Topic: GAMBLING: Skill-based vs. Chance-based - page 17. (Read 2402 times)

My point is that the player must clearly understand the difference. If he wants to make money, then he can try skill-based games. If he wants entertainment, then he must gamble (and almost certainly lose money). But if a person does not understand the difference and rashly starts to gamble, then I consider this an unacceptable risk and it will be good (for him) if he loses.

Risk is a part doing gambling so that's already given whether a gambler plays at skill-based or luck-based games.

As long as these gamblers know what are they up to, it's fine to gamble at both.

Forcing themselves to play at those games where they aren't used to just because they saw someone won profit at it shouldn't be their reason why they are doing gambling on those particular games.

I don't know how to save themself if they always make it.
If you only base about luck or having luck, then you'll go into Luck-based game. But you are trying to apply your skills and knowledge in a particular game, then skilled-based game suited for you.

Even if you have a lot of money and willing to lose either, but something we feel imbalance if we just keep losing. Might not ask ourselves why not to have this one knowing that there is a big chance to win on there? We need to be smart also in some other ways.

Ok, let's see using not some sites, but math and theory of probability (I don't tell that information on sites is wrong or something like that, but maybe want to improve my skill in probability and maybe it will be interesting for you. Also, i want to check is my calculations will match with site information).

AA against ANY another pair:

In this example i will take situation where you have AA on your hands and going ALL in in preflop.

What outcomes can be:

There any the same card for you or your opponent - you win
There another A for you - you win with set
There another card for your opponent and no card for you - opponent wins with set
There card for you opponent and A for you - you win with higher set.

So, as we see, AA is really strong hand (opponent will win only in 1 against 3 outcomes). But what about language of numbers?

It's obvious, that full outcome consists of two probabilities: you win or opponent win. Together they create a full space of outcomes (100 % outcome). (For honest, i don't know how it correct calls in english, in russian it will be - пoлнaя гpyппa coбытий)

To make our goal easier, it will be better to count a chance for opponent's hand to win (otherwise we need to calculate 1, 2, and 4 probabilities and to add them).
This chance consists of two parts: a chance to get another card which connect with his hand AND a chance that you do not get another A (this chance, with chance to get A also creates full space of outcome, so if chance to get A is 15 %, this will be 85 )

Less words, more numbers!
1. A chance to get AT LEAST one card: 2/48 (full deck 52, and we don't count his cards and your hand) + 2/47 + 2/46 + 2/45 + 2/44 = 0.041 + 0.042 + 0.043 + 0.044 + 0.045 = 21,5 % . But this will be a little wrong calculation, let me tell you why:
For example, we have two snipers, and question "What a probability that at least (OR) one sniper will hit his target? Chance of the first sniper is - 0.8 and the second one - 0.5" As you can see, we can't just add them, because this will be 130 %, and this is idiotic. We should add them, besides one outcome, when they hit target both (yeah, this is the most complicated part, many can't understand why so). The probability this outcome will be multiplication of the chances this two snipers. 0.8 * 0.5 = 0.4 (or 40 %), so, the right answer will be = 0.8 + 0.5 - 0.4 = 0.9 ). yep, the correct formula depends from how full events interconnected one with the other in space of outcomes (sometimes it's correct just to add).
But our case is the same with two snipers. So we should to subtract the case when we have two card on the table (Four of the kind):
2/48 * (1/47 + 1/46 + 1/45 + 1/44) = 0.3 % (yep, that's less than 1 %)
21.5 - 0.3 = 21.2 %

And the chance for you to not get another A card: 100 % - chance to get (   ) because i count it before (21.2 %) it will be much faster = 100 - 21.2 = 88.8 %

And now, we need to multiplicate them (because we need TWO of this event to happen, meaning AND):
21.2 * 88.8 = 18.82 %


You were right - a chance for any another pair to win against AA is just 18.82 %

AND BECAUSE OF THIS MY ASSHOLE BURNS MUCH MORE WHEN I HAVE AA CALLING ALL IN AND A GUY WITH 33 WINS BECAUSE HE GET THIRD 3 ON RIVER  

P.S:
And yeah, mu calculations is enough close to what shows in this site, i'm satisfied  
And yeah, i found why they have 19.251 and I 18.82 . They do not substract the probability that you get Four of a kind. This is a little wrong mathematically, but logically this is correct (it is obvious that you win for sure with 3333)

P.P.S: But i don't agree that a chance for the opponent to win will depend on what pair he have on his hands. 33 or 99 or KK it doesn't matter (if i understood right, T9s means two nines

I also saw such cases. I agree that much depends on the person, but I think that it is best to avoid risk, because no one can be completely sure in own abilities or lack of addiction. Sometimes psychologically strong people in some aspects are amazingly weak in other aspects.

And what does it change?

Okay, there are many people talking all sorts of things on YouTube, and so what? My proposition still holds. If you knew something which you would consider valuable info, would you expatiate on that? Let me guess, you would keep your mouth shut instead. Moreover, you would likely start to spread bullshit to draw people's attention from the real stuff by creating all kinds of smokes and mirrors, with white noise probably being the best (just in case, I don't mean you personally)

You wouldn't just listen to one guy alone on youtube. There have to be multiple people reviewing whose going to win and not and from my experience, Joe Rogan sometimes will sometimes slip his bet to which fighter.

I sometimes read the comments of the weigh-ins video on youtube to see which one they bet also. Quite interesting people out there and that I sometimes learn the condition of the fighter and which fighter who doesn't box the way they use to.

