Topic: Gambling with entropy (Chaos) (Read 1060 times)

Yeah, it may be true that waves of luck come after a certain period of equilibrium play when you win and lose approximately equally. However, it seems to me that different players have a certain ratio of the time of the equilibrium play period and the game, how to say it, probably "on a wave of luck/bad luck". And this ratio may completely or partially depend on the state of the psyche and perception of a person and on his psychotype. Therefore, for some players, the game itself is a constant change of these very waves of luck and bad luck. And for others, it seems like there is only one equilibrium play.
Although I do not know any players who would not at least sometimes encounter these waves. Most likely, such do not exist.

I have discussed this topic with other users in the past and I'm talking from my own experience, for me it feels like that, when we are in a good streak we will get the wins back to back, and when there is no luck, then it will be loses all the way, but is just my perception, maybe it's random, sometimes are like waves and some times are more in the equilibrium of win/lose.

By the way, here is a rather interesting question about how true is the statement that in any gambling game luck comes in waves. However, as well as a wave of failure and losses. Many players know from their own experience that this is approximately how it happens. Or is this question still completely connected with the peculiarities of the psychological perception of the game itself and still the initial attitude of the player to win or lose predetermines his gaming actions and thus prolongs the corresponding wave of luck or, accordingly, a wave of losses. I think that almost every player in his gaming history has encountered such a phenomenon as a rather long streak of luck. As well as a streak of failure.

Even if events are independent from each other, chaos in gambling has some rules that we can confirm in the long run. A good example is the plinko distribution curve. It comes from a random process but the result is really close on each run of multiple bets.


Trading is different, I agree with you on the point that news affects the markets, but the fact that whales can manipulate the markets by moving big amounts is a human decision and not a random process.

I have discussed this with multiple users, even with casino owners, and they don't think luck comes in waves. But there is a universal rule for gambling, You can't always win and you can't always lose, but since it's a random process you will lose on a bad streak and you can win on a good streak.

It persistently seems to me that there is some element of common sense in taking into account the laws of entropy in calculations of future options for resolving issues, including in such an area as gambling.  Among other things, it is apparently worth taking into account the option of wave movement of bet parameters in games and the time intervals of these wave changes.  In other words, periodicity and some repeatability of events.  I think that it is probably still possible, with a probability clearly greater than 50%, to predict the course of events in matters of bet sizes or in matters of predicting future winning bets.  So OP is probably still doing interesting research and may well figure it out and even succeed a little.  Therefore, I wish him to continue to engage in this research whenever possible.

This is a very interesting approach and I only came to find about this a moment ago. I need to study the whole thread first and see what people had contributed, but I wonder whether you were able to already draw some conclusions for yourself?

When events are independent from each other and purely luck based, why do you think you could add some structure to the "data" by infusing some entropy?

I did some research for myself on the relation of entropy on fundamental analysis and technical analysis in trading. Since we have news incoming everyday and according to the information efficiency hypothesis these news have an influence on the price, I wanted to see how the impact of the news decrease in significance by giving the news an entropy parameter. For instance, "China bans Bitcoin" today is not causing as much entropy as per the information efficiency hypothesis as it did a decade ago. But I am not yet done. My point is that there is probably more likely a reproducible way to include entropy into some formula as it is in a purely luck-based outcome environment.

You said chaos comes in waves for the casino, but are you talking about individual users or the entire user base? Because how would it be possible that all players choose to bet either low or big in a certain period of time? 

This is probably what the result should have been.  By the way, I don’t really like the Martingale strategy either.  You are probably right that you are using the strategy you wrote about. 

But in general, as I understand it, you are simply interested in driving such a bot yourself, even if it does not provide any serious income.  And I understand you.  This is truly interesting entertainment and food for thought on what else can be improved or changed. 
And that’s why I wish you to continue to have fun like this.  In a global sense, this is also a game of chance. 

It's gambling, we can't always win, i made some profit in one account and have lost in other one, but in the end i made some cash form it, maybe i get another of those crazy runs this year, who knows?


I could say the last improvement on this bot was to change the x3000 for x10000, it's harder to hit, but when it does it pays huge, i have hit that multiplier like 8 times in thousands of bets.

And i have been playing with other codes, i like the +1 on the bet and +1 on the multiplier method... let's say you start with $2 on x2, then $3 x3, $4 x4, $5 x5... and i like that method because it's better than martingale, in the end of the run we will get the 50% of the total run price while in martingale we only get the amount of the first bet back.



and starting from 0.0000001 you can leave the bot running for hours... with a low amount as 1 clam.

 

Now we are all already living in the new year 2024. By the way, I wish everyone a Happy New Year!   But the time is coming to take stock of the past 2023.  That's why the question is for the respected OP.  What are the results of your race with the help of your bot in 2023?  Did you manage to make a lot of money? 

And of course, the question is: are you improving your invention, is work continuing to improve the algorithms or any other improvements?

Well that leads to the fact that you’ll have some reasonable amount of money to embark on this your not journey and most times I don’t toy with every dime I make and that’s why I gamble responsibly but nevertheless I would have loved to give your bot a trial but I don’t have any reasonable amount to gamble away now but frankly I’m not a fan of bot just as I’ve stated before but I hope to see more of your success stories.
Good luck.

