Gambling can be profitable in the long run! It is possible! - page 52.

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: Monnt on November 15, 2015, 07:33:57 PM

"Gambling can be profitable in the long run! It is possible!"

"Gambling is not profitable 90% of the time! It is possible!"

Yes, of course it is profitable. But most of the time it is NOT.

I dont know the % of that happening. It needs to be calculated, us speculating here is just nonsense.

If we had the parameters we could calculate that area of probability.

romjpn

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Quote from: michinzx on November 16, 2015, 01:21:17 AM

Quote from: Erza on November 15, 2015, 10:48:27 PM

Quote from: Monnt on November 15, 2015, 07:33:57 PM

"Gambling can be profitable in the long run! It is possible!"

"Gambling is not profitable 90% of the time! It is possible!"

Yes, of course it is profitable. But most of the time it is NOT.

It is depends on how are you played on each gambling site. Play slowly and dont be greedy that is how people can manage to profitable in long run but until you achieve that goal you must stop it no matter what or you will be on losing again. That is why you need self control there

self control is knowing when to pull out when youre ahead, if youre gambling. with games of chance, anything is possible, really, its just that with the way people play, never satisfied with winning whatever they have up till that point, people usually end up losing more than what they walked in with.

The best way is to set up a target (quite low) and never change the strategy (considering the mathematic possibilities). Never go YOLO, even on high odds.
Did it in Macau, walked out with ~150$. Playing pretty basic martingale.

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Quote from: Erza on November 15, 2015, 10:48:27 PM

Quote from: Monnt on November 15, 2015, 07:33:57 PM

"Gambling can be profitable in the long run! It is possible!"

"Gambling is not profitable 90% of the time! It is possible!"

Yes, of course it is profitable. But most of the time it is NOT.

It is depends on how are you played on each gambling site. Play slowly and dont be greedy that is how people can manage to profitable in long run but until you achieve that goal you must stop it no matter what or you will be on losing again. That is why you need self control there

self control is knowing when to pull out when youre ahead, if youre gambling. with games of chance, anything is possible, really, its just that with the way people play, never satisfied with winning whatever they have up till that point, people usually end up losing more than what they walked in with.

Erza

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Quote from: Monnt on November 15, 2015, 07:33:57 PM

"Gambling can be profitable in the long run! It is possible!"

"Gambling is not profitable 90% of the time! It is possible!"

Yes, of course it is profitable. But most of the time it is NOT.

It is depends on how are you played on each gambling site. Play slowly and dont be greedy that is how people can manage to profitable in long run but until you achieve that goal you must stop it no matter what or you will be on losing again. That is why you need self control there

Monnt

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"Gambling can be profitable in the long run! It is possible!"

"Gambling is not profitable 90% of the time! It is possible!"

Yes, of course it is profitable. But most of the time it is NOT.

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Betting Championship betking.io/sports-leaderboard

I believe that winning in long term is possible in gambling when there are skill games involved, like poker and sports betting.
There are many well known professionals in those areas. I thought you were going that way, but I think you "messed it up" with it "all depends on luck".

Luck changes and can't make people win in the long turn, there is variance and you can win or lose, but depending on your odds you will enter in a loss when there is a house edge. You can only win in long turn if you pick profitable odds for your type of gambling, but there is when the skill enters, because no one will offer you that for free. You must be better than your opponent and profit from their mistake, and that is no luck, is skill.

Luck matters, but is the skill that will make you win in the long turn, not luck.

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Quote from: XinXan on November 15, 2015, 12:56:13 PM

How do you know how much more probable your scenario is? Your calculations are not exactly right, first of all what are the gamblers using, martingale? What happens when they lose all their money? Do you know how hard it is just to recover that money? Your scenario it's not that probable and I have never seen anyone profiting from roulette or dice without cheating. As I said, give us 1 real example of someone doing it and I will believe you.

I dont know, but it can be calculated with a simple Z test if you know the parameters. I dont have time to do it.

With martingale its virtually impossilble since martingale doesnt add any expectancy bonus to you, it only adds exponential risk.

I mostly described my scenario with flat betting only. No systems, no strategies. Just betting on 1 scenario with constant bet size.

Example? Why? Thats like saying I dont believe in gravity because I havent jumped out from the 4th floor yet. We know my scenario is possible, you dont need real world examples to prove it.

Plus I dont have records of every single bet that has ever taken place to prove it to you.

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on November 14, 2015, 08:43:52 AM

Quote from: SyGambler on November 14, 2015, 08:40:17 AM

it's impossible , when we talk about long term we aren't talking about one year where are talking about mathematical concepts
the house will keep making money and the players at the end will run out of funds , it's impossible to beat -EV games unless there is a +EV bounty or Jackpot
even Einstein said about roulette that No One Can Win at Roulette Unless He Steals Money from the Table While the Croupier Isn’t Looking

Yes we are talking about 5-10 years because nobody gambles infinitely many times.

It is possible to beat negative expectancy if you have a favorable probability distribution.

If you bet on Red chip in roulette and the distribution is this:

R ,R ,R ,B ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,B ...

You just ended up a net winner.

That is nowhere near the long term.

It is certainly possible to win money by making -ev bets. That does not mean it is profitable long term.