No, not just for beginners but for all the gamblers who look for making entertainments from gambling, those chance/luck based gambling are the first preferences. Skill based gambling are known for being profitable but I tried them but never got chances to hit profits then I stopped trying them as I am very much comfortable with luck based gambling. They are instant and stress-buster compared to those skill based gambling types.

I recommend skill based gambling for all the gamblers who want to adopt gambling as part of their income stream and luck based gambling for the people who want to kill their boredom. Do not mix and not get yourself confused. Gamblers for this, first need to identify themselves what they actually want from gambling and then must need to choose the right type of gambling .

I will only say that I agree with your assumptions. Both are the same, only a few things are different and that is an effort. Efforts to get a win in this type of gambling based on skills are the experience and knowledge applied when facing opposition from opponents. But that also doesnt guarantee victory all the time because it has to do with "luck".

It is this factor that continues to cling to gamblers regardless of the basis of their play as a skill-based game or a luck-based game. Although it is a bit different, especially in terms of style of play, but the luck factor will continue to exist in both.

I wouldn't trust anything you hear there (and half of what you see)

These people can say one thing and then do the opposite. Why so and how come? Just try to put yourself in their place. Would you share with anyone truly insider info on which you could earn dough? I guess that not. So why do you seriously expect somebody to tell the world the truth provided they know the truth in the first place? Put differently, be aware that you may be intentionally fed a piece of information that has little connection to how things are really going. That would be a deliberate piece of misinformation according to my book

Sometimes you just have to listen to the analyst particularly to boxing analyst if you have been a boxing fan. You don't really need to somehow become a boxer to bet a boxing match.  There are youtube channels that actually provide a lot of insights to a near boxing match and even to UFC fights, you just need to listen to them. It will bore you to death if you are not a fan but if you are betting for about 1ETH, it may make you listen to what they are saying. They may say one fighter has a better chance of winning because this one just came back from a broken leg operation.

Into the world of gambling, I thought we are the same or both being a skilled base and chance base. In skilled base, if we want to play gambling it not all about you now the mechanics of the game instead you have additional knowledge came from your research and experience for all of your games which makes you stronger because you gained more knowledge than your opponents. A chance base because not all the time the luck is with us and this is having too much pressure when you face another player that is good and better to you sometimes those players can conquer the whole game and ruin your focus and goal to make more money that's why I think we are both of that kind of gambler.


It is better too if you will play the game that is you are a professional and export to avoid getting too much lose because one of the goals of the gambler is to make earning don't risk your self and your money if you are not comfortable to the game you are playing with.

I think it does not necessarily mean you will bet on your favorite team instead at least you have idea what will happen to the game.

Because we are talking gambling here not specifically the game so you will analyze what is the stand of your favorite team if they can beat the opponent or not since you already knew their capacity and same as the other team

^ Skill-based and Chance based gambling are both games that don't give any assurance of winning regardless of how skillful a player is or how often that a combination strikes on a particular game still it will only provide you chances of winning. Luck is the only tool that can give anyone an assurance of winning, for a skill base gambling most of the time people think that a player is good enough for the games because of the experience and knowledge that he has for the game in fact some people tend to avoid playing of this player because of his skill but still being a skilled or experienced player doesn't guarantee of every day winning there are times that they left gambling with no winnings at all and they would just say "not my lucky day". Chance based gambling often we see it really like a game of luck for the winning doesn't directly depend on us instead on the game itself however skills in this type of game can be an advantage like having the knowledge on the combination and how often it strikes can be used to have a higher chance of winning. Nevertheless, both gambling type brings enjoyment, and choosing from these two may depend on the personality of players whether if they want a game that will challenge their skills like me or just a gambling game that will make you wait for the result.

If you'll gonna ask me, I think playing gambling is not just skill-based but also chance-based because not all the time you can win the game even if you are a pro gamer there will be a time that your win streak cam be a lose streak too most especially in betting for example in 2018 NBA championship, a lot of people have been bet for Golden State Warriors hoping that they can win again against the Cavaliers but everything has an end their win streak has been broken by the Cavaliers that's why many people got dismayed.

Wrong example, if that is only the basis to succeed in gambling, then definitely sports betting will not be challenging for the sports betting.
The sad reality is, when always bet on your favorite team, you are likely to lose, because it will make you bias and you'll not be able to analyze it realistically since you are bias.

Things my change depend on game you are playing and the knowledge and skill you have in the said game.

Like for example if you are a Basketball fan for long time,maybe you can at least have bigger chance of winning if you bet in sportsbet specially if the team is your favorite.

But for me?i will gamble either of he 2 because i love to bet for fun and have no big desire of winning though only stupid person that will deny going home with good money in their pocket.

My perception on this relies on the fact that web games are hard to predict. That is why I said that gambling online for me is based on chances.
Regarding to gambling personally, it needs that skill.
Also, what kind of game you play is another factor.
Respect to all gamblers, it also amuses me.

The lucky will come to the right person, and no matter we try, if we are not luck, we will not have a chance to win in gambling. But we can have the opportunity to win in gambling in the skills-based if we have a skill in that game. But we still need the luck to win no matter if that is skills-based gambling game or chance-based gambling game. So you need to think twice before you choose the gambling games you want to play.

Knowing the impossible thing about gambling's probability to win, there's nothing to argue with it. When all situation is based on luck, I guess that doesn't matter if you're having the skills or not but chance is all that matters most if you're the lucky one. Of course luck was only a random state and no one can able to predict it actually.