matches.
But If he didn't stop gamble i beleive his 11 btc will turn to -11 btc. Why? Always hard against long run. unless he know when to stop or only bet on small amount.

Yeah I can't say this is luck or he is pro at tennis betting but to get that 11btc in just one parlay is a great achievement. I dont think he will lose his coin like that. He can still play low bet or save some before he continue on betting it so if he lose he will still earn some of his profit

XinXan

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on November 16, 2015, 06:30:38 PM

Quote from: XinXan on November 16, 2015, 06:05:55 PM

Flat betting would be just as hard as using any system, it actually seems that flat betting it's way harder because you only win the same amount of money in each of your bets, you would have better chances using a risky method because when you get lucky you win a lot, of course you have to be extremely lucky.

Actually from a risk standpoint, flat betting is the most efficient strategy.

Sure you can use martingale or all-in if you want the big buck , but in terms of survival rate, flat betting is the only option.

It seems pretty hard to win more than the house edge constantly with flat betting even if you are lucky. If i were to make a system to survive long term would be, bet on a really low % and get lucky, win a big amount and start betting flat after that, it's silly but it might work just to survive.

maku

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I've been wondering for a long time about long term gambling profit myself. Recently I came across very interesting research done by Wall Street Journal.
The Wall Street Journal summarizes the results of two years worth of data from thousands of online gamblers playing virtual casino games and here is the result:

"On any given day, the chances of emerging a winner aren't too bad - the gamblers won money on 30% of the days they wagered.
But continuing to gamble is a bad bet. Just 11% of players ended up in the black over the full [two year] period, and most of those pocketed less than $150."

These numbers apply whether you're playing blackjack and roulette online, or in person at a casino. A change of location will not improve the statistics for you.

In other words, you'd be far better off financially picking up a single penny off the sidewalk, and then doing nothing else for two years, than you would be by gambling continuously for two years, even if you consider yourself the embodiment of luck itself.

Source Article for reference: http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304626104579123383535635644

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