I make some nice profit with that method, my account information is public:

https://just-dice.com/user/3016116

The last big win was +18550.4 with a 1.87 bet on x9900 https://just-dice.com/roll/6162464236

After that i stop using that account. After that i make the mistake of chasing the biggest win of the year +24k but getting greedy without luck is always a mistake, i was chasing the multiplier x30,000 with 1 clam, but i couldn't hit it and that take my second account down to -28k (https://just-dice.com/user/622).

At least was fun to run a bot who chase the max win on the site, i keep chasing it time to time, and the only way to hit is by trying.

I myself think there is no strategy in this case, the strategy or pattern that does exist but I'm not sure that it will get a definite victory, some people do believe in existing strategies and patterns to get victory, I also repeatedly use patterns that are said to make it easier to get victory, and the results remain the same, only defeat is obtained. therefore I do not believe in strategies or patterns to facilitate victory so that it can be obtained, I only believe in luck that favors. and in my opinion the existing strategy or pattern is just nonsense not to facilitate victory in can. the fact is like that, the host will not give an easy victory, they will drain the wallet of the players.

The fact is like that, the host will not give an easy victory, they will drain the players' wallets to the end. even if the patterns and strategies can really make it easier to win, maybe there won't be many people who lose a lot of money. it is likely that some of the many people will get a victory because they use existing strategies and patterns.

Wise and responsible betting should always be the way out irrespective of the strategy we have and over the time,  I’ve always know that strategies always fade off along the line as time goes on and I don’t actually enjoy using bots for gambling not even for trading and since I’m personally not a heavy gambler, I think I don’t like bothering myself with bits and the rest of that.
@ op it seems to stay profitable with your bot, one might need some reasonable amount of money right ? If yes then I have to pull out because I only gamble with relatively very small amount of money at a time.

Good luck and it seems you’re already making a lot of profits with consistency in what you do.

they are all interesting bots and very useful calculations for understanding the mechanism of a bet but no matter how hard you try it is not possible to win more than was predicted from the initial odds

I don't think there is one scheme that is more convenient than another, in fact it is not mathematically possible but it is absolutely true that variance can create big problems for a casino

Of course, I live in the real world and understand the utopian nature of such a solution to the issue on the part of the government and the casino. 
Moreover, now with the introduction of CBDC in many countries, the anonymity of any payments is completely lost. 
However, the issue of maintaining anonymous payments is still important, and I still hope that some reasonable solution will be found on a global scale.  And many players in casinos using cryptocurrencies will be spared the need to constantly provide their personal data for each new casino with a license.  Moreover, in such a form as, for example, a video of a person, simultaneously documents and at the same time a monitor screen with transactions and clearly visible public addresses of cryptocurrency wallets.  And similar nonsense.

The benefit from provably fair games is the fact that you can modify your user seed (to avoid the casino choosing the next rolls for you) and you can verify each roll, making from that a fair gambling session. And that's a benefit to the user because he knows the casino is not cheating. If you compare these provably fair games with slots you will see the difference between letting luck choose the rolls and letting the casino do it.

The provable fair was made to make the game fair, but not to make the users win, remember, the casinos have a house edge, and that's what makes them win in the long run.

Bots in gambling, it's an easy mission but it doesn't require basic measures, consider easy techniques involved in the system. No bets is assured a legit or trustworthy one because the system comprises of volatility and spending our time and money on the system, it means we have targets to meet and not underestimating any phase in the system, we just have to learn from every step taken and proceeds to the final stages that will results in profits. Bets are unique in their special ways, not everyone can easily adapts to gambling because of its broad range.

Like people says, the Ruth is better and that is what we need to understand so that we don't fall victim to what casino owners will keep saying that they ahvw probably fair casino games for users to benefit from. There is no way someone will create something for a use and will not utilize a way they can earn from the same thing. Gambling is a good not just for luck but for us to understand what we are doing so that we can understand the way we could earn at the say time gambling.

Yes, it sounds a little bit utopian, but that would be the most reasonable solution for all the parties involved. Unfortunately, not all the parties have the same negotiation power, or awareness of the problem. Maybe with time, when people gets angry because of so many data leaks, more of them will demand a solution like that.

Perhaps you are right that some kind of identification of the player, such as ticking his age from the intervals of 10 years proposed in the table and confirming with a tick that the player is over 18 years old, would be sufficient to replace this mandatory KYC with photographs of the face and documents.  Now, if, in the process of transforming player identification, at least part of the casino gradually began to refuse to request photos of documents and the player’s face, for example, calling such a procedure KYC (but in a super-lightened form), I would consider this a good and significant advance and progress in the development of the gambling industry  games in general.  Or, for example, identification solely by email address with the player’s response that he is 18+ years old and no other data.  In this case, a communication channel is also maintained for some individual requests and responses from the casino.  And also call it lightweight KYC, in order to fulfill the requirements of the law.  In all these cases, confidentiality is maintained in a form acceptable to the player and at the same time legal requirements are (partially) fulfilled. 

I think that these are the best options for players when they use cryptocurrency payments exclusively in games. 
And this is the optimal compromise between the casino, the player and the regulatory authorities.