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on November 15, 2015, 12:15:23 PM

Quote from: XinXan on November 15, 2015, 12:02:21 PM

Mathematically, of course, it's possible. But if we use that logic, pretty much anything that seems impossible can be possible. Someone could win the lottery 100 times in a row, yes mathematically it's possible but let's be honest, it wont happen. If you are so sure that it's possible, give us an example of a gambler that played roulette (or any other gambling game with house edge) that has won in the long term (5-10 years)

Of course it depends on your luck.

However winning a lottery 100 times in a row is highly unlikely, my scenario is much more probable, to the point that I believe it actually happened already or it can happen already anytime.

There could be a group of gamblers that have fortune on their side, and win for 1 year straight. Its not that improbable.

How do you know how much more probable your scenario is? Your calculations are not exactly right, first of all what are the gamblers using, martingale? What happens when they lose all their money? Do you know how hard it is just to recover that money? Your scenario it's not that probable and I have never seen anyone profiting from roulette or dice without cheating. As I said, give us 1 real example of someone doing it and I will believe you.

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Quote from: XinXan on November 15, 2015, 12:02:21 PM

Mathematically, of course, it's possible. But if we use that logic, pretty much anything that seems impossible can be possible. Someone could win the lottery 100 times in a row, yes mathematically it's possible but let's be honest, it wont happen. If you are so sure that it's possible, give us an example of a gambler that played roulette (or any other gambling game with house edge) that has won in the long term (5-10 years)

Of course it depends on your luck.

However winning a lottery 100 times in a row is highly unlikely, my scenario is much more probable, to the point that I believe it actually happened already or it can happen already anytime.

There could be a group of gamblers that have fortune on their side, and win for 1 year straight. Its not that improbable.

XinXan

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Mathematically, of course, it's possible. But if we use that logic, pretty much anything that seems impossible can be possible. Someone could win the lottery 100 times in a row, yes mathematically it's possible but let's be honest, it wont happen. If you are so sure that it's possible, give us an example of a gambler that played roulette (or any other gambling game with house edge) that has won in the long term (5-10 years)

Sourgummies

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Never ending parties are what Im into.

Your argument is based on the variance with gamblers, and that you can profit off gambling. Plus, all that's stated is that you need to be lucky to be profiting from gambling. Roll Eyes

This is true, and we know that. However, it is, (as said time and time again) unlikely for you to do so.

Especially with your 1-year period, you have to understand human psychology and how they act with gambling. Addicts typically do not stop at a certain point.
Maybe instead of 400 gamblers winning consistently, it's down to 20?
Sure, it can be profitable in a year... but the in the "long run" it leads to the house taking everything.

anonymousx

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No gambling for me, tried it for fun and left ^^ best of luck to you with that!

cluit

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I need to agree with OP as I too believe that gambling would be profitable in long-term if we are concentrating learning skills along with our gambling. Only gambling for long time would not make any changes in our gambling results. We need to concentrate on developing our skills side-by-side.

katerniko1

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well this is a nice thread with everything explained Cheesy

but i still dont think that some sites can go bankrupt (some like pd)
regards.
-Katerniko1

Junko

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Yes, with proper bankroll management, knowledge of the game you are playing, including the optimum winning strategy for the game you are playing, as well as being emotionally disciplined, you can increase your chances of making a long term profit in gambling.

Quote from: FrostStick on November 14, 2015, 05:50:36 PM

It is possible that your winning streak will continue infinitely but the chances are very, very, very slim.

It isn't necessary to have an infinite winning streak to be profitable in gambling. Profitable long term gamblers experience downswings all the time. They have periods where they experience multiple extended losing streaks. Yet they are still profit in the long run. Why? Mostly because of, wait for it... proper bankroll management. This is what allows them to survive the bad times of not winning and allows them to have the funds available to be able to take advantage when their luck is in their favor.

Pab

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Gambling i dont think so,Poker,Black Jack isa kind ofsport,it is like cheese,you are good yo earn
You can bet on sports but it is more like investing than gamble,.Before you need to learn how to do that

AquaPanda

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Wow man. Wow. That is a very in depth analysis of what all us gamblers want to be the case. But reality is you gamble, you lose money. you gamble some more, you lose more money. Then you gamble again and win big enough for it to matter. then you gamble some more and lose all that money.

TriggerX

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It's really dependent on the time you're talking about. Sure, you could profit if you gamble for a year. It's unlikely, BUT it is possible. It's just that the house edge has a slightly higher chance of winning than the average gambler and that's how they make money. It is possible for a gambler to profit, in the long run, but you also have to remember it's more likely for a gambler to lose in the long run.

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: vendetahome on November 14, 2015, 05:49:33 PM

thats some interesting readings i hope you are right as i am playing gambling games a lot and it would be cool to make a casino go bancrupt

Man it doesnt depend on me, It depends on your luck and the casinos luck.

Quote from: FrostStick on November 14, 2015, 05:50:36 PM

It is possible that your winning streak will continue infinitely but the chances are very, very, very slim.

Again, infinite is an exxageration. People gamble a finite amount of times.

Quote from: 98problems on November 14, 2015, 06:05:38 PM

i highly doubt it the casinos are made to have the house edge which would lead people into loosing all their money

It's not the casino losing the money, but 1 group of gamblers losing to another group. The casino only takes his comission.

Topic: Gambling can be profitable in the long run! It is possible! - page 52. (Read 37333 times)